Commercial Activity Predicted To Pick Up, Values Stagnant

Latest report from The CoStar group shows we're possibly headed toward some increase in transactional activity. I'm busier than I've been in over a year and have plenty of prospects and deals in the pipeline - so many at this point that I'm able to cherry pick. The upcoming plays WILL be in distressed assets. That doesn't look too positive for the private sellers out there as they'll have to compete with the flood of foreclosed assets being unloaded.

CRE Sales Will Pick Up, But Values Expected to Stay Flat Through '12
Jones Lang LaSalle Study Finds Banks Will Eventually Be Forced to Stop Delaying REO Foreclosures and Begin Taking Back the Keys of Distressed Assets

By Randyl Drummer
September 9, 2009
Credit markets for office, industrial, retail, hotel and multifamily property should see the effects of a gradual return of liquidity during the second half of 2009, Jones Lang LaSalle predicted in its U.S. Midyear Capital Markets Bulletin released last week.

In it, and in a separate report on global market performance issued this week, JLL noted that several trends are expected to help begin to restore capital markets over the next year, including the $33 billion in equity raised and $5 billion in debt issued through the first eight months of 2009 by global REITs. Also, with the world economy starting to recover, JLL noted foreign real estate investors are again circling select U.S. markets, and real estate companies are finally tapping into government programs such as the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). For the first time in what seems like ages, meanwhile, the gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers is starting to narrow in the third quarter, JLL executives said.

But while all that may sound great, "it is unlikely that any true debt liquidity will return to the market until mid-2010 at the earliest" with the recession and unemployment continuing to batter occupancies and drive down rents, cautioned Kenneth Rudy, president of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Capital Markets practice.

Still, that may be welcome news to investors battered by the dramatic decline in U.S. property sales and prices that occurred in the first half of 2009. According to CoStar data, the value of Class A office buildings declined by 57% in the first half of 2009 compared with prices paid at the peak of the market in 2007. Industrial and institutional-grade retail property sales declined even more sharply, falling 71% sand 86.5%, respectively, since their 2007 peaks.

By mid-2010, JLL predicts investor interest in U.S. markets will slowly begin to return. But transaction activity likely won't reach the dizzying levels of the 2005-07 market "for a generation or longer," Josh Gelormini, vice president of capital markets research, tells CoStar Advisor. And that may not be such a bad thing for players who manage to fight another day after surviving the current downturn, following an era in which cheap and easy credit and overzealous speculation led to the latest and worst commercial real estate price bubble.

"We're definitely still in early stages of the distressed asset game, working out the assets most likely to have been bought during the boom years, and it's going to take a while to work itself out," Gelormini said. "The fact that large investors around the world are starting to see attractive values and act on the opportunities will help speed the process some, but it will still take several quarters for sales activity to stabilize."

"Although we feel transaction volumes have very likely bottomed and will be turning upward the next quarter or two, values will still have some more downward pressure into next year before we see stabilization."

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