LEASED ANOTHER ONE! 999 Cattlemen Road.

This one was a double header: I sold this unit at 999 Cattlemen Road (Unit A) week prior to an investor and put a new tenant in the space on Friday for three years. Congratulations to Dance Artistry, Inc. on their new 2,280SF home. They look to be open on approximately July 1, so feel free to pay them a visit. The location is perfect for them - lots of glass and an endcap unit. Thank you!

Look For Interest Rate Increases

Direct link at end of article.

Consumers in U.S. Face the End of an Era of Cheap Credit
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

Even as prospects for the American economy brighten, consumers are about to face a new financial burden: a sustained period of rising interest rates.

That, economists say, is the inevitable outcome of the nation’s ballooning debt and the renewed prospect of inflation as the economy recovers from the depths of the recent recession.

The shift is sure to come as a shock to consumers whose spending habits were shaped by a historic 30-year decline in the cost of borrowing.

“Americans have assumed the roller coaster goes one way,” said Bill Gross, whose investment firm, Pimco, has taken part in a broad sell-off of government debt, which has pushed up interest rates. “It’s been a great thrill as rates descended, but now we face an extended climb.”

The impact of higher rates is likely to be felt first in the housing market, which has only recently begun to rebound from a deep slump. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has risen half a point since December, hitting 5.31 last week, the highest level since last summer.

Along with the sell-off in bonds, the Federal Reserve has halted its emergency $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage debt, placing even more upward pressure on rates.

“Mortgage rates are unlikely to go lower than they are now, and if they go higher, we’re likely to see a reversal of the gains in the housing market,” said Christopher J. Mayer, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School. “It’s a really big risk.”

Each increase of 1 percentage point in rates adds as much as 19 percent to the total cost of a home, according to Mr. Mayer.

The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the rise to continue, with the 30-year mortgage rate going to 5.5 percent by late summer and as high as 6 percent by the end of the year.

Another area in which higher rates are likely to affect consumers is credit card use. And last week, the Federal Reserve reported that the average interest rate on credit cards reached 14.26 percent in February, the highest since 2001. That is up from 12.03 percent when rates bottomed in the fourth quarter of 2008 — a jump that amounts to about $200 a year in additional interest payments for the typical American household.

With losses from credit card defaults rising and with capital to back credit cards harder to come by, issuers are likely to increase rates to 16 or 17 percent by the fall, according to Dennis Moroney, a research director at the TowerGroup, a financial research company.

“The banks don’t have a lot of pricing options,” Mr. Moroney said. “They’re targeting people who carry a balance from month to month.”

Similarly, many car loans have already become significantly more expensive, with rates at auto finance companies rising to 4.72 percent in February from 3.26 percent in December, according to the Federal Reserve.

Washington, too, is expecting to have to pay more to borrow the money it needs for programs. The Office of Management and Budget expects the rate on the benchmark 10-year United States Treasury note to remain close to 3.9 percent for the rest of the year, but then rise to 4.5 percent in 2011 and 5 percent in 2012.

The run-up in rates is quickening as investors steer more of their money away from bonds and as Washington unplugs the economic life support programs that kept rates low through the financial crisis. Mortgage rates and car loans are linked to the yield on long-term bonds.

Besides the inflation fears set off by the strengthening economy, Mr. Gross said he was also wary of Treasury bonds because he feared the burgeoning supply of new debt issued to finance the government’s huge budget deficits would overwhelm demand, driving interest rates higher.

Nine months ago, United States government debt accounted for half of the assets in Mr. Gross’s flagship fund, Pimco Total Return. That has shrunk to 30 percent now — the lowest ever in the fund’s 23-year history — as Mr. Gross has sold American bonds in favor of debt from Europe, particularly Germany, as well as from developing countries like Brazil.

Last week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly crossed the psychologically important threshold of 4 percent, as the Treasury auctioned off $82 billion in new debt. That is nearly twice as much as the government paid in the fall of 2008, when investors sought out ultrasafe assets like Treasury securities after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the beginning of the credit crisis.

Though still very low by historical standards, the rise of bond yields since then is reversing a decline that began in 1981, when 10-year note yields reached nearly 16 percent.

From that peak, steadily dropping interest rates have fed a three-decade lending boom, during which American consumers borrowed more and more but managed to hold down the portion of their income devoted to paying off loans.

Indeed, total household debt is now nine times what it was in 1981 — rising twice as fast as disposable income over the same period — yet the portion of disposable income that goes toward covering that debt has budged only slightly, increasing to 12.6 percent from 10.7 percent.

Household debt has been dropping for the last two years as recession-battered consumers cut back on borrowing, but at $13.5 trillion, it still exceeds disposable income by $2.5 trillion.

The long decline in rates also helped prop up the stock market; lower rates for investments like bonds make stocks more attractive.

That tailwind, which prevented even worse economic pain during the recession, has ceased, according to interviews with economists, analysts and money managers.

“We’ve had almost a 30-year rally,” said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s. “That’s come to an end.”

Just as significant as the bottom-line impact will be the psychological fallout from not being able to buy more while paying less — an unusual state of affairs that made consumer spending the most important measure of economic health.

“We’ve gotten spoiled by the idea that interest rates will stay in the low single-digits forever,” said Jim Caron, an interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley. “We’ve also had a generation of consumers and investors get used to low rates.”

For young home buyers today considering 30-year mortgages with a rate of just over 5 percent, it might be hard to conceive of a time like October 1981, when mortgage rates peaked at 18.2 percent. That meant monthly payments of $1,523 then compared with $556 now for a $100,000 loan.

No one expects rates to return to anything resembling 1981 levels. Still, for much of Wall Street, the question is not whether rates will go up, but rather by how much.

Some firms, like Morgan Stanley, are predicting that rates could rise by a percentage point and a half by the end of the year. Others, like JPMorgan Chase are forecasting a more modest half-point jump.

But the consensus is clear, according to Terrence M. Belton, global head of fixed-income strategy for J. P. Morgan Securities. “Everyone knows that rates will eventually go higher,” he said. LINK

Volume of CMBS Delinquent Loans Climbs

We're not anywhere near out of the woods yet but it seems all these assets we anticipated to come to market are finally doing so (or are at least well on their way). There is a lot of money sloshing around out there, and buyers eager for aggressively priced (read: discounted) prime bank assets. Once we can get these assets on the market and into the hands of people who will capitalize upon them, I think we'll all be better off. For me this is some of the best opportunity I've seen since I started selling commercial real estate. Bring it on!

Volume of CMBS Delinquent Loans Climbs to $47.8B in February
Mar 29, 2010 - CRE News

Another $1.9 billion of CMBS loans became delinquent in February, bringing the total volume of delinquent loans to $47.8 billion, or 6% of the total universe tracked by Realpoint.

That compares with a rate of 5.76% a month earlier. If you exclude agency loans and those that are less than a year old, the delinquency rate in February was 6.32%.

Delinquencies will continue to increase. That's indicated by the $76.13 billion of loans that are in the hands of special servicers. While not all of those are delinquent, they're all at high risk of becoming late. Realpoint classifies loans as being delinquent when they're more than 30-days late.

To that end, Realpoint has updated its projection for delinquencies and now expects them to hit as high as 12% of the CMBS universe by the end of the year under a heavily stressed scenario. It expects delinquencies to be between 8% and 9% by mid-year. The $3 billion of financing on Manhattan's Stuyvesant Town/Peter Cooper Village apartment complex was not deemed delinquent as of the end of February, but did not make its March payment. So next month's delinquent-loan tally will be bolstered by at least $3 billion.

In a change from recent months, the Horsham, PA, rating agency saw a decline in the volume of loans classified as 30-days late. In February, $6.8 billion of loans were in that bucket, down from $7.7 billion a month earlier. The 60-day bucket also saw a decline, although not as pronounced, to $4.7 billion from $4.8 billion.

All other delinquency categories saw an increase in volume, with the 90-day bucket growing the most, to $25.9 billion from $23.8 billion. Many loans sit in that category for substantial periods of time as their workout or foreclosure strategies are ironed out. An example is the $4.1 billion of debt on the Extended Stay Hotels chain. It became delinquent last November, so its more than 90-days late. And it will stay that way as the hotel company gets recapitalized.

The delinquency rate for securitized hotel loans was 10.2% last month, up from 9.5% in January. Apartment loans have a 7.04% delinquency rate, up from 7%, and retail loans a 5.4% rate, unchanged from a month ago. The office delinquency rate, which has remained lower than that for the other major sectors, punched through the 4% market in February, to 4.2%, from 3.7% in January.

A total of $461.8 million of loans were liquidated during February, marking the third straight month during which more than $300 million were eliminated. Of the total, $222.2 million were resolved with little loss. Most of those were refinanced after their maturity date.

The best example of that was the $165 million of debt on 63 Madison Ave., a 797,377-square-foot office building in the midtown south area of Manhattan. The loan had matured in January.

A $105 million piece of the debt was securitized through COMM, 2005-LNP5, and the remainder through GE Commercial Mortgage Corp., 2005-C1. The loan was refinanced after its maturity date with a $150 million mortgage from Bank of China. The remaining $15 million was raised by the building's owner, George Comfort & Sons, by tapping a $15 million letter of credit that a tenant at the building used to guarantee its lease.

That resolution resulted in a loss of 1% to the deals that owned the matured debt.

Meanwhile, 44 loans with a balance of $239.6 million were resolved with losses that averaged 64.7% of their balance.

The largest of those had a $42.5 million balance and was backed by 1650 Arch St., a 553,349-sf office building in downtown Philadelphia that is owned by Behringer Harvard. The Dallas investment manager bought the loan, which was securitized through Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp., 2002-CKS4, at a discount to its face value. The loan's resolution resulted in a loss of $9.5 million to the CKS4 deal.

SOLD ANOTHER ONE! FORECLOSURE AT 999 CATTLEMEN RD

This bank owned asset took less than 3 weeks to sell from the time it hit the market. Deal was all cash and sold for $73.10 per square foot. Congratulations to the new buyer.

Good marketing = results!

SOLD ANOTHER ONE! Foreclosure Goes for $51ft

I sold this 3,180SF industrial condo at 752 Commerce Drive in Venice on 2/26/10. The buyer was all cash and it closed in less than two weeks. Value was approximately $51 per rentable square foot. It took me nearly 9 months to move it, too.

Latest Office Vacancy Report, Sarasota County

The numbers are in for December. Downtown vacancy edged up, University Parkway vacancy is down and the rest appear stagnant. Overall vacancy is 19.15%.

Herewith the numbers:

Downtown Sarasota: 13.74% +
University Parkway Area: 18.22% -
I-75 Fruitville South to Clark: 21.27% (N/C)
Venice: 22.03% (N/C)
North Port: 37.28% (N/C)
Suburban & South Trail: 27.84% (N/C)

Source: Sarasota EDC

In 2010, Will Investors Who Hesitate Be Lost?

Good question.

None of us has a crystal ball, so it's tough to really determine if this is the case. Judging by my own experience, there are some fairly nice deals out there if you have access to money and are willing to keep the property until things recover. The problem with all of this is, without a good ability to predict what's going to happen, are these deals looking good because we're looking through the glass at prices now vs. 2006, or prices now vs. 2001? As I've stated before, I don't think certain assets can get any cheaper (while some certainly can). Seems as if my phone rings more with potential buyers as of late than potential tenants - something I haven't experienced since 2007. The banks I deal with on REO properties are behaving a little more proactively now than at this same time last year. One thing's for sure: we will not know when the bottom is here. THIS GUY (link) seems to think those who "overwait" the market for markedly lower prices than we have now will be sorely disappointed and miss the boat. I tend to agree.

From National Real Estate Investor (link at bottom of article).

In 2010, Will Investors Who Hesitate Be Lost?

Nov 1, 2009 12:00 PM, Sibley Fleming

While German and Chinese investors are already buying assets at discounted prices, many domestic investors are hoping to time the market to pick up even better deals.

With some $1.5 trillion in commercial mortgage debt expected to mature over the next three years and only $300 billion in equity sitting on the sidelines, more distress is imminent, according to Jeffrey Rogers, president and chief operating officer of New York-based valuation and consulting firm Integra Realty Resources.

Integra's clients include pension funds such as the California Public Employees' Retirement System, and investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

“Whenever you're in that type of environment, where you don't have the liquidity to take out the mortgage debt, prices come down,” he explains.

The imbalance should result in a further decline in commercial real estate valuations. Over the next six months, Rogers predicts that property values will decline another 4% to 9%, on top of the 39% drop that's already occured since the peak in December 2007.

Currently, 48% of Integra's valuation assignments involve distressed assets, defined as real estate owned (REO), short sales, assets refinanced with an equity infusion, failed bank assets, assets resulting from bankruptcy, and assets with significant deterioration in operating income.
Real-life scenario

What will bring more distress to market? Rogers offers up this example: An investor acquired an office building in New York at the peak of pricing two years ago and didn't sign a personal guarantee. The property is underwater and its loan matures at the end of the year, but the bank is willing to extend.

Here's the sticking point: Although the property is 95% leased, a single tenant occupying 15% of the space is coming up for renewal at year's end. The big tenant says he'll leave unless the owner provides $2 million in tenant improvements.

“As an owner, am I going to put that money into an asset that I am under water on and having to extend my loan? No, I'm not going to do it,” Rogers maintains. “With my $2 million I'm going to go and buy a distressed asset and just write off whatever equity I have in that property.”

At this point the bank will have to decide whether to let the asset deteriorate further, to become an equity investor and retain the tenant, or to simply take the asset back and try to sell it. “This has already started to happen,” Rogers observes, “and is really at the crux of starting to get these defaults rolling.”   Read more.

Tough Times For Commercial Real Estate

Our local newspaper is figuring out what many of us have known for a while: the local commercial real estate market is pretty bleak. But that all depends on which side of the fence you're on. Interestingly, 2009 for me was a fairly busy one, with nearly all of my deals occurring on the leasing side. Last year I saw a lot of relocation...basically people moving from one leased space to another because of more favorable rents and aggressive tenant incentives. I did not see all that many startups, though. I do agree (as I had stated in this 12/19/09 post), GDP and employment will lead the way out of the recession. For the most part, however, asking rents are still way too high in some parts of town to attract new startups in such a tough economy. One thing's for sure, landlords who don't have particularly attractive or strategic locations, and who refuse to get aggressive are going to end up getting steamrolled. Story link below (Sarasota Herald).

Tough times for commercial real estate

By KEVIN L. McQUAID

Published: Monday, January 4, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

To borrow a biblical expression, it may be easier these days to pass a camel through the eye of a needle than it is to get a commercial real estate loan.

Despite federal bail-out money intended to stimulate lending, loans for investment in office buildings, shopping centers, industrial sites and raw land are increasingly rare, the result of falling values and other factors.

Commercial property owners and mortgage brokers say the lack of capital also stems, in part, from new federal regulations intended to staunch foreclosures and halt the aggressive lending practices of the early 2000s.

"It's ironic that the federal government put all the stimulus money into banks, while another branch of the government is over-regulating capital reserve requirements on banks," said Brett Hutchens, chief executive officer of Casto Lifestyle Properties, a Sarasota development firm that owns shopping and lifestyle centers nationwide.

"The same government is providing both the carrot and the stick to lenders," Hutchens said. "It's created gridlock and made lending and borrowing very, very difficult."

"It's a Catch-22 the government has imposed," said N.J. Olivieri, president and owner of Sarasota-based Horizon Mortgage Corp. "They tell the banks to make loans but then tell the FDIC to tighten the restrictions on new lending."

New regulations notwithstanding, lenders say the pullback in available credit is appropriate, given the shaky economy.

"Banks are simply not looking to take extended risk today," said Charlie Murphy, chief executive of the Bank of Commerce, a Sarasota lender, and a board member of the Florida Bankers Association, a trade group.

"It's not unusual for banks, in bad economic times, to tighten their lending standards," Murphy said. "And regulators are not too happy these days about allocating new money to commercial real estate."

Other forces

Banks have been hurt, as well, by other forces beyond their control.

Most notable has been the exit from the lending market by risk-averse insurers and pension funds, typically a key source for permanent mortgages.

That has crippled commercial real estate owners seeking to refinance or simply shift loans from banks, as is usually done.

That, in turn, has forced banks to keep mortgages on their books, which further limits their ability to cut new loans -- especially in the construction and real estate sectors.

The precipitous drop in commercial real estate values -- combined with falling rental rates on nearly every property segment -- represents the largest factor in the dearth of lending, however.

Retail rental rates have fallen by as much as half, and many tenants remain unable to pay rent at all, part of the fallout from the longest economic recession since the Great Depression.

Vacancies, too, from super-regional malls to neighborhood-anchored strip centers, have risen dramatically.

"In many cases, shopping centers are full, but not all of the tenants are paying rent," Olivieri said. "Landlords don't want their space to go dark, so they're letting them stay put."

Office rents have also fallen, in Southwest Florida and nationwide -- by 20 percent to 30 percent in some cases.

"In some submarkets, there is an even greater devaluation of rents," said John Harshman, president of Harshman & Co., a Sarasota commercial real estate brokerage firm.

The lack of income, and decrease in values, has forced many property owners to come up with new equity on loans to satisfy lenders' re-appraisals, investors say, even on performing mortgages.

Regulators, too, are calling on banks to beef up reserves and loan coverages by thinning loan-to-value ratios.

Restrictions

Meanwhile, the few commercial real estate loans that are available come with excessive restrictions, including onerous equity requirements and repayment schedules, which are also the result of new federal regulations.

In many cases, lenders that once required investors to put down 20 percent or 30 percent equity are demanding twice those percentages -- and borrowers' personal guarantees -- before they will consider loaning money.

"We've gone from having an unsecured line of credit, on a performing loan, to getting a commitment for just one-year from the bank, and the terms are complex," said Andy Dorr, a senior vice president with Githler Development Co., a Sarasota real estate investment and development firm.

As a result, Horizon and others have begun lining up equity partners for developers or investors, Olivieri said.

At the same time, Dorr said, the costs associated with commercial real estate borrowing -- appraisals, origination fees, legal expenses and environmental analysis -- have increased in many cases.

The hiked fees and the lack of new capital are both tied, investors and lenders say, to the fear that a commercial real estate meltdown is in the offing. Already, development giants such as mall owner General Growth Properties have defaulted on commercial real estate loans -- a signal to some analysts that another wave of foreclosures is ahead. Next year alone, hundreds of billions of commercial real estate loans, many of which were cut during the real estate boom and required interest-only payments, will mature or come due nationwide. When that occurs, many predict, defaults will spike.

"Everyone keeps saying that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop," Hutchens said. "Well, I have to agree: It's about to drop."

The answer, industry experts say, can be summed up in a single word: Jobs.

"We have to stimulate the economy with more jobs and small business," Murphy said. "When we have jobs, then businesses expand and the economy cycles upward. The opposite is also true, and it creates a vicious, self-fulfilling prophecy."

"People have to go back to work," Olivieri said. "Specifically, in construction.

"Construction has always led the way out of recession; it's key. It starts the employment cycle, and then retailers hire and the cycle returns to supply and demand. But if you don't have a job, if you don't know where your next dollar is coming from, then you don't spend," Olivieri said.

Unfortunately, for Florida, that job growth may be a long time in coming.

Unemployment in Southwest Florida stands at 12.7 percent, slightly above the 11.5 percent statewide average, which is at the highest level since October 1975. Nationally, unemployment is just under 10 percent.

Even more dire are some economists' predictions that Florida's unemployment rate will not fall to 6 percent -- within the range of a moderately healthy economy -- until 2018.

If that proves true, experts believe commercial real estate will remain depressed well into the future.

"The 12 percent unemployment rate in Sarasota and Manatee counties, and the 10 percent rate nationally, will create more commercial real estate vacancies," Harshman said. "And more vacancies will, in turn, further drive down commercial real estate values."

LINK

So Long, 2009.

What a year you were.

Business was very much like a roller coaster this past year, with most my deals occurring during the summer and within the past two months (Nov-Dec). Overall I would rate 2009 as not too bad. 95% of my sales came from leasing. Nearly 100% of my leasing deals were taking people out of high rent situations and repositioning them into lower rent opportunities.

I have more bank-owned inventory than I did last year and I am only expecting that to increase. I am also expecting those waiting in the wings for distressed assets to finally start showing up, probably in the mid to latter part of 2010.

Where's the bottom? Who knows. And no one is likely to know until things start turning around. I believe (and have always believed) Florida's geography will help it emerge a little sooner than other distressed areas. If you're looking for a sign, keep an eye on GDP and employment figures.

So here's a toast to the year that was: 2009. Don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Latest Office Vacancy Report (November)

The numbers are in for 11/09. They are as follows**:

Downtown Sarasota: 13.74% (+)
University Parkway: 18.22% (-)
I-75 Fruitville S to Clark: 21.27% (n/c)
Venice: 22.03% (n/c)
North Port: 37.28% (n/c)
Suburban & South Trail: 27.84%

** = does not include sublet space.

Leased Another One! John Deere.

Moline, Ill-based JOHN DEERE, INC. (NYSE: DE) has leased 10,000SF of office and warehouse space for its landscape division at 1360 12th Street in Palmetto from HDVN, LLC. Deere, a $28-billion (worldwide sales) company, is ranked 102 in the Fortune 500, and leased the space for 3 years with options. Anthony V. Migliore of Coldwell Banker Commercial represented the tenant. The landlord was self-represented.

Is The Bottom Near? Forecast Says So.

Tough to say.

I'm of the belief that rents in certain areas of town cannot go much lower at this point. I have a few properties where, after the pass-through expenses are stripped out of the gross rental figure, the owner is maybe taking in $0.50 a foot or even less at the end of the day. Doesn't leave much room for error. And even with these record low rents, tenants are tough to come by. In some of these cases, theoretically, the property is probably worth more vacant than with a credit tenant in place. Sad but true.

Pricing anything is very difficult due to a lack of reliable comps. I get some ridiculous "drive-by" sign calls from people offering $20/ft for halfway decent downtown property. Can't blame 'em for trying, I guess!

Emerging Trends: "The Bottom is Near!" Predict CRE Forecasters
Most Market Forecasters See a Pricing Bottom Next Year, and at Least One Prognosticator Suggests that Transaction Pricing for Institutional Investment-Quality Real Estate May Have Already Bottomed in the Third Quarter

By Randyl Drummer

November 4, 2009

Having reviewed the next round of commercial real estate surveys, forecasts and emerging trends issued this past week for 2010, about the only good news appears to be that the market has hit bottom -- or will soon. Rents and values have continued to fall across virtually every commercial real estate sector and across almost every market.

However, forecasters see the prospect for near-term opportunity once the markets bottom out, bringing a long-expected deluge of loan workouts, write downs, defaults and foreclosures -- along with the time-tested rush by patient, cash-rich investors, who, with some fortunate timing, will be able to tap some very attractive buying opportunities at bottom-of-the-cycle prices.

Also, leasing activity is expected to increase as tenants seek to take advantage of sharply lowered rents, resulting in more potential commissions for brokers, but also likely resulting in more pressure on highly leveraged building owners.

At least five major surveys and forecasts have been released since late last week by such influential industry groups as Real Estate Roundtable, the MIT Center for Real Estate, the National Multi Housing Council and NAIOP. PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute released one of the industry's most widely watched surveys, the annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate, on Thursday morning.

The surveys tend to confirm the 2010 projections made last month by CoStar and its newly acquired analytics and forecasting advisory firm, Property Portfolio and Research Inc. (PPR), which were among the first forecasts to be released. The office vacancy rate stood at 13% at the end of the third quarter, and CoStar forecasts several more quarters of negative absorption and another 300-basis-point increase in the vacancy rate to 16% as the office market trails what's shaping up to be a "jobless recovery." Strong demand for office space is not expected to return until 2011-12, but when it does recovery should be robust, with the national office vacancy rate expected to fall to 10.5% by 2014 if job numbers begin to pick up as expected, according to CoStar and PPR projections.

Looking ahead, CoStar forecasts that the national industrial vacancy rate will rise from 10.2% in the third quarter to as high at 11% next year, but the amount of negative net absorption -- which approached nearly 150 million square feet year to date through the end of the third quarter -- should taper off over the next couple of quarters. The industrial market will slowly resume leasing activity starting in mid-2010, generating reasonably strong positive quarterly absorption through 2013. Rents, however, likely will remain moribund for two or three more years.

Coming off an idle 2009, the next year will likely rank as the slowest year of the modern era for new development, according to projections covering US market conditions presented by CoStar in a series of webinars last month.

A record 900 people participated in this year's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010 survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and ULI. The results won't do much to either comfort the pessimists or encourage the optimists.

Across the board, investor sentiment was at or near record lows. Survey respondents predicted that vacancies will rise and rents will fall in all property types before the market hits bottom next year. Only apartments rated as a "fair" prospect, with all others sinking into the fair to poor range, with respondents especially bearish on retail and hotels. Development prospects ranged from "dead" and "abysmal" to "modestly poor."

"Not surprisingly, the overwhelming sentiment of Emerging Trends interviewees remains decidedly negative, colored by impending doom and distress over prospects for an extended period of anemic demand and costly deleveraging," the report said.

On the other hand, value declines of 40% to 50% off 2007 peaks will present once-in-a-generation opportunities, respondents said. "A sense of nervous euphoria is growing among liquid investors who can make all-cash purchases” from distressed sellers and banks, said ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Real Estate Finance Stephen Blank.

Debt markets will begin to recover, but loans will be conservative, expensive, and extended only to a lender's best customers. REITs and private equity funds will get into the action, providing loans to battered borrowers at a steep price.

The survey finds near-record lows in investment sentiment in every property type. Only apartments registered fair prospects with all other categories sinking into the fair to poor range. Hotel and retail record the most precipitous falls. Development prospects are “largely dead” and drop to new depths and practically to “abysmal” levels for office, retail and hotels. Warehouse and apartments scored only marginally better at “modestly poor.”

READ THE REST OF THE ARTICLE HERE

Leased Another One!

This baby is 90% leased!

Many thanks (and congratulations) to Mr. Horras Sheffield and his wife for renting our nice little 1,000SF retail unit for his upcoming package liquor store. I still have one 1k SF unit left in this strip center at 4034 N Washington Blvd in Sarasota and then it will be 100% leased. Mission not quite accomplished...yet! Landlord is motivated, so bring me something.

Latest Office Vacancy Report (October)

Numbers are in. Most areas with the exception of I-75 Fruitville (down) have edged up. No change in Venice. North Port is edging near 40% vacancy and this does not include sublet space. Herewith the numbers:

Downtown Sarasota: 13.41% +
University Parkway Area: 20.31% +
I-75 Fruitville South to Clark: 21.27% -
Venice: 22.03% (N/C)
North Port: 37.28% +
Suburban & South Trail: 27.84% -

Leased Another One!

I leased this office in Lakewood Ranch to an accountant in a short three weeks after I took the listing. The price was great and the tenant loved the space. It came fully furnished with desks, chairs and even a kitchen sink...the tenant is here for three years. Congratulations to the tenant: Cozzette Accounting Co., LLC! No outside broker was involved with the deal.

Leased Another One - 6,088SF

What a great deal! Both tenant and landlord are going to make out well on this one. Tenant got great rent and landlord got a ton of capital improvements. This lease was for 6,088 SF and located at 167 Progress Circle in Venice, FL. Recession? Where?

Just Listed

PROPERTY IS NOW FULLY LEASED! THANK YOU FOR YOUR INQUIRIES.

Just an idea how inexpensive office space is getting out in Lakewood Ranch. This one's fully furnished.

Latest Office Vacancy Report

Sarasota EDC released its latest numbers...

Downtown Sarasota: 13.21%
University Parkway Area: 18.00%
I-75 Fruitville South to Clark: 22.97%
Venice: 22.03%
North Port: 35.13%
Suburban & South Trail: 28.02%

Note: this does NOT include sublease space. Numbers are definitely higher when this is factored in.

FDIC To Dump Nearly $5-Billion in Distressed Assets

Mostly note sales...

FDIC Launching Nearly $5B of Asset Sales

Sep 4, 2009 - CRE News

The FDIC is expected to shortly bring to market a whopping $4.7 billion of mixed quality residential and commercial real estate loans that it assumed from some 20 failed banks.

The assets will be offered through what the agency and its contractors call structured offerings, in that investors will buy only an interest in each portfolio sold, while FDIC will keep the remainder. And the agency is expected to include elements of federal government's proposed public-private investment partnership, or PPIP program, in that it might offer seller financing.

The largest of the offerings will involve $2.7 billion of residential acquisition and development loans that will be marketed through Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, which has handled a number of previous FDIC loan sales.

The other portfolios will each involve roughly $1 billion. Deutsche Bank will offer a package of commercial mortgages, while a venture of Midland Loan Services and Pentalpha Capital Group will handle the sale of a portfolio of commercial acquisition and development loans.

Each of the advisers is said to be close to formally distributing sales announcements, with bid dates expected to be in mid- to late-October.

The agency has so far sold $4.9 billion of assets through six similar structured sales. But it did not offer seller financing for those. It sold stakes of 20 percent and 40 percent in each portfolio, with the interests having a face value of $1 billion. Their sale has generated total proceeds of $209.8 million, or 20.7 percent of the interest's face value.

Those proceeds compare with the 47.7 percent sales price for the $2.9 billion of loans the agency has sold through whole-loan offerings, or what it terms cash sales. Those offerins have been conducted by DebtX and First Financial Network.

Click here for a listing of FDIC's completed loan sales.

But the agency's proceeds in the structured offerings could increase over time.

It's clear that the agency is selling assets at or near the bottom of the market. And investors understand that the agency must sell, especially since banks continue to fail, swelling the FDIC's workload. So the prices at which assets from failed banks sell could be artificially deflated. By keeping a stake, it could theoretically benefit when market conditions and values improve.

Meanwhile, the agency earlier this week took offers for a stake in a $1.4 billion portfolio of residential mortgages taken from Franklin Bank of Houston. The offering, handled by RBS, was the first that adopted the government's Legacy Loan Program, through which the FDIC would provide generous financing to buyers.

Investors competing for the portfolio were asked to bid a price for a 20 percent stake, if they didn't require financing, or 50 percent, if they needed financing. Like in all of FDIC's structured offerings, the investors' stake would grow to 40 percent if certain performance thresholds were met.

The buzz is that the RBS portfolio attracted a high bid of 60 percent of face value. But that could be explained by the fact that 70 percent of the portfolio was comprised of performing mortgages.

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Commercial Activity Predicted To Pick Up, Values Stagnant

Latest report from The CoStar group shows we're possibly headed toward some increase in transactional activity. I'm busier than I've been in over a year and have plenty of prospects and deals in the pipeline - so many at this point that I'm able to cherry pick. The upcoming plays WILL be in distressed assets. That doesn't look too positive for the private sellers out there as they'll have to compete with the flood of foreclosed assets being unloaded.

CRE Sales Will Pick Up, But Values Expected to Stay Flat Through '12
Jones Lang LaSalle Study Finds Banks Will Eventually Be Forced to Stop Delaying REO Foreclosures and Begin Taking Back the Keys of Distressed Assets

By Randyl Drummer
September 9, 2009
Credit markets for office, industrial, retail, hotel and multifamily property should see the effects of a gradual return of liquidity during the second half of 2009, Jones Lang LaSalle predicted in its U.S. Midyear Capital Markets Bulletin released last week.

In it, and in a separate report on global market performance issued this week, JLL noted that several trends are expected to help begin to restore capital markets over the next year, including the $33 billion in equity raised and $5 billion in debt issued through the first eight months of 2009 by global REITs. Also, with the world economy starting to recover, JLL noted foreign real estate investors are again circling select U.S. markets, and real estate companies are finally tapping into government programs such as the Federal Reserve's Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF). For the first time in what seems like ages, meanwhile, the gap in price expectations between buyers and sellers is starting to narrow in the third quarter, JLL executives said.

But while all that may sound great, "it is unlikely that any true debt liquidity will return to the market until mid-2010 at the earliest" with the recession and unemployment continuing to batter occupancies and drive down rents, cautioned Kenneth Rudy, president of Jones Lang LaSalle’s Capital Markets practice.

Still, that may be welcome news to investors battered by the dramatic decline in U.S. property sales and prices that occurred in the first half of 2009. According to CoStar data, the value of Class A office buildings declined by 57% in the first half of 2009 compared with prices paid at the peak of the market in 2007. Industrial and institutional-grade retail property sales declined even more sharply, falling 71% sand 86.5%, respectively, since their 2007 peaks.

By mid-2010, JLL predicts investor interest in U.S. markets will slowly begin to return. But transaction activity likely won't reach the dizzying levels of the 2005-07 market "for a generation or longer," Josh Gelormini, vice president of capital markets research, tells CoStar Advisor. And that may not be such a bad thing for players who manage to fight another day after surviving the current downturn, following an era in which cheap and easy credit and overzealous speculation led to the latest and worst commercial real estate price bubble.

"We're definitely still in early stages of the distressed asset game, working out the assets most likely to have been bought during the boom years, and it's going to take a while to work itself out," Gelormini said. "The fact that large investors around the world are starting to see attractive values and act on the opportunities will help speed the process some, but it will still take several quarters for sales activity to stabilize."

"Although we feel transaction volumes have very likely bottomed and will be turning upward the next quarter or two, values will still have some more downward pressure into next year before we see stabilization."

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