Thursday, July 31, 2008

The Problem With Lakewood Ranch

What would I advise those looking for office space in Lakewood Ranch? Get it while you can.

Rents have sunk to incredible new lows in this upscale commercial enclave just east of I-75. The situation has grown so desperate, in fact, that I just finished up a lease where the owners offered one entire year of free rent to a new tenant. Upfront. Although this was a bit of an anomaly, I see similar things in store for this beleaguered area if things don't improve relatively soon. In the end, we ended up leasing the space to a national non-profit organization and they offered to pay rent for the entire term. To underscore the significance of this, when I stood up and pitched the unit at the Commercial Investment Division's (CID) monthly broker meeting in June, there were audible gasps from other brokers in attendance. What's more, I was fielding at least two calls per week from other agents who wanted it "out of the way." Although I wasn't there, I'm told the existence of this property was of particular note at the last Manatee EDC vacancy meeting.

So this is what happens when you have a perfect storm of a crummy economy, rising commodity prices, overbuilt office space and high pass-through expenses. People shopping for office space in Lakewood are well educated as to the vacancy situation out there and use that knowledge to their advantage. Owners of these vacant properties are hamstrung, at least for now until enough of it gets absorbed that rents can start swinging back in the other direction. There is some very nice Class-A office space available in Lakewood for $11 and $12 per foot currently. Do I think those are fair prices reflective of the product being offered? Not really, but the owners of these buildings have to do what they have to do in these challenging times. Better to have someone paying some rent, plus expenses. than it sitting vacant bleeding money month after month. I do feel that base rents are as close to bottom as they're going to get, but I'm just one guy with an opinion.

The other issue here is that, with such cheap rents, landlords run the added risk of attracting and renting out their spaces to less than credit-worthy tenants. Cheap rent oftentimes attracts the shaky, less than stellar renter. The potential problems these bargain basement tenants introduce could end up being worse than allowing the place to stay vacant a little longer. Tenants who shop solely on price alone are not always the most desirable. Be careful.

How long do I think this situation will last? Probably another year or so before we start seeing some turn around out there. I would advise tenants who are on the fence about leasing space in Lakewood that the big price cuts have probably already been made. I'd also advise them they should get what they can now because the cheap rent ain't gonna last forever.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Blackberry Curve and some apps

Went from a clunker Treo 650 > BB 8703e > Curve. Verizon gave me a great deal on this with a 4gb Micro SD card and Seido holster. HUGE improvement from the 8703e. I've had clients picking on me for the fact I had an old phone that looked like it was 10 years old and large enough to be considered a weapon.

It was this or a 3G iPhone...lack of copy/paste on the iPhone sealed the deal. I'm not exactly sold on the lack of a keyboard, either. Even some dyed-in-the-wool Apple fans like Leo LaPorte went back to the Blackberry.

The other thing I'm enjoying is eTrade's Blackberry only application called eTrade Mobile. You may have seen the humorous commercials about this service. Ran pretty well on my old 8703 and seems just as stable on the Curve. Streams quotes and allows trades. Like the baby said. :)



I will agree the Blackberry platform does need a real browser like the iPhone. The Internet is where the iPhone shines.

Retail and Office Delinquencies Shoot Up

From CoStar:


Increased volatility in the office and retail sectors have led to a two basis point increase in U.S. CMBS delinquencies, according to the latest Fitch Ratings loan delinquency index. While overall delinquencies increased only mildly for the fifth consecutive month, the retail and office sectors led the index with net increases of $70.5 million and $62.2 million, respectively.

Despite relatively stable performance to date, Fitch remains concerned about the retail sector.

"An increase in retail bankruptcies and a continued decline in consumer disposable income are evident, though they have yet to impact retail performance," said Susan Merrick, managing director of Fitch. "High energy and commodity prices, rising unemployment, housing market weakness, and lower credit availability continue to negatively impact retail sales and are expected to dampen retail sector growth going forward. Recent store closings, including continued bankruptcy filings of tenants such as specialty retailer Linens 'n Things and discount-apparel retailer Steve & Barry's, will impact retail performance."

Retail loan delinquencies increased 25.7%...Click here for the rest of the article.
Colonial Bank Purchases New Branch in Osprey

28 July, 2008 - Colonial Bank N.A. (NYSE: CNB), has purchased an approximately 2,900 square foot condo at 24 East Bay Street, Unit 11, Building A-3, Osprey, Florida from Bay Street Partners, LLC for $1,455,725. Colonial's new branch, which includes two drive through lanes is expected to open sometime in 2009. Anthony V. Migliore and Paul Klick of Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT represented Colonial Bank and Ray Rodriquez of Florida Rays Realty represented the seller.

"This just underscores the fact that there is positive news with regard to banks expanding in this economy," says Migliore who represented Colonial Bank. "This is a strategically important site for my client."

The Colonial BancGroup, Inc., is a $27 billion financial services company headquartered in Montgomery, Ala. Its common stock is traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol CNB. They are both a Fortune 400 Platinum Company as well as a Fortune Global 1000 company. Colonial currently has more than 340 banking offices in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Texas.

Colonial Bank: http://www.colonialbank.com
Coldwell Banker Commercial NRT: http://www.cbcworldwide.com

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Proscenium A Go Go

The Herald's reporting the city has given the go-ahead to the massive Proscenium project on 41 downtown.

From the article:

"In adopting plans for a Hospitality Regional Activity Center and a "proportional fair share agreement" for the planned $1 billion real estate development, commissioners opted for jobs and tax revenue over fears of congestion.

Proscenium, with office space and shops, more than 200 upscale condominiums and an 800-seat theater, is expected to generate roughly $2.8 million a year in property taxes and house more than 1,000 workers -- though many will likely come from existing office users -- when completed in 2011."

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