Wave of Retail Bankruptcies and Closings On The way

From Bloomberg. 73,000 stores may close after the new year and before June of 2009 according to ICSC. Expect a lot more vacancy. Read on.

Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings

By Heather Burke

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.

Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Talbots Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. are among chains shuttering underperforming locations.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc., Sharper Image Corp. and Steve & Barry’s LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Investors will start seeing a wide variety of chains seeking bankruptcy protection in February when they file financial reports, said Burt Flickinger.

“You’ll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi- regionally or nationally go out,” Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a retail-industry consulting firm in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “There are a number that are real causes for concern.”

Sales at stores open at least a year probably dropped as much as 2 percent in November and December, the ICSC said last week, more than the previously projected 1 percent decline. That would be the largest drop since at least 1969, when the New York-based trade group started tracking data. Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are among retailers that will report December results on Jan. 8.

Women’s Clothing, Electronics

Consumers spent at least 20 percent less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry during November and December, according to data from SpendingPulse.

Retail Metrics Inc.’s December comparable-store sales index will drop an estimated 1.2 percent, or 5 percent excluding Wal- Mart Stores Inc. Retailers’ fourth-quarter earnings may fall 19 percent on average, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline, according to Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a Swampscott, Massachusetts-based consulting firm.

Probably 50,000 stores could close without any effect on consumer choice, Gregory Segall, a managing partner at buyout firm Versa Capital Management Inc., said this month during a panel discussion held at Bloomberg LP’s New York offices. Only retailers with healthy balance sheets will survive the recession, according to Matthew Katz, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.

Store Closings

The ICSC predicts, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, that 148,000 stores will shut down in 2008. That would be the largest number since 151,000 closings in 2001, during the last recession, according to ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira. The total number of retail establishments will decline by about 3 percent this year, also taking into account locations that were opened, he said. The U.S. had 1.11 million retail locations in 2002.

Another 73,000 locations may shut their doors in the first part of 2009, Niemira said.

The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter at a 0.5 percent annual pace, the worst since 2001, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of December forecast the world’s largest economy will contract through the first half of 2009.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index has shed 34 percent this year, with only two of its 27 companies rising.

The index doesn’t include Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, which fell 24 cents to $55.11 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Wal-Mart shares have gained 18 percent this year.

Discount Advantage

“If you’re going to be in retail right now, the discount space is where you want to be,” Patrick McKeever, a senior equity analyst at MKM Partners LLC, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Discounts of 70 percent or more by Macy’s, AnnTaylor Stores Inc. and other retailers failed to prevent a spending drop of as much as 4 percent during the final two months of the year, according to data from SpendingPulse. Retailers’ pricing models are being challenged by consumers, according to Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California.

“The whole pricing system is becoming an old-fashioned bazaar,” Hastings said today in a telephone interview. “They’re going into the stores and they’re looking at the stuff and they’re saying ‘You know what? I know that that price is way too high,’ and they have figured out that the signage doesn’t mean that much.”

Retail bankruptcies may help the industry in the long run, according to Flickinger.

“We’ll be going from a Dickens-esque worst of times this December to the best of times in future Decembers because we’ll rationalize out all the redundant retailers and retail space in shopping centers,” Flickinger said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in New York at hburke2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 29, 2008 16:17 EST

LINK

At Wa-Mu, EVERYTHING Was Approved

The stories are just starting to trickle out. Meth-snorting loan officers approving pretty much anything. Of particular interest locally because it mentions Bay area Wa-Mu locations, including Sarasota.

In 10 years there will be plenty of books written and plenty of perspective on exactly how insane the whole thing was.

From the New York Times (registration required):

The Reckoning
By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans
By PETER S. GOODMAN and GRETCHEN MORGENSON

“We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.”

— Kerry K. Killinger, chief executive of Washington Mutual, 2003

SAN DIEGO — As a supervisor at a Washington Mutual mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons was accustomed to seeing baby sitters claiming salaries worthy of college presidents, and schoolteachers with incomes rivaling stockbrokers’. He rarely questioned them. A real estate frenzy was under way and WaMu, as his bank was known, was all about saying yes.

Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer.

Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.

“I’d lie if I said every piece of documentation was properly signed and dated,” said Mr. Parsons, speaking through wire-reinforced glass at a California prison near here, where he is serving 16 months for theft after his fourth arrest — all involving drugs.

While Mr. Parsons, whose incarceration is not related to his work for WaMu, oversaw a team screening mortgage applications, he was snorting methamphetamine daily, he said.

“In our world, it was tolerated,” said Sherri Zaback, who worked for Mr. Parsons and recalls seeing drug paraphernalia on his desk. “Everybody said, ‘He gets the job done.’ ”

At WaMu, getting the job done meant lending money to nearly anyone who asked for it — the force behind the bank’s meteoric rise and its precipitous collapse this year in the biggest bank failure in American history.

On a financial landscape littered with wreckage, WaMu, a Seattle-based bank that opened branches at a clip worthy of a fast-food chain, stands out as a singularly brazen case of lax lending. By the first half of this year, the value of its bad loans had reached $11.5 billion, nearly tripling from $4.2 billion a year earlier.

Interviews with two dozen former employees, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and appraisers reveal the relentless pressure to churn out loans that produced such results. While that sample may not fully represent a bank with tens of thousands of people, it does reflect the views of employees in WaMu mortgage operations in California, Florida, Illinois and Texas.

Their accounts are consistent with those of 89 other former employees who are confidential witnesses in a class action filed against WaMu in federal court in Seattle by former shareholders.

According to these accounts, pressure to keep lending emanated from the top, where executives profited from the swift expansion — not least, Kerry K. Killinger, who was WaMu’s chief executive from 1990 until he was forced out in September.

Between 2001 and 2007, Mr. Killinger received compensation of $88 million, according to the Corporate Library, a research firm. He declined to respond to a list of questions, and his spokesman said he was unavailable for an interview.

During Mr. Killinger’s tenure, WaMu pressed sales agents to pump out loans while disregarding borrowers’ incomes and assets, according to former employees. The bank set up what insiders described as a system of dubious legality that enabled real estate agents to collect fees of more than $10,000 for bringing in borrowers, sometimes making the agents more beholden to WaMu than they were to their clients.

WaMu gave mortgage brokers handsome commissions for selling the riskiest loans, which carried higher fees, bolstering profits and ultimately the compensation of the bank’s executives. WaMu pressured appraisers to provide inflated property values that made loans appear less risky, enabling Wall Street to bundle them more easily for sale to investors.

“It was the Wild West,” said Steven M. Knobel, a founder of an appraisal company, Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson, that did business with WaMu until 2007. “If you were alive, they would give you a loan. Actually, I think if you were dead, they would still give you a loan.”

Click here to read the rest of the article.

CRE Developers Looking for Bailout, Commercial Defaults to Triple

Looks like we're heading toward critical mass. I hate being the bearer of bad news again, but there isn't much positive news out there to report. As the Sarasota Herald article stated, seems like we're in for a bumpy 2009. I expect to see a lot of property hit the market in the next 13 months at prices once unthinkable.

US developers seek aid from government

By Bloomberg News | December 23, 2008

NEW YORK - The biggest property developers in the United States are asking to be included in the federal government's efforts to jump-start commercial lending, said Jeff DeBoer, president of the Washington-based Real Estate Roundtable.

The help could come through a new $200 billion loan program established to aid the market for car loans, student loans, and credit-card debt, or through a separate pool that would allow property owners to refinance mortgages, DeBoer said. The group represents property owners, developers, lenders, and management companies.

About $270 billion of mortgages on shopping malls, apartment complexes, and office buildings must be refinanced in 2009, according to Barclays estimates. Commercial loan defaults will accelerate as banks and insurance companies rein in lending to manage their balance sheets and as the market for commercial mortgage-backed securities stays shut, Fitch Ratings said in a Nov. 17 report.

"They are trying to alert members of Congress and the public to a very serious problem that is coming," DeBoer said of the developers. "Until the credit markets function again, this could be a serious problem."

Commercial mortgages are usually written for a period of five to 10 years with the expectation they will then be refinanced, DeBoer said. That can't happen currently because banks are reluctant to lend.

Under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, or TALF, the Federal Reserve has agreed to lend to some holders of securities backed by "newly and recently originated" loans. The loans include those for education, cars, and credit cards.

The Fed intends to have TALF running by February and has said it may expand it to commercial mortgages.

Mitchell Hersh, chief executive of Mack-Cali Realty Corp., declined to comment. A spokeswoman for Richard Clark, CEO of Brookfield Properties Corp., Lower Manhattan's largest landlord, said Clark was unavailable.

Commercial property prices fell 2.4 percent in October, Moody's said in a report yesterday. The Moody's/REAL commercial property price index, which tracks prices nationwide for offices, stores, warehouses, and apartments based on repeat sales, is now 11.5 percent below its October 2007 peak, according to the report.

US commercial properties at risk of default could triple if rental income from office, retail, and apartment buildings drops even 5 percent, according to research by real estate analysts at New York-based Reis Inc.

LINK

A Not So Happy 2009? Yep.

I made the local paper today with an article predicting the year ahead. For perspective, I did fairly well in 2008 but, like a lot of other folks in my business down here, many of us are concerned about the prospects for the year ahead. I don't know if I agree with a 50% drop in values over the year, but I can see some significant price cuts in BOTH lease rates and square-footage selling prices.

From the Sarasota Herald Tribune:

Unhappy new year for commercial Analysts say this real estate sector faces the biggest challenges in '09

By Michael Braga

Published: Monday, December 22, 2008 at 1:00 a.m.

The commercial real estate market has suffered this year as total sales and lease rates of everything from shopping centers to car dealerships have fallen.

But if you think things were bad this year, just wait until 2009.

"The next meltdown we are going to see is in commercial," said Gordon Hester, a Siesta hard-money lender whose customers include both commercial and residential developers. "The value of commercial real estate will probably drop 50 to 60 percent."

Investors began pouring money into commercial real estate in 2006, just after the residential real estate market peaked. Like residential investors, these commercial players abandoned the notion that properties need to kick off enough revenue to cover carrying costs, Hester said.

Instead, they banked on the bet that real estate could be purchased for one price and sold for a much higher price in a relatively short period.

"Now investors are only willing to pay based in returns," Hester said. "For that to shake out, values have to drop."

Unfortunately, the end of the "appreciation model" in commercial real estate coincides with one of the worst economic downturns since the 1930s.

Unemployment is up, consumer confidence and spending is down, and owners of shopping centers, hotels and office buildings are already feeling the pinch.

"After the Christmas season, we are going to see a ton of retailers and restaurants file for bankruptcy or go out of business," said Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach-based real estate consultant. "Obviously this will affect shopping centers and strip centers and the office market."

Sales dropping

The deterioration of the commercial real estate sector already is showing up in declining sales.

Only 89 properties in Sarasota County changed hands in 2008 for a total of $131.3 million, a 47.5 percent drop in sales volume from the 109 properties that sold for $250.3 million in 2007.

Office buildings saw the largest drop in dollar terms, followed by hotels and shopping centers.

"The whole thing is being driven by two things: the credit situation, which is nowhere at the moment, and investor confidence," said Stan Rutstein, a commercial agent with Re/Max in Bradenton.

Rutstein pointed to the fact that Nate Benderson, Nathan Forbes and the Taubman Cos. recently announced they were postponing construction of the new University Town Center Mall.

"If developers like Benderson, Forbes and Taubman, who are national scope, are being cautious -- if they don't want to take a risk -- then smaller players are not going to take a risk, either," Rutstein said. "Two-thousand nine is going to be a very challenging year."

Rutstein said that the only way commercial properties are going to move is if sellers come down hard on price. For example, a client who was offered $1.6 million from a bank for an acre near Wal-Mart in 2006, might only get $600,000 for that same property today.

"But there aren't any takers because banks are out of the market," Rutstein said.

The same downward trend is also affecting lease rates for both office and retail space, said Anthony Migliore, a commercial agent with Coldwell Banker in Sarasota.

"Landlords and owners are getting very reasonable," Migliore said. "There was one case in which the owners of an office building in Lakewood Ranch gave one year free rent to the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation in return for signing a long-term lease."

Of course, that is an extreme example, Migliore said. But it illustrates the kind of lengths landlords are willing to go to get space rented.

"They may not be able to sell the space, but at least they can get it leased and ride out the storm," Migliore said.

Vacancies on the rise

"If you are a shopping center owner and you evict someone this year, you're crazy," said George Huhn, a Venice-based commercial real estate agent. "Vacancies are going to go through the roof, and everyone will be competing for tenants."

A lot of landlords are opting to carry mom and pop retailers through the bad times with rent abatements, renegotiations of leases and forbearance agreements, Huhn said.

"They're just looking to keep the guy in business, because something is always better than nothing," Huhn said.

Retail sales in Sarasota County were down by nearly $70 million, or 11 percent, in September compared with the same month a year earlier, and that was before the financial crisis really took hold. So it is no wonder that retailers and landlords alike are struggling.

But as in the residential market where foreclosures have led to amazing deals for savvy investors, the collapse of the commercial real estate sector will provide ample opportunities for investors looking for deals.

"Banks already have commercial property available that they have foreclosed on," Rutstein said.

"A good amount of it is dirt that has plummeted in value."

For investors like Michael Averbuch, commercial land represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

"The biggest game in town is commercial land," Averbuch said. "Banks in Southwest Florida are nothing more than walking corpses. They are sitting on land and developer loans -- most of which are in default, and lot of that land will hit the market this year.

"The stuff is so distressed, that it can't get more distressed."

Anyone Care To Guess What THIS Will Do To Big Box Retail?

As much as I love technology, and I really love technology, I was frozen in my tracks after seeing this little gem of an application. Information is power, that's for sure.

Consider this: you're shopping for a television in a big box store. Let's say you find a 42" LCD that you love. The price is $1,499 in the store + sales tax. You whip out your Android-powered phone (i.e., Android = Google powered, it's available now at T-Mobile), scan the barcode of the product right there in the store and, within seconds, a list of online retailers shows up with the same product for $400 or $500 less with free shipping. Next to this is a button that says "Order Now?" What do you do? If it's me, I would order it from the online retailer without thinking twice and walk out of the store I was in. This is terrific and it is here NOW.



What struck me was the specter of what this kind of thing could do to brick and mortar retail. If physical stores cannot compete with this (and they cannot in my opinion), what will become of them? There are always people who will need things immediately (computer cables, DVDs, blank CDs, etc.), but when it comes to high margin stuff like televisions, digital cameras, and computers, life is about to become even tougher for retailers. Saving 30% and sometimes 50% by shopping online is pretty significant. Yes, buying products online has pretty much always been less expensive, but now a person can just point their phone at the product and have the information in seconds.

With the Apple iPhone and Amazon.com, all you need to do is take a photo of the product. They've gotten that smart. Pay attention to the video below at 1:17. Just take a photo of something like a TV and it will figure it out for you.



Will the world end up with fewer retailers and more fulfillment centers eventually? Time will tell and I would reason to guess we are headed in that direction. Not everyone uses this technology...yet. All it takes is a modest amount of consumers to stop buying high margin items from big box stores. Most of these stores are in trouble as it stands already and this could be the tipping point. I speak from a bit of experience as I was in the music business for over a decade and watched profits erode as MP3s and file sharing cut out the need for distributors. That's another subject, but that experience is still pretty fresh.

Upsale Sarasota Mall Delayed

This is not all the surprising to most of us in the business. Most retailers are reeling at the moment and the situation is expected to worsen before it gets better. From the Sarasota Herald Tribune.

Upscale mall will be late

By Toni Whitt
STAFF WRITER

Published: Sunday, December 7, 2008 at 1:00 a.m.
Last Modified: Sunday, December 7, 2008 at 12:11 a.m.

SARASOTA - Construction of the new University Town Center Mall featuring Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and Macy's has been put on hold until the economy turns around.

The move is not surprising given that all of the anchor retailers are suffering from the downturn. Neiman Marcus saw same-store sales drop 14.5 percent in the last quarter. The retailer saw another 11.9 percent decline for the month of November.

Neiman Marcus, which is set to webcast its quarterly report on Wednesday, may have urged the developers to stall the mall project until the economy gets better.

"We're hoping it's a short delay," said Mark Chait, director of Florida leasing for Benderson Development Co., LLC, one of the three partners in the project. He said construction will begin as soon as "economic and retail conditions improve."

It will take two years to build the mall once construction begins, he said.

That means the mall probably will not open before 2012, because most analysts do not believe the economy will turn around before the end of next year.

Nathan Forbes, managing partner of The Forbes Co., would not comment on the retailers on Saturday, but said he plans to issue a formal statement on the construction delay and mall leases later this week.

The other two announced anchors for the mall have also been suffering under the country's economic crisis, with housing prices down, the jobless rate soaring and the credit market contracting. Nordstrom, Inc. saw a 12.1 percent decrease in same store sales in November. Year-to-date same-store sales have decreased 8.6 percent compared with the same period last year.

Macy's, Inc., the third anchor, saw a 13.3 percent decrease in November same-store sales and year-to-date same-store sales were down 4.8 percent. It has also experienced a precipitous drop in its stock price in the past year. It had been selling at around $30 a share a year ago and has since dropped to $8.61 as of last week.

The climate for malls is not good as retailers close stores, face bankruptcy and even shut down.

In a July report, the International Council of Shopping Centers predicted nearly 144,000 stores would close this year.

Mall developments are now facing foreclosure as occupancy rates decline and the delinquency rate on commercial-backed mortgage securities markets rise.

General Growth Properties, Inc., the country's second largest regional mall real estate investment trust, may have to sell the company under the weight of its debt.

"We're probably in the first inning of the commercial mortgage problem," said Scott Tross, a real estate lawyer with Herrick Feinstein in New Jersey.

The timing is terrible for the University Town Center project, which had finally cleared the last of several hurdles last month, when the state gave the developers permission to pull permits and begin building.

In an October conference call with investors, the chief executive of Taubman Centers Inc., whose company holds a 25 percent interest in the project, said that if the partners did not find favorable financing for the project, the development group planned to "self-fund" construction of the 900,000-square-foot luxury mall, which he promised would be complete by November 2010.

But in the ensuing weeks, the economy has declined even further and sales the day after Thanksgiving -- known as Black Friday -- did not bring in the sales retailers had been hoping for.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

LINK

Nearly 10% of all Mortgages Not Being Paid

Yep...

From Bloomberg:

By Kathleen M. Howley

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- One in 10 American homeowners fell behind on mortgage payments or were in foreclosure during the third quarter as the world’s largest economy shed jobs and real estate prices tumbled.

The share of mortgages 30 days or more overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 6.99 percent while loans already in foreclosure rose to 2.97 percent, both all-time highs in a survey that goes back 29 years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a report today. The gain in delinquencies was driven by an increase of loans with payments 90 days or more overdue.

“Until we see a turnaround in the job situation, we’re not going to see these numbers improve,” said Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Washington-based bankers group, in an interview. “We’re seeing more loans build up in the 90-days bucket as lenders work to modify loans and states put in place programs that delay foreclosures.”

The U.S. economy has shed 1.91 million jobs this year, while falling home prices have made it difficult for people who can’t pay their mortgages to sell their property. Payrolls declined in each month of 2008 through November, the Labor Department said today in Washington.

New foreclosures fell to 1.07 percent from 1.08 percent in the second quarter as some states enacted laws to temporarily stop home repossessions and lenders increased efforts to modify the terms of loans, Brinkmann said.

Home Sales Sink

“Some servicers keep a loan in a delinquent state until they see customers carrying through on their agreements, and then they’ll switch it to performing,” Brinkmann said.

U.S. home sales and prices began to tumble in 2006 after a five-year boom, dragging the economy into a recession that began in December 2007, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

The median home price in the fourth quarter probably will be $190,300, down 19 percent from the record $226,800 in 2006’s second quarter, according to a Nov. 24 forecast by Fannie Mae, the world’s largest mortgage buyer.

Purchases of existing homes in October slid to an annual rate of 4.98 million, lower than forecast, the National Association of Realtors said in a Nov. 24 report. The median price fell 11.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since the group began collecting data in 1968.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday urged using more taxpayer funds for new efforts to prevent home foreclosures, saying the private sector is incapable of coping with the crisis on its own.

Bernanke’s Plans

The Fed chief outlined four possible options, including buying delinquent mortgages and providing bigger incentives for refinancing loans. He called for addressing the “apparent market failure” where lenders aren’t modifying mortgages even in cases where it’s in their own economic interest to do so.

Bernanke’s proposed changes would go beyond those announced last month by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston, who oversees the FHA. The agency will change the amount of the loan a lender must forgive and allow banks to extend the payback time of a mortgage.

There were 111.7 million occupied housing units in the U.S. in the third quarter, 68 percent used by owners and the remainder leased by renters, according to the Census Bureau. One in three U.S. homes has no mortgage, the bureau said.

The bankers’ report cites percentages without providing the number of mortgages. The U.S. had $11.3 trillion of outstanding home loans at the end of June, according to Federal Reserve data. Mortgage lending fell to $80.8 billion in the second quarter, down from $764 billion a year earlier, the Fed said.

The Mortgage Bankers report is based on a survey of 45.5 million loans by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts, credit unions and other financial institutions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kathleen M. Howley in Boston at kmhowley@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: December 5, 2008 13:58 EST

What Happens When a 1031 Intermediary Goes Out of Business?

It becomes a HUGE mess. The IRS does NOT care because, once your time is up, you will either have to close or pay cap gains. From CoStar:

Another Blow to Faltering 1031 Real Estate Industry
At Least 450 Real Estate Deals Caught in Limbo Following LandAmerica 1031 Exchange Bankruptcy Filing
Already stung by cases alleging massive embezzlements and a string of failures of 1031 exchange accommodators, now comes another major blow to the business of tax-free real estate exchanges. LandAmerica 1031 Exchange Services Company Inc., one of the stalwarts of the business and one that many investors turned to for stability has run out of money, closed up shop and filed for bankruptcy court protection.

LandAmerica Financial Group Inc., Fortune magazine’s number one Most Admired Company in the mortgage services industry in 2007, shut down operations of its LandAmerica 1031 Exchange Services. In addition, the parent company is being forced to sell its primary title insurance subsidiaries: Commonwealth Land Title Insurance Co.; and Lawyers Title Insurance Corp.

The string of actions was touched off Friday Nov. 21 when Fidelity National Financial Inc., parent company of Chicago Title, cancelled a deal to buy LandAmerica Financial.

The following Monday, LandAmerica 1031 Exchange Services quit accepting new customers and terminated its operations.

That same day, the Nebraska Department of Insurance filed petitions for rehabilitation for Commonwealth and Lawyers Title under the Nebraska Insurance Code. That move likely would have meant turning over controlling of LandAmerica's title companies to Fidelity.

So two days later, LandAmerica Financial came to news terms on the sale of its title companies to Fidelity National, a deal that did not include LandAmerica 1031 Exchange Services. Thus the exchange accommodator and LandAmerica Financial the parent filed for bankruptcy to help facilitate the sale of the title businesses. The filing was made under Chapter 11 of the United States Bankruptcy Code in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Virginia in Richmond, VA.

LandAmerica 1031 Exchange estimated that its assets and liabilities were between $100 million and $500 billion. LandAmerica Financial estimated both at more than $1 billion.

Separate from the title insurance drama, it appeared LandAmerica 1031 Exchange Services was experiencing problems of its own.

In a typical 1031 exchange, an exchanger sells its real estate investment and then has 45 days from the date of sale of the property to identify a like kind replacement property and it has 180 days from the date of the sale to close on the purchase of that replacement property without suffering any tax consequence.

The money from the sale of the first property is held in escrow by an exchange accommodator and released for the purchase of the replacement property. LandAmerica 1031 was one such firm.

While it held those funds, LandAmerica was investing a portion of them in auction rate securities -- in this case in investment grade securities rated A or stronger, including auction rate securities backed by federally guaranteed student loans.

Despite their investment grade ratings, LandAmerica 1031 got caught up in the troubles for such securities when the market for them froze earlier this year.

Its inability to sell or borrow against these securities precipitated its decision to terminate operations, the company said in a letter to customers.

"We understand that this situation is detrimental to you, and we can only assure you that we have taken every reasonable step possible to avoid the problem, including pursuing numerous liquidity options to no avail," LandAmerica's letter to customers said.

Customers are finding out just how detrimental it is after the filing of Chapter 11.

In a real estate alert to its clients, the law firm of DLA Piper in Atlanta, GA, wrote, "For taxpayers who have exchange funds at LandAmerica 1031 Exchange, the automatic stay imposed by the Bankruptcy Court in connection with the Chapter 11 filing will require Court approval of the release of any funds. Accordingly, it is highly unlikely that those funds will be immediately available, and they may not be available in time for the scheduled exchange closings, if any."

"In addition to negatively affecting the contractual obligations of those taxpayers to close on the purchase of identified replacement properties, the unavailability of exchange funds may disqualify the transaction from favorable Section 1031 tax treatment or have other adverse tax consequences," DLA Piper wrote.

According to bankruptcy filings made by LandAmerica 1031, there are approximately 450 taxpayers with pending exchange transactions.

There have been at least two lawsuits filed on behalf of such clients on an emergency basis seeking the release of those funds in time to complete pending transactions.

"I am deeply disappointed over the need to file for bankruptcy protection for the LandAmerica holding company and the 1031 company," said Theodore L. Chandler, Jr., chairman and CEO of LandAmerica Financial. "However, this sale of our principal domestic title operations to Fidelity National in this coordinated Chapter 11 filing and Nebraska rehabilitation action offers our stakeholders the best result available in this brutal real estate, credit and capital market environment."

Can You At Least Get Out of the &$%#&*^ Car?

Yes, yes we know...so many listings, so little time. You're just a super important busy guy and all. I mean, who has time to get out of the fracking car to take a photo of $8-million listings anymore? At least crop out the mirror with some $2 software will ya? LOL.

Get Real or GO HOME

Below is a fantastic Power Point slide show provided by Sequioa Capital. It's tremendously relevant in real estate, especially in this economy. The focus for me personally is getting sellers to understand they need to be realistic when pricing their properties these days. The few buyers who are out there are looking for value, not speculative plays.

Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn

View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: depression recession)

Been busy

Sorry no blog posts for the past few weeks. Been busy, had my dog put to sleep, generally needed to clear my mind a little. It is a different economy since I last posted as well.

On with the show...

The Upward Pressure on Cap Rates

As things slow and credit becomes harder and harder to obtain, there's no doubt that buyers are in the driver's seat and will probably remain there for quite some time. As commercial property continues to experience depreciation, investors are demanding better cap rates. Not rocket science, obviously. I don't see this changing for the foreseeable future. From CRED..read on.

With sales activity throttled, property investors expect capitalization rates for the transactions that do close to significantly increase through early next year.

All property types will experience cap-rate gains over the next six months, exceeding the gains of the past year, according to the investors who participated in the latest PricewaterhouseCoopers Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey. The survey polls REITs, pension funds, mortgage bankers, developers, insurers and other institutional investors.

Regional malls, with a current average cap rate of 6.78%, will see the biggest gain at 47.5 basis points, or 7% of its current base, and suburban office, with a 7.34% average, will see an increase of 44 bp, or 6% of its base. Since last year's third quarter, the suburban office rate increased just 10 bp, while the regional mall rate dropped 8 bp.

The cap rates of all other sectors are expected to increase by 5% each over the next six months.

Office cap rates are expected to increase in all 24 markets covered by the Korpacz study. But in six markets, the expected increase is less that the cap rate gains that occurred over the past year.

The office market with the biggest projected cap-rate gain is Houston, whose 7.27% average is expected to increase 79 bp over the next six months. Its average dropped 45 bp over the past year.

The Manhattan office market's average cap rate, which grew 18 bp to 5.7% over the past year, is expected to increase another 33 bp in the next six months.

While investors surveyed predicted cap-rate gains, they also said their confidence in a near-term recovery of real estate markets is diminishing. The survey's general consensus is that buyers and sellers will remain on the sidelines until credit-markets turmoil subsides.

They also expressed a strong sense that in the coming months, sellers will emerge with properties that are backed by maturing loans and are unable to find new financing. That could be significant since the head of CMBS research at JPMorgan recently noted that the emergence of such forced sellers may be a key factor in helping commercial-property prices fully adjust.

The Korpacz survey respondents also expressed a general sense that the investment slowdown induced by the credit crunch is lasting longer than most expected. "Our six-month recovery projection has been derailed by complete complexity and doubt," said one person surveyed.

The slowing economy and its potential to weaken demand for commercial space is further dragging down investor confidence. "Even all-cash buyers are hesitant about buying because no one is sure about near-term demand," said one respondent.

Copyright © 2008 Commercial Real Estate Direct, a service of FM Financial Publishing LLC. All rights reserved.

Alt-A Loan Resets Continuing Through 2011

Take a look at the chart below. Taken on its face value alone, we are certainly not out of the woods with regard to mortgage resets.

Fitch Ratings on Tuesday released a wide-ranging look at option ARMs that paints a decidedly negative picture for the mortgage markets over the next 36 months. In fact, the picture is a downright scary one: the bottom line is that most outstanding neg-am mortgages won’t get out of 2011 alive, thanks to forced recasts.

Fitch analysts said they now expect roughly $29 billion in option ARMs to recast to higher monthly payments by the end of 2009, and an additional $67 billion to recast in 2010; of this, approximately $53 billion is attributed to early recasts.

“Though recent declines in the 12-month Treasury average rates have mitigated some risks, the majority of option ARM borrowers have elected to make the monthly minimum payment over the past 24 months,” Fitch said in the report. “As a result, a large number of these loans, especially those with 40-year amortization and 110% principal caps are expected to reach their recasts before the end of the five-year mark.”

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Commercial Deals Seizing Up, Values Coming Down

Commercial properties still cashflowing for the most part, but owners and investors are scaling back expectations. This is helping deals collapse and we should expect to see more of the same for the rest of the year. From WSJ.

Commercial-Property Players Find Their Pressures Growing
As Crisis Spreads, Market Seizes Up; Capital Preservation
By ALEX FRANGOS

For the commercial-real-estate players that were in hot water before the capital-markets crisis of the past two weeks, the temperature is rising.

Retail giant Centro Properties Group, New York developer Macklowe Properties, office-building investor Broadway Real Estate Partners LLC and others are now facing an even rougher ride in the wake of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy, the collapse of American International Group Inc. and the buyout of Merrill Lynch & Co. by Bank of America Corp.

After these and other market crises, cash-flow projections for properties are being scaled back in anticipation of a greater economic slowdown. The sales market -- long considered the last hope of many distressed players -- has virtually ground to a halt.

Even creditors that were willing to make real-estate loans before the upheaval are pulling back, having witnessed the spectacle of some of the biggest names in finance and banking vanishing in a period of days.

"In this kind of environment you are not looking to put capital to work," says Lisa Pendergast, managing director of RBS Greenwich Capital. "Most banks and brokerages are in capital-preservation mode."

The demise of Lehman and other events are pushing buyers out of the market or emboldening them to demand lower prices. For example, shopping-center giant Centro Properties Group, which faces a Sept. 30 deadline to pay off $2.3 billion in debt, had a pending deal to sell 29 U.S. properties to DRA Advisors for $714 million. The deal collapsed last week after Centro refused DRA's request for a price cut.

To be sure, commercial real estate so far has fared better than residential properties. Many office buildings, shopping centers, warehouses and other income-producing properties are generating enough cash to pay their debt, and their default rates remain low.

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PricewaterhouseCoopers: Credit Crisis Halts Deals

For every positive article, there's a negative. From MarketWatch.

Commercial break
Credit crunch, economic turmoil halts commercial real estate deals: report

By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Commercial real estate deals are, for the most part, on hold these days as buyers and sellers wait for the credit crunch to ease and the economy to rebound, according to a report released Thursday by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Financing problems are keeping some deals stalled, but other would-be buyers just aren't willing to take a chance on properties as the country deals with increased job losses and problems on Wall Street, according to the firm's quarterly Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey. They're questioning tenant demand in the near term for just about every type of property, from office space to retail, as workers lose their jobs and consumers tighten their purse strings.

"Few investors expect problems in the financial markets to ease any time soon and even fewer expect debt availability and lending practices to return to where they were prior to the credit crunch," said Tim Conlon, partner and U.S. real estate sector leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers, in a news release. "Uncertainty has stalled investments and dramatically reduced sales and leasing activity."

The roller-coaster ride that the markets have been on this week is only making matters worse, said Susan Smith, editor-in-chief of the survey and a director in the PricewaterhouseCoopers real estate sector services group.
"This just adds to more growing concern, more hits on confidence, more uncertainty on how long it's going to take to clean everything up," Smith said in a phone interview. "You're not going to see properties trade until investors are confident that the worst is over."

In the face of uncertainty, those who have commercial property now will likely hold on to what they have and ride out the correction, she said. Some investors are expecting an increase in distressed sales involving assets with nonperforming loans or discouraged owners in the coming months -- something that investors with capital on their hands may view as buying opportunities.

According to the report, the average overall capitalization rate showed a year-over-year uptick in an increasing number of markets. Higher cap rates typically mean lower values. Survey participants said they expected cap rates in each surveyed market to increase in the next six months.

That said, while the short-term out look is bleak, the long-term picture for commercial real estate is much brighter, Smith said.

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Commercial Real Estate Problems are Behind Us, Say Experts

Experts speaking at this year's Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast had some interesting observations, not least of which is that the worst of the commercial real estate turmoil is several years behind us already. Interestingly, some believe the residential condo market will not be fully corrected for another twelve years or so. Yes, twelve years.

On the subject of commercial land, I believe things will pick up as soon as lenders get a little more motivated to provide construction loans for projects. First, however, we need some of the inventory to go away and that seems to be happening...slowly. From the Tampa Bay Business Journal.

By Margaret Cashill

Speakers at the 2009 Commercial Real Estate Market Forecast believe local executives are displaying cautious optimism, but said the greatest difficulties in the commercial real estate market are several years behind us.

The Tampa Bay Business Journal hosted the luncheon Thursday afternoon at the A La Carte Event Pavilion in Tampa, in partnership with the National Association of Industrial and Office Properties.

After an introduction from Bridgette Mill, president and publisher, the event featured five commentaries on the topics of investments, land, retail, industrial and office with Dallas Whitaker of Greystone Equity LLC and TBBJ Staff Writer Janet Leiser serving as moderators.

Steve Ekovich, first VP and regional manager of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Services, spoke of a “recalibration market” following the transition of recent years. He predicted that the inexpensive cost of doing business would benefit local retail, multifamily and office markets.

Bill Eshenbaugh of Eshenbaugh Land Company echoed Ekovich’s sentiment of a recovering market in his discussion of land. Recounting his travels to Pennsylvania, he mentioned a “groundhog” effect in the homeowner’s market following a three-year downturn.

He also predicted that for the condominium market, the cycle would not correct itself until 2020, based on past upturns in 1986 and 1972.

Pat Duffy, president of Colliers Arnold, addressed the subject of retail. Retailers are “cautiously optimistic,” he said. The rising cost of oil has decreased people’s disposable income, which decreases demand for shopping centers.

In speaking about industrial real estate, Ray Sandelli, senior managing director of CB Richard Ellis, said retailers are trying to move closer to populations. For the region, he believes activity will remain slow, flexibility in tenant renewals will increase and distribution centers will gravitate closer to customers.

Larry Richey, senior managing director of Cushman & Wakefield of Florida, Inc., commented on the state of the office market. Since Tampa Bay has lost 16,000 jobs in the last year, the first six months have seen more than 833,000 square feet of negative absorption in the market, he said. The cost to do business in Tampa is reasonable, however, and Richey predicted the cost of living will go down, and leave tenants with more options.

Richey also emphasized that the negative impact of the storm seasons in 2004 and 2005 is fading. The fact that the Bay area has a competitive cost has always helped the region, he said, and is beginning to help again.

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Paul Volcker et al: Resurrect RTC. V 2.0.

Probably one of the more sane things that's been proposed amidst the recent turmoil. Paul Volcker and some pretty heavy hitters chiming in on the idea. From the WSJ. Article continues with link below.

Resurrect the Resolution Trust Corp.
By NICHOLAS F. BRADY, EUGENE A. LUDWIG and PAUL A. VOLCKER

We are in the midst of the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression. Absent bold action, matters could well get worse.

Neither the markets nor the ordinary diet of regulatory orders, bank examinations, rating downgrades and investigations can do the job. Extraordinary emergency actions by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to date, while necessary, are also insufficient to resolve the crisis.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giants in the mortgage market, are overextended and now under new government protection. They are not in sufficiently robust shape to meet all the market's needs.

The fact is that the financial system needs basic, long-term reform, but right now the system is clogged with enormous amounts of toxic real-estate paper that will not repay according to its terms. This paper, in turn, is unable to support huge quantities of structured financial instruments, levered as much as 30 times.

Until there is a new mechanism in place to remove this decaying tissue from the system, the infection will spread, confidence will deteriorate further, and we will have to live through the mother of all credit contractions. This contraction will undercut the financial system, and with it, the broader economy that so far has held up reasonably well.

There is something we can do to resolve the problem. We should move decisively to create a new, temporary resolution mechanism. There are precedents -- such as the Resolution Trust Corporation of the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the Home Owners Loan Corporation of the 1930s. This new governmental body would be able to buy up the troubled paper at fair market values, where possible keeping people in their homes and businesses operating. Like the RTC, this mechanism should have a limited life and be run by nonpartisan professional management.

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100% Financing? In Miami? In This Market?

Apparently the answer is "yes", of course with some exceptions. Read on...

BY DOUGLAS HANKS AND ELAINE WALKER
dhanks@MiamiHerald.com

A day after one of the country's biggest investment banks collapsed, Graham Cos. CEO Stuart Wyllie readied for a conference call with lenders over his request for 100 percent financing of a new 270-unit residential building.

He wasn't worried.

''There's still money to borrow,'' Wyllie said, adding he expects to get three or four offers to loan the full $35 million needed to build the new Lakehouse Apartments complex in Miami Lakes. Banks are ``meeting with us and returning our phone calls.''

Wyllie admits he's far less confident than a year ago. But his prediction of a chummy chat with a lender reflects an overlooked element to the current credit crisis: Deals continue to get done, even in one of the nation's most stigmatized real estate markets.

''Credit's difficult now compared to two years ago -- that goes without saying,'' said David Dabby, a real estate analyst in Coral Gables with a number of banks as clients. ``But if a project has good economic characteristics to it, credit is available.''

GRIM CIRCUMSTANCES

This week's demise of Lehman Brothers shocked Wall Street and reinforced the grim circumstances gripping South Florida's economy. The New York investment bank backed a number of large local projects, and its demise sparked predictions of even more pullback by lenders.

But local developers and bank consultants viewed the Lehman collapse as just another eddy in an already roiled real estate industry, where many players are scrambling to survive but some continue to expand.

The planned Village at Gulfstream Park has turned to the city of Hallandale Beach for help building its $1 billion retail and residential complex. Developer Forest City Enterprises has asked the city for financial incentives to pay for infrastructure or to help subsidize retailers' rent.

''This is a unique time economically,'' said Will Voegele, vice president of development for Forest City.

Scott Sime, head of the Miami-Dade office for commercial brokerage CB Richard Ellis, said he's seeing brisk activity in the ''distressed'' sector -- that is, banks and developers trying to unload failed or struggling projects. Among would-be buyers: large investment funds eager to scoop up large blocks of condominiums for pennies on the dollar.

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Lehman Bankruptcy Puts Pressure On Apartment Investors

Cali, NY and DC investors likely to feel the pinch, pressure to sell and some value deterioration as Archstone assets start getting unloaded. They have a pretty large presence in the South Florida market as well; Lehman backed $226.5 million for construction of Donald Trump’s condo tower in Hollywood, $47 million for the new Canyon Ranch Miami Beach resort, and was part of the private consortium that infused $565 million into the Fontainebleau in Miami Beach. What happens from here is anyone's guess. From WSJ.

After Lehman, Banks Jettison
Commercial-Property Debt
By LINGLING WEI and MICHAEL CORKERY

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is adding pressure on banks and other financial institutions to sell off their holdings of commercial real-estate debt, as they try to stay out ahead of the Wall Street firm's expected liquidation of its $30 billion portfolio.

The likely rush to sell is driving down the already battered market, forcing financial firms to take additional losses mated $150 billion worth of commercial real-estate debt on their books as the once relatively resilient pocket of the property sector now comes under heavy fire.

"As a result of Lehman's bankruptcy, other financial institutions will feel more pressure to sell assets at deeper discounts sought by investors," said Spencer Garfield, a managing director of Hudson Realty Capital, a New York-based real-estate fund manager.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Tuesday said it had reduced its portfolio of commercial mortgages and securities by about $2 billion to $14.7 billion as of the end of its third quarter, which ended Aug. 29, taking a $325 million loss.

"It sure doesn't feel like the real-estate markets are improving anytime soon, and we will reduce that class going forward even if we think they are good assets," said Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar. "Those assets are marked where they can be sold."

Lehman's collapse was the most dramatic sign so far that the financial crisis sparked by residential real estate is spilling over into office buildings, strip malls, hotels and other commercial real estate. The firm was one of the most aggressive lenders on Wall Street, making whole loans, bridge loans and packaging debt into commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS.

About $4.3 billion of Lehman's $30 billion portfolio consists of securities. The prospect of that getting liquidated sparked the latest selloff in the CMBS market, as evidenced by widening spreads between the benchmark U.S. Treasury notes and the CMBX, a credit-market index that tracks the value of the bonds.

Apartment-building investors also are likely to feel significant pressure to sell as Lehman unloads its debt and equity pieces of the $22 billion purchase of Archstone, the large multifamily company with buildings concentrated in Washington, D.C., California and New York City. For months, Archstone had tried to sell assets to reduce debt, but met mixed success. It resisted for months lowering its prices, even as buyers balked. It has sold some complexes but not as many as it hoped, according to a person familiar with Archstone.

Prices are now likely to soften. In markets with apartment buildings that compete with Archstone, "there is no question that if you need to sell assets, you will try to get ahead" of the Lehman selloff, said Jeffrey Spector, a real-estate analyst at UBS. "Every day that goes by there will be more pressure on pricing."

For most of this year, commercial real-estate debt has held up better than housing-related debt. Commercial property values haven't deteriorated as much as homes, thanks to the still-healthy cash flows of most properties, lack of overbuilding and low default rates.

Delinquencies have been mounting in loans tied to construction and land development, a major commercial real-estate category. At the nation's largest construction lender, Bank of America Corp., about half of its $13 billion home-builder portfolio are loans that "we are watching and paying special attention to, because there could be structural deficiency or a market deficiency," said Gene Godbold, president of Bank of America's commercial real-estate banking, in an interview.

Mr. Godbold emphasized that the bank has adequate capital to offset possible losses from its home-builder portfolio.

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Commercial Construction Costs Rise

A press release from New York-based Turner Construction shows a nearly 2 percent increase in the cost of commercial construction from Q2 of this year and over 6 percent since Q3 last year! From the Tampa Bay Business Journal:

Third quarter commercial building costs rose 1.77 percent over the second quarter and nearly 6.5 percent over the third quarter of last year, according to Turner Construction's Building Cost Index.

The index, which projects domestic commercial building construction costs, found that construction costs are rising faster than the Consumer Price Index.

The increase is due in large part to price hikes for steel, non-ferrous metals, petroleum-based products and energy.

Wage and benefit adjustments also are generally higher than a year ago, “reflecting the continuing strong demand on the skilled labor workforce,” said Karl F. Almstead, the Turner vice president responsible for Turner’s Building Cost Index.

However, increasing trade contractor competition in many market areas is offsetting some of the material and labor increases, the report found.

Turner has prepared the construction cost forecast for more than 80 years.

See the article...

Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

Good deal. The Fed stared down the market and the market blinked. My earlier blog post reckoned rates would increase. Glad to see the news today.

Fed Keeps Rate at 2%, Rebuffing Call for Reduction

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve left its main interest rate at 2 percent, rebuffing calls by some investors for an immediate cut after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy shook markets worldwide.

The Fed did signal it will consider a reduction in the future by acknowledging in its statement that strains in financial markets are increasing. The central bank also said that employment is weakening and export growth is slowing, and dropped a reference to elevated inflation expectations.

``Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said after meeting in Washington.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to draw a line between interest rates, which will be set based on its assessment of the broader economy, and emergency operations designed to combat financial turmoil. Less than 48 hours before today's decision, the Fed expanded its lending to securities firms in the wake of Lehman's failure, including accepting equities as collateral for the first time.

Stocks initially fell after today's decision, then rallied after a report that the central bank is considering a loan to American International Group Inc. That would be a shift from yesterday, when officials were inclined against providing funds.

Lehman Failure May Hurt Commercial Real Estate Market

Second bottom coming? Interesting theory. Read the rest at Earth Times (link below).

By Ilaina JonasNEW YORK (Reuters) - A bankruptcy by Lehman Brothers may prompt the sale of its $32.6 billion of commercial real estate investments, and that just may be the jolt the U.S. property market needs to get sales started again, some real estate executives said.But the elusive bottom that buyers and sellers have been waiting for could be short-lived and be followed by an even greater fall in prices until new lenders step in to fill the void left by the retreat of large banks from the market."There's a whole group of people looking to be vultures to pick Lehman's bones," said Jay Rollins, president of Denver-based JCR Capital, a boutique commercial real estate capital provider."The other half of the story is what's left of the financial infrastructure that's going to be in place to do transactions," he said.Lehman Brothers was teetering on the verge of bankruptcy early on Monday after Britain's Barclays Plc withdrew from talks to take over part of Lehman.As of August 31, Lehman held $32.6 billion in commercial real estate loans and equity. Most experts expect that under U.S. bankruptcy procedures, the investments will be sold slowly and not unloaded onto the market in one fell swoop."Once it goes into bankruptcy, there will be a lot of people with their hands all over the place," said Barry Gosin, CEO of real estate services company Newmark Knight Frank."It becomes a much more cumbersome process."But the sale of so many real estate investments may help set values of similar assets and break the standoff between potential buyers and sellers."I think it could very well be the moment when the spreads are wide enough for the money players to come in and say, 'OKnow the returns are good enough for us to go in and invest,"' Gosin said.

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Slow News Day: Palin / Clinton Spoof :)

Tina Fey nails Sarah Palin. Spooky how much she looks and sounds like her. Very funny.

WaMu Going Down Next?

I heard this from a very good banking source a few weeks back. Everyone's been watching the situation unravel over the past week. WaMu claims to be very well-capitalized, but the future is very uncertain for this bank IMO.

Moody's cuts WaMu's credit rating to below investment grade
By Simon Kennedy
Last update: 3:45 a.m. EDT Sept. 12, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investor Service downgraded Washington Mutual Inc.'s credit rating to below investment grade late Thursday, citing WaMu's reduced financial flexibility, deteriorating asset quality and expected franchise erosion. The rating agency cut the group's senior unsecured rating to below investment grade at Ba2 from Baa3. It also reduced the long-term deposit and issuer ratings of the banking unit to Baa3 from Baa2, though this rating remains investment grade. Moody's added the outlook for the ratings is negative. In a response, Washington Mutual said it believes the decision to cut its ratings to below investment grade "is inconsistent with the company's current financial position." The firm added Moody's action appears to reflect the uncertainty in the market, rather than a thorough evaluation of its business.

Investors Confident About Florida's Future

Angel or vulture? You decide. It's certainly not a bad time to have cash, although I'm fairly certain commercial still has some room to drop. It sure ain't over. From MarketWatch.

Kitson & Partners and Their Investors Confident About Florida's Future
Capital partners commit $750 million for residential and retail acquisitions

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., Sept 10, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- A leading institutional investor is demonstrating confidence in the long-term prospects for Florida's real estate market. Chicago-based real estate private equity investor Evergreen Real Estate Partners and its backers have committed $750 million to Palm Beach Gardens-based developer Kitson & Partners to pursue additional residential and commercial real estate development projects in Florida.

Named 2007 Developer of the Year by Real Estate Finance & Investment for its work on the Babcock Ranch project in Southwest Florida, Kitson & Partners has an established track record of conscientious master planning and development throughout the State of Florida. Kitson & Partners has acquired in excess of $900 million of residential and commercial assets within Florida over the past two years. The capital commitment puts Kitson & Partners in a strong position to close additional deals as the opportunities present themselves.

"In a tight credit market, land owners are looking for certainty," Syd Kitson, CEO of Kitson & Partners, explained. "If our company makes an offer, we can close the deal with the seller. We have the financial strength to finish what we start."

Kitson said the firm is targeting high quality locations throughout the State of Florida including raw land, entitled land and improved or semi- improved land for residential development. The company is currently developing 21,270 acres in Florida which will include 25,770 residential units. Kitson & Partners is also actively seeking to grow its retail property portfolio by acquiring stabilized and value-added shopping centers as well as considering joint venture development opportunities. Kitson & Partners currently owns and operates eleven shopping centers around the state.

SOURCE Kitson & Partners

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Economic Malaise Spreading to Leasing Market

Uh oh, looks like malaise is spreading to the lease markets as well. Personally I've had a good leasing year with little in the way of slowdown, but there may be other reasons for that. From my experience, however, I'm seeing landlords push for shorter term leases for a myriad of reasons (mostly an uncertain future), and this is borne out in the following CoStar article.

Facing Slower Lease-ups, Commercial Real Estate Brokers Envision Free Rent and Other Perks From Builders to Lure Office and Industrial Tenants

Call it the "deer in the headlights" effect. Caught in the glare of bad economic news, mixed-signals about the direction of the economy and an imminent change in administrations, many business tenants are opting to stay in a holding pattern and renew leases in their current locations rather than incur the expense and risk of moving. While that’s helping keep rents and occupancies fairly stable in most markets, brokers and analysts warn that developers may take a hit to their bottom lines in the next two years as absorption continues to flatten or decline in many U.S. markets.

At most risk are developers delivering new projects. With tenants now opting to renew their leases rather than expand or move, developers may need to cut rents, beef up concession packages and generally accept lower yields to fill buildings that started construction a year or two ago during better times, several commercial brokers told CoStar Advisor.

"Tenants don’t know what’s going on [in the economy]; they’re saying, ‘we don’t want to bite off a 10-year lease deal, let’s wait until things turn around,'" said John Dettleff, senior vice president with Grubb & Ellis in Vienna, VA. "They’re signing short-term leases because they don’t know if it’s the bottom of the cycle or still going down. And that’s too bad for developers, because [their pro formas] only make sense if they’re doing 7- to 10-year deals."

Developers with new buildings in many markets have already repriced rental rates and offered healthy tenant improvement allowances, free rent, construction management and other inducements to compel reluctant tenants to move, Dettleff said. But many are finding it difficult to overcome the inertia induced by the uncertain business climate.

"It’s very costly for industrial tenants to move equipment. And for a technology company or a mid-size government contractor, a 10-year lease may cramp their ability to sell the company, which eliminates a big exit strategy."

Developers are experiencing longer lease-up times than they expected when they launched projects two years ago, agreed Tom Capocefalo, managing director for tenant representation firm Studley’s South Florida office market. With three buildings totaling about 1.8 million square feet slated for delivery in Miami's CBD in mid-2010, owners and landlords are trying to generate some leasing momentum by providing very attractive leasing terms to initial tenants.

"I would suspect that the overall concessions they’re offering to induce tenants are probably greater than they envisioned in their pro formas," Capocefalo said. "As their leases expire, tenants will at least entertain the idea of a move. But at the end of the day over the next 18 to 24 months, they’ll remain a bit more conservative in their growth expectations; they'll stay put and attempt to secure more favorable renewals by measuring and leveraging against other office developments."

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Losses Spreading To Commercial Loans, Says BoA

Bank of America Says Losses Shift to Commercial Loans (Update1)

By David Mildenberg

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. consumer bank, said credit weakness is spreading to commercial borrowers from residential customers and loan losses probably will deepen in the third quarter.

Home builders unable to repay their loans are contributing to deterioration among commercial borrowers, said Brian Moynihan, head of the global corporate and investment banking unit, at a New York conference today. More than half the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank's $13.4 billion in loans to builders are considered troubled, 19 percent are not paying interest and losses are likely to mount, Moynihan said.

Bank of America's commercial loans were $335 billion as of June 30, and a home-builder portfolio that accounts for less than 4 percent ``won't create major pain for us, but it's going up,'' he said. ``It's not pretty.''

The company is able to charge higher rates on its loans as businesses seek to borrow from companies with strong capital positions, Moynihan said. The investment banking unit will have a ``choppy'' quarter as turmoil in the credit markets delays companies from raising capital or making acquisitions, he said.

Bank of America fell 52 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $32 at 1:22 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, and had declined 21 percent this year through yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Mildenberg in Charlotte at dmildenberg@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 10, 2008 13:23 EDT

Buffett on the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Takeover

Just in case you missed it, here's The Oracle of Omaha on FBN discussing his take on the bailout. Parts 1 and 2.

Mall Glut to Clog Market for Years

Looks like the glut of mall space will be cause for landlord headaches for a while. This will probably play into the whole TIC scenario in the near future as quite a few TICs are heavily invested into these kinds of properties. From the Wall Street Journal.

Mall Glut to Clog Market for Years
Scarce Shoppers,
Lack of Tenants
Ding Developers
By KRIS HUDSON and ANN ZIMMERMAN

Shopping-mall owners have struggled this year with a darkening economy, slowing consumer spending and store closings by retailers. But they face another problem that may persist long after the economy bounces back: a decade of overbuilding.

Developers have built one billion square feet of retail space in the 54 largest U.S. markets since the start of 2000, 25% more than what they built during the same period of the 1990s, according to Property & Portfolio Research Inc. of Boston. U.S. retail space now amounts to 38 square feet for every person in those 54 markets, up from 29 square feet in 1983, the firm says.

Consider a six-mile stretch of highway north of Dallas, where three developers are racing to finish four huge shopping centers with a combined three million square feet of space. Not only will they compete with each other, but there are three existing malls within a 10-mile radius.

"There just aren't enough tenants to go around for three projects," concedes Gar Herring, president of shopping center developer MGHerring Group of Dallas, which is building the largest of the centers.

Similar scenes are playing out across the country. DeBartolo Development indefinitely postponed construction of 700,000 square feet of retail space in Mesa, Ariz., due to weak demand. Green Street Advisors, a real-estate research firm, says 13 strip shopping centers under development have been canceled this year and 90 others have been delayed by the seven shopping-center developers it monitors.
[Mall Glut]

Of course, retail landlords struggle and store vacancies rise in every economic downturn. But this time, experts say, the overbuilding means that high occupancy rates at malls and strip centers may not return for years.

For retailers, the glut can have an upside: cheaper rents, shorter lease terms and fatter allowances from landlords for outfitting stores. This year, the rents in new lease signings are 10.4% lower on average than the asking price, down from the 9.3% discount of two years ago, says market researcher Reis Inc. of New York.

Shopping-center owners with a hefty focus on development, including Regency Centers Corp. of Jacksonville, Fla., and Weingarten Realty Investors of Houston, are compensating for the construction slowdown by trying to raise rents and sell older centers. Others, such as Kimco Realty Corp. of New Hyde Park, N.Y., have shifted much of their development abroad. Brian Smith, Regency's chief investment officer, said the real-estate investment trust has canceled some development projects, continued more cautiously with others and turned partly to upgrading existing centers. Regency's second-quarter profit was off 25%.

David Simon, chairman and chief executive of Simon Property Group Inc., the largest U.S. mall owner with 323 malls, sees "a decade of little new development" and a shakeout. "There were a lot of projects that shouldn't have been built" in recent years, he said.

Some big retailers are curtailing expansion and closing stores. For the first time since the 1990-91 recession, occupied retail space in major U.S. markets is expected to decline this year, falling by 1.2 million square feet, projects Property & Portfolio Research. Last year, occupied space grew nearly 61 million square feet, the firm says. Retailers that helped drive the building boom -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Starbucks Corp. among them -- have nearly saturated the U.S. Earlier this year, Home Depot said it would close 15 unprofitable stores and cancel 50 proposed ones, throttling back its store-growth ambitions to a meager 1.5% a year.

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Flippers Trying to Cancel Condo Contracts Get Smackdown

Although a personal opinion, but those who - out of sheer greed - agreed to purchase these units should be forced to close on them. I can't say I have any sympathy for these folks. As if the pool actually being "Olympic-sized" is going to help your flip sell any faster in this market. Not. Much ado about nothing. If I buy a stock and it goes down, that's life. How folks think they should be insulated from the ups and downs of the economy is really amazing. Good to see the courts tossing out many of these cases. You make your bed....

From the Wall Street Journal

Condo Buyers In Florida Seek To Exit Deals But Courts' Rulings Suggest Many Investors May Be Stuck; Defining 'Olympic Style' Pools
By MARKUS BALSER

With Florida awash in tens of thousands of empty or unfinished condominiums, many investors there are turning to the courts in an effort to cancel their contracts and recoup their deposits.

So far, they haven't had much luck.

Condo buyers in hard-hit markets across the country have been scouring their contracts for loopholes and flaws that would allow them to back out. Investors in Florida, where many were looking to flip their condos for a quick profit in a rising market, have been particularly aggressive in using the courts. And that's no surprise, given that the condo market there is one of the worst in the country, with average condo prices down 22% since the market peaked in 2005, according to the Florida Association of Realtors -- and they're still falling.

Yet a series of recent legal decisions in the Florida courts indicate that it won't be as easy as buyers might hope to get out of these deals. The bottom line: Unless it's a bona fide contract dispute, an investor's chances of winning appear to be slim.

Last month, the U.S. District Court in Miami dismissed two dozen federal lawsuits in which buyers said they were misled by an advertising brochure promising an "Olympic style" swimming pool at Opera Tower, a high-rise condo building near downtown Miami.

Plaintiffs could not reasonably rely on the drawings or advertisements, Judge Patricia Seitz ruled. The contract clearly stated the pool was L-shaped and 2,530 square feet -- smaller than Olympic size, she wrote. The developers claimed that "Olympic style" didn't refer to the pool's size but to the fact that it would have lanes.

The decision was a big loss for consumer rights, says Miami Beach attorney Kent Harrison Robbins, who filed the lawsuits against Opera Tower. "It gives developers wide-ranging room to promise whatever they want, as long as they change it in the written contract," he says. "Honest developers will be outcompeted by dishonest ones." Mr. Robbins says he plans to appeal the decision to the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Atlanta.

Real-estate lawyers nationally are closely monitoring the Florida lawsuits, expecting a wave of similar claims across the country as more condominium projects are completed. "The market in Florida is two years ahead of other parts of the U.S., like California or the Sunbelt states, in both the heavy downturn in prices and the lawsuits following it," says attorney Robert M. Chasnow, a partner with Holland & Knight in Washington.

During the housing boom, Florida -- like some other areas noted for tourism and retirement living -- attracted hordes of speculators. By some estimates, more than half of all the deposits for Miami condos were put down by people planning to flip them for a profit without living in them, says Jack McCabe, chief executive officer of McCabe Research & Consulting in Deerfield Beach, Fla.

A Four-Year Inventory

But developers built far more condos than demand could absorb. The glutted Miami market now has close to 50,000 units -- a record four years' worth of inventory -- for sale or under construction. The national condo market, by contrast, has a 12-month inventory, up from 4.7 months in 2005, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Faced with such sobering prospects, many buyers no longer want to close on their properties, as they risk steep losses when they try to sell. In some buildings, as many of 30% of condo buyers are turning to the courts in an effort to cancel their contracts. If unsuccessful, they have to either go ahead and close on a unit they no longer want or walk away and lose their deposits, which are typically between 10% and 20% of the purchase price.

In one closely watched case, Florida's Fourth District Court of Appeal sided in June with the developers over buyers who were seeking to recover a deposit in the Marina Grande, a two-tower, 26-floor complex that overlooks the Atlantic Ocean in Palm Beach County. The plaintiffs -- two individual investors who operated under the name D&T Properties -- cited a clause in state law that allows buyers to cancel over material changes in the project.

But the court affirmed that the plaintiffs, who paid a $99,000 deposit for a $495,000 condo, could not cancel their contract because of rising insurance and utility costs or for minimal increases in other costs. The court said an 18% increase in costs controlled by a developer is not "material," but did not set a standard as to what level of increase would meet that bar. Gary J. Nagel, the attorney for D&T Properties, called the decision "incorrect" and said the court failed to define what a "material" change would be.

In June, a Miami-Dade Circuit Court jury ruled against an investor named Alexandra Hiaeve, who claimed that she never received the condo documents from the owner she was buying a unit from at WCI Communities' One Bal Harbour.

The jury said Ms. Hiaeve couldn't prove that she never received the documents. The judge also ruled during the trial that Ms. Hiaeve had failed to establish that she had requested the condo documents in writing. Thus, the owner, Gedalia Fenster, was allowed to keep the $300,000 deposit.

A 'Ridiculous' Decision

Robert Zarco, the attorney representing Mr. Fenster, says that denying receipt of the documents is "very common in markets where people had been flipping and then the market turns and they want an excuse not to close." Ms. Hiaeve declined to comment, but her business partner, Yona Kogman, says the jury's decision was "ridiculous" and that Ms. Hiaeve hopes to appeal.

Developers are hailing these decisions. Tibor Hollo, chairman and president of Florida East Coast Realty, which is building Opera Tower, says the rulings indicate that people can't get out of their contracts for insignificant reasons. "Some just don't want to close in a bad market," he says.

But attorneys who represent condo buyers say many of the complaints of contract violations are legitimate -- and that the battle is not over yet. "We are going to see a number of cases where buyers are successful, primarily in areas where something substantial was altered in the project and those that were not delivered on time," says Jared H. Beck of Beck & Lee, a law firm in Miami. "The decisions represent just a tiny sliver of the universe of grounds for buyers' claims in the ongoing litigation war between buyers and developers."

Demanding a Refund

Dora and Umberto Arena, of Hollywood, Fla., are among the thousands of investors who are looking to the courts for relief. When the Arenas bought their deluxe $595,000 condo in Hallandale Beach, developers urged them to move quickly to put down their $120,000 deposit. The planned 283 units at the Ocean Marine Yacht Club in Hallandale Beach sold out in only three weeks when they were offered to the public three years ago.

"We saw this beautiful 48-slip marina in their brochures, and it sounded wonderful to have a place for a boat and to live in that brand new building," says Ms. Arena, 64.

Despite the name, the Ocean Marine Yacht Club has no marina, as the developer was unable to secure the necessary permits. "We were inundated with literature touting it as a marquee feature of the complex while the developer was failing to disclose it didn't have the necessary permits or approvals," Ms. Arena says.

The Arenas are suing the developer, Chicago-based Fifield Realty Corp, demanding refund of their deposit. Representatives of Fifield declined to comment directly on the pending litigation. In a written statement, the company said the litigation "may be based on people trying to get out of their contracts because of current market conditions, including changes in credit and mortgage terms."

Ironically, the growing number of lawsuits may actually make the problem worse. A high rate of units contested in court makes buyers nervous about closing and moving into a half-empty complex, which further depresses the market, says Mr. McCabe, of McCabe Research & Consulting. That, in turn, will give buyers more incentive to sue. "Just wait. We haven't started to see what we are going to see," Mr. McCabe says.

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