2009 Retail Sales Down 6.2%, Highest Since 1992

Considering this news, I would expect to see more store closings, more layoffs and more vacant retail space in the coming months. 2008 wasn't nearly as bad and we saw quite a few retailers go under in 2009, namely Waldenbooks, Circuit City and Boater's World.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Retail sales fell in December as demand for autos, clothing and appliances all slipped, a disappointing finish to a year in which sales had the largest drop on record.

The weakness in consumer demand highlighted the formidable hurdles facing the economy as it struggles to recover from the deepest recession in seven decades.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales declined 0.3 percent in December compared with November, much weaker than the 0.5 percent rise that economists had been expecting. Excluding autos, sales dropped by 0.2 percent, also weaker than the 0.3 percent rise analyst had forecast.

For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent, the biggest decline on records that go back to 1992. The only other year that annual sales fell was in 2008, when they slipped by 0.5 percent.

The 0.3 percent decline in December was the first setback since September, when sales had fallen 2 percent. Sales posted strong gains of 1.2 percent in October and 1.8 percent in November, raising hopes that the consumer is starting to mount a comeback.

Consumer spending is considered critical to any sustained economic revival since consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.

The December drop in sales was a surprise given that the nation's big retailers had reported better-than-expected results last week, reflecting a surge of last-minute holiday shopping. But even with the rebound reported by the nation's biggest chains, these retailers suffered their worst annual performance in more than four decades in 2008, according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers.

The 6.2 percent fall in the government's retail sales figure is only the second decline on records that go back to 1992. In all other years, even during previous recessions, retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation, have managed to increase.

For December, sales of autos dropped by 0.8 percent following a 1.2 percent rise in November.

Sales at specialty clothing stores fell by 0.6 percent while sales at general merchandise stores, a category that includes big retailers such as Wal-Mart, were down by 0.8 percent while sales at department stores were flat.

Sales at electronics and appliance stores dropped by 2.6 percent and sales at hardware stores dropped by 0.4 percent.

The weakness over the year reflected the battering that consumers have taken from the worst recession since the Great Depression, a downturn that has cost 7.2 million jobs and left households trying to rebuild savings depleted by losses on Wall Street and a crash in housing prices.

Economists are worried about consumer spending in the months ahead given their forecasts that unemployment, currently at 10 percent, will keep rising until perhaps midyear.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the July-September quarter and many economists believe that growth strengthened even further in the final three months of last year. However, the worry is that GDP will slow significantly in the early part of 2010 unless consumers continue to spend.

For December, a diverse group of retailers including Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp., Macy's Inc. and TJX all reported increases. Luxury stores like Saks Inc. and Nordstrom also saw strong December sales gains and even Sears Holdings posted a small gain on rising sales at its Kmart chain.

Also helping to support retail spending in December was a hint of better days ahead for the battered auto industry. Automakers in the United States ended their worst year in almost three decades in December with slight improvements, led by gains in sales of small cars.

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Wave of Retail Bankruptcies and Closings On The way

From Bloomberg. 73,000 stores may close after the new year and before June of 2009 according to ICSC. Expect a lot more vacancy. Read on.

Holiday Sales Drop to Force Bankruptcies, Closings

By Heather Burke

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. retailers face a wave of store closings, bankruptcies and takeovers starting next month as holiday sales are shaping up to be the worst in 40 years.

Retailers may close 73,000 stores in the first half of 2009, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers. Talbots Inc. and Sears Holdings Corp. are among chains shuttering underperforming locations.

More than a dozen retailers, including Circuit City Stores Inc., Linens ‘n Things Inc., Sharper Image Corp. and Steve & Barry’s LLC, have sought bankruptcy protection this year as the credit squeeze and recession drained sales. Investors will start seeing a wide variety of chains seeking bankruptcy protection in February when they file financial reports, said Burt Flickinger.

“You’ll see department stores, specialty stores, discount stores, grocery stores, drugstores, major chains either multi- regionally or nationally go out,” Flickinger, managing director of Strategic Resource Group, a retail-industry consulting firm in New York, said today in a Bloomberg Radio interview. “There are a number that are real causes for concern.”

Sales at stores open at least a year probably dropped as much as 2 percent in November and December, the ICSC said last week, more than the previously projected 1 percent decline. That would be the largest drop since at least 1969, when the New York-based trade group started tracking data. Gap Inc. and Macy’s Inc. are among retailers that will report December results on Jan. 8.

Women’s Clothing, Electronics

Consumers spent at least 20 percent less on women’s clothing, electronics and jewelry during November and December, according to data from SpendingPulse.

Retail Metrics Inc.’s December comparable-store sales index will drop an estimated 1.2 percent, or 5 percent excluding Wal- Mart Stores Inc. Retailers’ fourth-quarter earnings may fall 19 percent on average, the seventh consecutive quarterly decline, according to Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics, a Swampscott, Massachusetts-based consulting firm.

Probably 50,000 stores could close without any effect on consumer choice, Gregory Segall, a managing partner at buyout firm Versa Capital Management Inc., said this month during a panel discussion held at Bloomberg LP’s New York offices. Only retailers with healthy balance sheets will survive the recession, according to Matthew Katz, a managing director at consulting firm AlixPartners LLP.

Store Closings

The ICSC predicts, using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data, that 148,000 stores will shut down in 2008. That would be the largest number since 151,000 closings in 2001, during the last recession, according to ICSC Chief Economist Michael Niemira. The total number of retail establishments will decline by about 3 percent this year, also taking into account locations that were opened, he said. The U.S. had 1.11 million retail locations in 2002.

Another 73,000 locations may shut their doors in the first part of 2009, Niemira said.

The U.S. economy shrank in the third quarter at a 0.5 percent annual pace, the worst since 2001, according to the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of December forecast the world’s largest economy will contract through the first half of 2009.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Retailing Index has shed 34 percent this year, with only two of its 27 companies rising.

The index doesn’t include Wal-Mart, the world’s largest retailer, which fell 24 cents to $55.11 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Wal-Mart shares have gained 18 percent this year.

Discount Advantage

“If you’re going to be in retail right now, the discount space is where you want to be,” Patrick McKeever, a senior equity analyst at MKM Partners LLC, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Discounts of 70 percent or more by Macy’s, AnnTaylor Stores Inc. and other retailers failed to prevent a spending drop of as much as 4 percent during the final two months of the year, according to data from SpendingPulse. Retailers’ pricing models are being challenged by consumers, according to Richard Hastings, consumer strategist at Global Hunter Securities LLC of Newport Beach, California.

“The whole pricing system is becoming an old-fashioned bazaar,” Hastings said today in a telephone interview. “They’re going into the stores and they’re looking at the stuff and they’re saying ‘You know what? I know that that price is way too high,’ and they have figured out that the signage doesn’t mean that much.”

Retail bankruptcies may help the industry in the long run, according to Flickinger.

“We’ll be going from a Dickens-esque worst of times this December to the best of times in future Decembers because we’ll rationalize out all the redundant retailers and retail space in shopping centers,” Flickinger said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Heather Burke in New York at hburke2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 29, 2008 16:17 EST

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ICSC Panel = Be Nice To Your Tenants + Some POSITIVE News

Some positive news at ICSC this past week. A report released by the group states that Florida's retail occupancy is much healthier than much of the nation and that the state is poised for very aggressive, positive growth once the broader economy gets healthier. Good to know, but the ICSC panel noted foreclosures will be spiking as loans reset.

Stanley Tate, president of North Miami, Fla.–based Tate Enterprises and an advisor to the Federal Reserve, cautioned landlords to play nice" with their current tenants. "An occupied store is better than an unoccupied one," he said. "Even if it is at half the rent."

Owners of distressed retail properties will need to do some fancy footwork to stay afloat in the coming year as many of their loans come due, speakers said at ICSC's Florida Conference in Orlando, Fla., today. Without enough cash flow to maintain mortgage payments, these owners will need to try and re-negotiate loan terms with lenders and rethink CAM and other operating costs to help troubled tenants keep up with their rent payments.

More than $1 trillion worth of U.S. commercial properties will undergo foreclosure in the coming year as owners default on their loans, predicted Stanley Tate, president of North Miami, Fla.–based Tate Enterprises and an advisor to the Federal Reserve. "It's just beginning to start. Those who are heavily leveraged are going to have a very difficult time," Tate said. He pointed out that the FDIC has hired 500 new regulators to help shut down 85 banks within the next 30 days. As more and more subprime borrowers default on loans, "there are very serious problems in the banking industry," he said.

Not all of that foreclosed commercial property will be retail, but Tate expects a significant portion to be small open-air centers tenanted by mom-and-pop shops. Such tenants have been hit hard by inflation and are having trouble keeping up with rent payments, he said. And landlords can no longer count on securing new debt to stay afloat. "In the past few years, every deal was bailed out by more easy money," said John Kozyak, a commercial bankruptcy lawyer with the Coral Gables, Fla.–based firm of Kozyak, Tropin, Throckmorton. "Now, with a lot of loans coming due next year, the easy money has run out."

Troubled owners should not put off trying to renegotiate loans until the last minute, Kozyak said. "The main thing is to get to your lender early and with accurate information," he said. "Lenders are demanding more information in the current economy and they're not tolerating the sneaking around that's been going on in the past 18 months."

To avoid write-offs, lenders are willing to be flexible and work with distressed borrowers, particularly insurance companies and publicly traded lenders who might be more willing to play ball as their quarter is drawing to its close, said Raul Valdez-Fauli, president and CEO of Coral Gables, Fla.–based CNL Bank. "Banks are dusting off forebearance agreements, which include the extension of amortization periods and even reduction of mortgage payments for several months if a borrower can prove that an impending increase in cash flow is on the horizon,"
Valdez-Fauli said.

Landlords should do their part to help troubled tenants make rent and keep cash flow up, said Craig Sher, executive chairman of St. Petersburg, Fla.–based The Sembler Co. "Developers will have to reduce CAM expenses penny by penny, and try to save money on insurance. We've attacked every appraiser," he said. "Save tenants money on the expense side so they can afford to pay rent."

Tate recommended that landlords approach troubled mom-and-pop tenants now to renegotiate rents and lease terms. "An occupied store is better than an unoccupied one," he said. "Even if it is at half the rent."

Copyright 2008, International Council of Shopping Centers