Latest Office Vacancy Report, Sarasota County

The numbers are in for December. Downtown vacancy edged up, University Parkway vacancy is down and the rest appear stagnant. Overall vacancy is 19.15%.

Herewith the numbers:

Downtown Sarasota: 13.74% +
University Parkway Area: 18.22% -
I-75 Fruitville South to Clark: 21.27% (N/C)
Venice: 22.03% (N/C)
North Port: 37.28% (N/C)
Suburban & South Trail: 27.84% (N/C)

Source: Sarasota EDC

Tough Times For Commercial Real Estate

Our local newspaper is figuring out what many of us have known for a while: the local commercial real estate market is pretty bleak. But that all depends on which side of the fence you're on. Interestingly, 2009 for me was a fairly busy one, with nearly all of my deals occurring on the leasing side. Last year I saw a lot of relocation...basically people moving from one leased space to another because of more favorable rents and aggressive tenant incentives. I did not see all that many startups, though. I do agree (as I had stated in this 12/19/09 post), GDP and employment will lead the way out of the recession. For the most part, however, asking rents are still way too high in some parts of town to attract new startups in such a tough economy. One thing's for sure, landlords who don't have particularly attractive or strategic locations, and who refuse to get aggressive are going to end up getting steamrolled. Story link below (Sarasota Herald).

Tough times for commercial real estate

By KEVIN L. McQUAID

Published: Monday, January 4, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

To borrow a biblical expression, it may be easier these days to pass a camel through the eye of a needle than it is to get a commercial real estate loan.

Despite federal bail-out money intended to stimulate lending, loans for investment in office buildings, shopping centers, industrial sites and raw land are increasingly rare, the result of falling values and other factors.

Commercial property owners and mortgage brokers say the lack of capital also stems, in part, from new federal regulations intended to staunch foreclosures and halt the aggressive lending practices of the early 2000s.

"It's ironic that the federal government put all the stimulus money into banks, while another branch of the government is over-regulating capital reserve requirements on banks," said Brett Hutchens, chief executive officer of Casto Lifestyle Properties, a Sarasota development firm that owns shopping and lifestyle centers nationwide.

"The same government is providing both the carrot and the stick to lenders," Hutchens said. "It's created gridlock and made lending and borrowing very, very difficult."

"It's a Catch-22 the government has imposed," said N.J. Olivieri, president and owner of Sarasota-based Horizon Mortgage Corp. "They tell the banks to make loans but then tell the FDIC to tighten the restrictions on new lending."

New regulations notwithstanding, lenders say the pullback in available credit is appropriate, given the shaky economy.

"Banks are simply not looking to take extended risk today," said Charlie Murphy, chief executive of the Bank of Commerce, a Sarasota lender, and a board member of the Florida Bankers Association, a trade group.

"It's not unusual for banks, in bad economic times, to tighten their lending standards," Murphy said. "And regulators are not too happy these days about allocating new money to commercial real estate."

Other forces

Banks have been hurt, as well, by other forces beyond their control.

Most notable has been the exit from the lending market by risk-averse insurers and pension funds, typically a key source for permanent mortgages.

That has crippled commercial real estate owners seeking to refinance or simply shift loans from banks, as is usually done.

That, in turn, has forced banks to keep mortgages on their books, which further limits their ability to cut new loans -- especially in the construction and real estate sectors.

The precipitous drop in commercial real estate values -- combined with falling rental rates on nearly every property segment -- represents the largest factor in the dearth of lending, however.

Retail rental rates have fallen by as much as half, and many tenants remain unable to pay rent at all, part of the fallout from the longest economic recession since the Great Depression.

Vacancies, too, from super-regional malls to neighborhood-anchored strip centers, have risen dramatically.

"In many cases, shopping centers are full, but not all of the tenants are paying rent," Olivieri said. "Landlords don't want their space to go dark, so they're letting them stay put."

Office rents have also fallen, in Southwest Florida and nationwide -- by 20 percent to 30 percent in some cases.

"In some submarkets, there is an even greater devaluation of rents," said John Harshman, president of Harshman & Co., a Sarasota commercial real estate brokerage firm.

The lack of income, and decrease in values, has forced many property owners to come up with new equity on loans to satisfy lenders' re-appraisals, investors say, even on performing mortgages.

Regulators, too, are calling on banks to beef up reserves and loan coverages by thinning loan-to-value ratios.

Restrictions

Meanwhile, the few commercial real estate loans that are available come with excessive restrictions, including onerous equity requirements and repayment schedules, which are also the result of new federal regulations.

In many cases, lenders that once required investors to put down 20 percent or 30 percent equity are demanding twice those percentages -- and borrowers' personal guarantees -- before they will consider loaning money.

"We've gone from having an unsecured line of credit, on a performing loan, to getting a commitment for just one-year from the bank, and the terms are complex," said Andy Dorr, a senior vice president with Githler Development Co., a Sarasota real estate investment and development firm.

As a result, Horizon and others have begun lining up equity partners for developers or investors, Olivieri said.

At the same time, Dorr said, the costs associated with commercial real estate borrowing -- appraisals, origination fees, legal expenses and environmental analysis -- have increased in many cases.

The hiked fees and the lack of new capital are both tied, investors and lenders say, to the fear that a commercial real estate meltdown is in the offing. Already, development giants such as mall owner General Growth Properties have defaulted on commercial real estate loans -- a signal to some analysts that another wave of foreclosures is ahead. Next year alone, hundreds of billions of commercial real estate loans, many of which were cut during the real estate boom and required interest-only payments, will mature or come due nationwide. When that occurs, many predict, defaults will spike.

"Everyone keeps saying that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop," Hutchens said. "Well, I have to agree: It's about to drop."

The answer, industry experts say, can be summed up in a single word: Jobs.

"We have to stimulate the economy with more jobs and small business," Murphy said. "When we have jobs, then businesses expand and the economy cycles upward. The opposite is also true, and it creates a vicious, self-fulfilling prophecy."

"People have to go back to work," Olivieri said. "Specifically, in construction.

"Construction has always led the way out of recession; it's key. It starts the employment cycle, and then retailers hire and the cycle returns to supply and demand. But if you don't have a job, if you don't know where your next dollar is coming from, then you don't spend," Olivieri said.

Unfortunately, for Florida, that job growth may be a long time in coming.

Unemployment in Southwest Florida stands at 12.7 percent, slightly above the 11.5 percent statewide average, which is at the highest level since October 1975. Nationally, unemployment is just under 10 percent.

Even more dire are some economists' predictions that Florida's unemployment rate will not fall to 6 percent -- within the range of a moderately healthy economy -- until 2018.

If that proves true, experts believe commercial real estate will remain depressed well into the future.

"The 12 percent unemployment rate in Sarasota and Manatee counties, and the 10 percent rate nationally, will create more commercial real estate vacancies," Harshman said. "And more vacancies will, in turn, further drive down commercial real estate values."

LINK

Latest Office Vacancy Report (November)

The numbers are in for 11/09. They are as follows**:

Downtown Sarasota: 13.74% (+)
University Parkway: 18.22% (-)
I-75 Fruitville S to Clark: 21.27% (n/c)
Venice: 22.03% (n/c)
North Port: 37.28% (n/c)
Suburban & South Trail: 27.84%

** = does not include sublet space.

Leased Another One!

This baby is 90% leased!

Many thanks (and congratulations) to Mr. Horras Sheffield and his wife for renting our nice little 1,000SF retail unit for his upcoming package liquor store. I still have one 1k SF unit left in this strip center at 4034 N Washington Blvd in Sarasota and then it will be 100% leased. Mission not quite accomplished...yet! Landlord is motivated, so bring me something.

Latest Office Vacancy Report (October)

Numbers are in. Most areas with the exception of I-75 Fruitville (down) have edged up. No change in Venice. North Port is edging near 40% vacancy and this does not include sublet space. Herewith the numbers:

Downtown Sarasota: 13.41% +
University Parkway Area: 20.31% +
I-75 Fruitville South to Clark: 21.27% -
Venice: 22.03% (N/C)
North Port: 37.28% +
Suburban & South Trail: 27.84% -

Latest Office Vacancy Report

Sarasota EDC released its latest numbers...

Downtown Sarasota: 13.21%
University Parkway Area: 18.00%
I-75 Fruitville South to Clark: 22.97%
Venice: 22.03%
North Port: 35.13%
Suburban & South Trail: 28.02%

Note: this does NOT include sublease space. Numbers are definitely higher when this is factored in.

Sarasota Industrial Activity Up This Month

Finally some good news for once.

The local Catylist (commercial listing service) is showing 4 different industrial sales transactions occurring last week. The largest, a 40,000SF warehouse in Venice, went for $49PSF. Another, a 20,000SF metal warehouse with 2.3+ acres, and frontage on I-75, went for a strong $75PSF. A 14 year-old 7,500SF freestanding metal building on Porter Lake went for $80/ft. Finally, a 6,500SF building off of US301 sold for $80/ft. The final building was noted in my recent YouTube Video as being vacant. Glad to see that got sold. (Video has been noted).

I'm certainly heartened by the strong PSF numbers obtained on the last three properties, which averages just shy of $80/ft. Any week with 70,000+SF of sale absorption is a great one in my book.

Hopefully we'll see another round of these soon.

Leased Another One - 6,400 SF to National Tenant

Boulder, CO-based Camp Bow Wow (CBW) finally moved into their new digs: a 6,400 sf air-conditioned ILW-zoned property fronting 17th Street. ILW was the only favorable zoning that could accept a dog-daycare facility without a special exception.

CBW sunk nearly $150,000 worth of capital improvements into the landlord's building. We wish them and the landlord all the best! I was glad to help them.

Local Company Absorbs 50,000 Square Feet

See? All's not totally dead around here. There are at least some bright spots here and there.

Firm rents more warehouse space on McIntosh Road

By Michael Braga

Published: Monday, August 17, 2009 at 1:00 a.m.

In the midst of the toughest market conditions that anyone can remember, the Meridian Development Group has pulled off a coup.

The Clearwater company, which owns and manages a giant, 910,000-square-foot warehouse complex on McIntosh road in Sarasota County, has convinced a local bandage manufacturer to sign up for 50,000 square feet.

ASO Corp., the subsidiary of a Japanese corporation that has made adhesive bandages and other wound care products in Florida for 25 years, is one of those rare companies with the ability to expand in the middle of a recession.

"This is an expansion," said Steven Kossoff, Meridian's managing director. "In Sarasota, there were only two facilities that were large enough to meet their needs."

ASO's choice came down to price and amenities, Kossoff said.

"We have a fully fenced facility with 24-hour guard service and high ceilings that allow for more stacking," Kossoff said.

When pressed for details about price, Kossoff would only say that the lease rate was lower than the $5.50 per square foot the company had been asking in the past.

"It was lower than we've historically seen, but it was not too terrible," Kossoff said, especially in market conditions in which warehouse owners are getting clobbered.

Calls to ASO's headquarters in the Sarasota International Trade Center were not returned.

LINK TO ARTICLE

Sweet! Drive-by Video Makes the GCBR

The video about industrial vacancy made the Gulf Coast Business Review last week. It's been busy, so I apologize for neglecting to post this when it came out.

The article appeared in the "Coffee Talk" section and was entitled "A Depressing Drive Around Town."

Hopefully people found the video informative and useful. I know many of my clients have been appreciative of the information

In case you haven't seen it...CLICK HERE.

Leased Another One

Congrats are due to Jobs, Etc for taking on 3,500sf of space at 5755 N Washington for their summer vocational and training program. The building just happened to be a perfect fit. I still have another 4,000 or so feet left in this building. Just goes to show that multifaceted marketing and having an aggressive landlord will do wonders in this kind of market. Judging by the number or properties I'm showing as of late, leasing activity is not totally dead.

Tampa Industrial Vacancy Up

The latest report from Cushman Wakefield shows a noticeable gain in industrial vacancies the Tampa Bay area. Some eye-popping numbers: the area market shed almost 54,000 jobs, nine consecutive quarters of vacancy increases and six consecutive quarters of declining rents. Link to the article and FREJ is below.

TAMPA - The Tampa industrial market continued to weaken in the second quarter of 2009 primarily due to the decrease in industrial-related jobs and the sustained deficit of demand from tenants in the market looking to lease or buy space.

Since mid-year 2008, the Tampa Bay market lost a total of 53,900 positions, with the construction industry losing 13,800 positions, manufacturing employment decreasing by 6,800 jobs and trade, transportation and utilities losing 2,700 jobs. The negative job growth, coupled with the current economic slowdown has resulted in a continued lack of new and expansion leasing activity, increased vacancy and a decline in rental rates during the quarter.

Additionally, sales activity has been nearly non-existent due to the dip in prices buyers are currently willing to pay and their difficulty to obtain financing.

At the close of the second quarter, Tampa’s industrial market fundamentals continued to grow weaker, following the trend which began over a year and a half ago when the national and local economy both took negative turns.

For the ninth quarter in a row, overall vacancy throughout the market increased. The marketwide overall vacancy rate of 9.5% at the close of the second quarter of 2009 increased a full percentage point from the initial quarter of 2009 and increased an astounding 3.4% from the vacancy documented at mid-year 2008.

As can be anticipated with such a significant increase in vacancy throughout the market, overall absorption posted negative 623,026sf over the past three months, bringing the year-to-date total to negative 943,309sf. Although the current negative absorption total appears dramatic, when compared to the year-to-date total recorded this time last year, year-to-date 2009’s negative absorption increased just 107,207sf or 11.5%.

The feeble tenant demand currently being experienced in the market has resulted in a decrease in asking rents for the sixth straight quarter, bringing average asking net rental rates down to levels that haven’t been recorded in the market since the first quarter of 2006.

Marketwide, the direct net asking rental rate averaged $5.95 psf at quarter-end, a decrease of $0.41 psf since last quarter and $1.10 psf from this time last year. Warehouse/distribution space, which accounts for 70.4% of the industrial space in the Tampa market, experienced the largest decrease in asking rents, declining $0.44 psf since last quarter and a much more substantial $1.09 psf since this time last year to an average of $4.89 psf by the end of the second quarter of 2009.

Forecast

Clearly, this economic downturn has lasted much longer than originally anticipated. While much of the fallout in the industrial market can be traced to companies tied to the construction and manufacturing sectors, Cushman & Wakefield believes that the fallout from these segments is largely, if not almost completely, behind us.

Though the effects of the prolonged slump in the economy will continue to have a negative impact on the market well into 2010, current industrial market fundamentals are definitely favoring tenants in the market. Competition between landlords will continue to drive down asking rents and increase lease concessions, decreasing the tenant’s effective rental rate costs over the term of their lease.

Article Link

YouTube Video Makes The News

Nice to see the YouTube video has received some positive feedback, not only from clients but also from the media.

One thing this particular reporter asked me was if I had any resistance to new listings. That's a tough question to answer. My immediate thought was "yes, I am resistant to taking on new industrial listings." Upon reflection, however, it's genuinely true that good buildings priced right will still move. I suppose it depends on the circumstances. There no real "correct answer" with respect to pricing at the moment. Tough to say what the market will bear, especially if the market is pretty much AWOL. So that leaves everyone's pricing a wild guess at best - so few recent comparables are available that we have to extrapolate from various sources (i.e., whatever comps are available, rents, construction costs, etc) to arrive at something that makes sense. Even then, we can still be off. Without any response from potential buyers, it's still tough to judge. But the fact is good buildings will move if marketed correctly.

From The Bradenton Herald this morning.

Anthony Migliore, a Realtor for Coldwell Banker Commercial, closed on a deal involving a 56,000-square-foot facility in Palmetto last year, but says for the most part his listings have been tough to move.

Migliore also fears there’s plenty more inventory to be added.

He published a video on YouTube.com that examines industrial vacancies in Manatee County. The Realtor produced the video for his blog in an effort to be more creative in marketing the properties.

“If there is any positive sign, it’s that if you’re a business looking for industrial space it’s a good time to move,” Migliore said. “The biggest challenge on the sales end is there is still disconnect between sellers and buyers. Sellers, they want to maximize their return and try to get as much as they can in fairness.”

How bad is it? Just look.

I recently conducted a ride-along interview...the subject was industrial vacancy. Good commercial brokers should always know what kind of inventory is available in their market and, even though I'm still fairly young and have a pretty good memory, even I was overwhelmed by the sheer number of buildings for sale or lease. The interview below was conducted in an approximate one mile radius of the Whitfield/US301 intersection. Expand this area to the entire Manatee/Sarasota MSA and you can imagine it's nearly impossible to remember every single available building and price. A good portion of this inventory isn't even online anywhere.

Selling or leasing industrial property is truly a huge challenge for all agents and owners. This video underscores those challenges.

CMBS Red Shoots, RealPoint Report

From RealPoint. Tell us something we don't already know.

And I quoteth:

In June 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by a substantial $9.87 billion, up to a trailing 12-month high of $28.65 billion. Overall, the delinquent unpaid balance grew for the 10th straight month, up an astounding 585% from one-year ago (when only $4.18 billion of delinquent balance was reported for June 2008), and is now almost 13 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. An increase in four of the five delinquent loan categories was noted in June, including a significant $6.82 billion increase in the 30-day delinquency bucket. Nearly one-half of this increase was driven by the reporting of $3.38 billion of GGP-sponsored but specially-serviced loans as 30-days delinquent (the ultimate resolution of such loans to be determined). In addition, the distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 19th straight month – up 32% from the previous month and over 411% in the past year.

The full report is here.

June Office Vacancy Report (Sarasota County)

Vacancies inched up once again. We have about another percentage point of empty office space than we did a few months ago with the I-75/Fruitville, south to Clark corridor seeing a negative 40,651SF of absorption this year. Ouch!

Down and dirty numbers:

Countywide: 18.82%
University Parkway: 18%
Downtown: 13%
I-75/Fruitville S to Clark: 23%
Venice: 22%
North Port still sucking wind at: 35%
Suburban and South Trail: 26%

Area Losing Two Dillards Stores.

I'm wondering when the time will come where most large malls will either be bulldozed or turned into college campuses. No surprise DeSoto is losing tenants; you almost need a bodyguard or a gun to go shopping there. Everyone I know avoids that place.

2 Dillard's stores are said to be closing in the region

Dillard's confirmed it will close its store at Westfield Sarasota Square. Also, sales associates at the DeSoto Square Dillard's said they have been told that store will close before the end of the year.

By Toni Whitt

Published: Thursday, July 23, 2009 at 1:00 a.m.
Last Modified: Wednesday, July 22, 2009 at 10:02 p.m.

In another sign of stress on the Southwest Florida economy, giant retailer Dillard's is closing two of its four stores in the region.

The anchors at Westfield Sarasota Square and DeSoto Square Mall in Bradenton are two of the five store closings that the Little Rock, Ark.-based retailer plans nationally in 2009.

The company confirmed on Wednesday that the Westfield Sarasota Square is closing, but a corporate spokeswoman would not confirm the shuttering of the Bradenton site.

Sales associates, however, said they were told that the DeSoto Square Dillard's would close before the end of the year. Many of their co-workers have already been transferred to other stores.

Consumers have cut their spending at a nearly unprecedented level in the last year as the nation's financial crisis, recession and rising unemployment has reduced their wealth and willingness to part with cash.

Dillard's, with 306 department stores and nine clearance centers in 29 states, reported earlier this month that its same-store sales fell 15 percent for the five weeks ended July 5 -- a worse drop than analysts had expected.

The DeSoto store shows all the signs of closing. Display cases stand empty amongst the perfume and handbag displays, and nearly one-third of the department store's second floor has been roped off and filled with empty display racks and other fixtures.

The store is going to be hosting a shipment of clearance merchandise that will go on sale the week of Aug. 1.

If both stores close by the end of the year, there will be only one Dillard's department store -- at Westfield's Southgate mall in Sarasota -- between Port Charlotte and St. Petersburg.

Dillard's spokeswoman Julie Bull said the company has begun working with sales associates to move them to other stores, but that it might be impossible for some employees to stay with the company.

The pain in retail has yet to show major signs of abating after one of the worst holiday and spring seasons in decades. It is not expected to perk up in the important back-to-school season.

Even the normally optimistic National Retail Federation is projecting that consumers will spend nearly 8 percent less on back-to-school supplies than in 2008.

In Southwest Florida, plans for several malls have been put on hold, meaning that billions in new investment and thousands of new jobs are still possibly years away.

Those delayed projects include the University Town Center, a luxury mall slated for University Parkway and Interstate 75, a regional mall along I-75 in North Port and a one-million-square-foot retail center planned for Punta Gorda.

Westfield Corporation Inc., the Australian owner of Westfield Town Center, has plans to acquire the building Dillard's occupies at Sarasota Square and to develop the space, said spokeswoman Catherine C. Dickey.

"The company has a strong track record of recovering real estate and reorienting the space with other shops and restaurants," Dickey said.

That will be a challenge in this economy, and perhaps especially in Sarasota County where retailers have been closing at an unprecedented pace. Data from the county tax collector show that one in four retailers have gone out of business in the past year.

The closing of the Dillard's at DeSoto Square will be a blow to that aging mall, owned by Indianapolis-based Simon Property Group.

Starbucks, Old Navy, Lady Foot Locker and Waldenbooks all closed at the mall this year.

Across from Dillard's anchor at DeSoto Square are three empty storefronts, each bearing the sign "More Choices, More Opportunities."

DeSoto Square was built in 1973 and is showing its age. Simon, the largest shopping mall owner and operator in the U.S., bought the property in 1996 and immediately built a food court, but has done little since. The mall has three anchors besides Dillard's: J.C. Penney, Sears and Macy's.

Simon spokeswoman Les Morris declined to comment.

The company, a real estate investment trust, reported in May that its first-quarter funds from operations improved, but Simon cut its quarterly dividend 33 percent.

Local Jobless Rate Hits New High at 11.7%

In another blow to the local economy, we're teetering close to 12% unemployment. Although it seems as if jobless claims nationally have slowed, I'm wondering if that's just a temporary thing. I know quite a few people struggling or laid off - for some, this couldn't come at a worse time.

For us in commercial real estate, that means fewer people able to spend which means stores and businesses will close. This results in more vacancies and more trouble for landlords who may need to meet cashflow requirements...not a good scenario at all.

Region's jobless rate hits 11.7 percent

By Kevin McQuaid

Published: Friday, July 17, 2009 at 10:34 a.m.
Last Modified: Friday, July 17, 2009 at 10:34 a.m.

Unemployment jumped higher during June in Southwest Florida in June, with Charlotte County hitting nearly 12 percent and Manatee and Sarasota counties not far behind.

Just short of 1 million employable Floridians do not have a job.

There were 44,355 people out of work collectively in the three counties, for a regional unemployment rate of about 11.7 percent, according to data released Friday by the Florida Agency for Workforce Innovation.

Hardest hit was Charlotte County, which saw its unemployment rate climb to 11.9 percent in June from 11.4 percent in May.

Manatee County had a jobless rate of 11.8 percent, up from 11.2 percent the previous month.

Sarasota County’s unemployment rate was 11.4 percent, up 10.9 percent in May.

Meanwhile, Florida’s unemployment rate crept up to 10.6 percent in June to stay at the highest level since 1975.

The rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than the revised May unemployment rate and is 4.6 percent age points higher than June 2008.

That means about 970,000 employable Floridians don’t have jobs.

Florida’s unemployment rate is 1.1 percent higher than the national rate of 9.5 percent.

Office Tenants in Driver's Seat

Office Tenants Now in the Driver's Seat

Jun 26, 2009
By: Dees Stribling, Contributing Editor

Even before the financial meltdown last fall, most U.S. office markets were going noticeably soft. In particular, vacancies were rising as businesses downsized, reorganized or otherwise felt skittish about committing to any new use of office space. Now that the worst recession in at least a generation is under way, what was once only a worrisome trend for U.S. office landlords is full-blown reality.

Few dispute that current conditions in almost every office market could be called a “tenants' market.” Tenants have the edge now, provided they themselves aren't beaten up so badly by the economy that they can't take advantage of that fact.

Though each major metro market has its own distinct features, the overall numbers are telling. According to Reis Inc., the overall U.S. office vacancy rate climbed to 15.2 percent by the end of the first quarter of 2009, compared to 14.5 percent at year's end 2008 and 12.8 percent during 1Q08. Office-space users vacated nearly 25 million square feet during 1Q09, moving in tandem with the spike in the U.S. unemployment rate during that period. People go, then the space goes, and people are still going.

Moreover, since commercial real estate tends to be a lagging indicator, even if the economy starts to grow again later this year--something of a tall assumption--office landlords might not feel the benefit for quite a while longer than that.

In some ways, this office downturn is like previous ones, Bill Lichwala, president and CEO of Plante Moran Cresa told CPN. “Financially solid tenants are now able to negotiate with a lot of strength,” he said. “At first, landlords resisted lowering rents, and offered more concessions, because lower rents affect the building valuation a lot more.”

But now rents are going down. According to Reis, office rents were an average of 3.2 percent lower in the first quarter of 2009 than a year earlier.

“Landlords simply can't compete anymore without competing on rents,” said Lichwala, whose Southfield, Mich.-based firm specializes in tenant rep. “They can only offer so much in the way of incentives, and that's reached its limit.”

Lichwala pointed out that in one way, however, this office market isn't like previous slumps in space usage. “Previously, landlords needed to be sure that a tenant was creditworthy before a deal would be inked,” he said. “That's normal due diligence, and it hasn't changed. But now tenants need to be as sure of the solvency of the landlords as much as the other way around. It isn't any good to negotiate a sweet concession package if the landlord goes into receivership and can't afford it.”

LINK

Landlords and Tenants Alike More In Favor of Short-Term Leases

From the NYT. Pretty similar to what is going on locally. Link to full article below.

Both tenants and landlords seem to be growing afraid of commitment these days. With the economic outlook murky at best, fewer of them want to tie themselves to long leases.

Tina Fineberg for The New York Times

In Manhattan, where office leases often last 10 years, there has been a noticeable uptick recently of leases lasting only one to three years. Some prominent landlords have begun playing up the availability of short-term leases in their buildings.

For example, Paramount Group is advertising two-year leases at 1633 Broadway, between 50th and 51st Streets. And the Kushner Companies sent promotional materials to brokers advertising one- and two-year leases for finished offices in 666 Fifth Avenue, a prime office tower that spans the entire blockfront of Fifth Avenue between 52nd and 53rd Streets.

In all of Manhattan, 21 percent of the office leases that were signed in the fourth quarter of 2008 were for three years or less, compared with 15 percent in the corresponding quarter a year earlier, according to Cushman & Wakefield, a real estate brokerage firm that compiles data on commercial transactions. Brokers say they expect short-term leases to become even more fashionable this year.

“There’s a lot of anxiety out there, and short-term decisions are easier to rationalize,” said David L. Hoffman Jr., a principal at Colliers ABR, a real estate services company.

Mr. Hoffman is the leasing agent for some office towers in Manhattan whose landlords have recently signed short-term renewals with existing tenants. “There were tenants with one foot out the door, who were leaving spaces that required large capital improvements,” Mr. Hoffman said. “We decided it was more cost-effective to keep them in place.”

In recent months, he has negotiated five short-term lease renewals at 360 Lexington Avenue, a 24-story, 262,000-square-foot office tower on the northwest corner of 40th Street. Three of these renewals were for two years, and two were for one year.

Brokers say that smaller tenants tend to favor short-term leases now, while large office tenants still prefer the stability of long-term leases. For example, the short-term leases that Mr. Hoffman negotiated at 360 Lexington Avenue ranged in size from 2,500 square feet to 7,300 square feet. The tenants included a law firm, a technology firm, a small financial firm and two missions to the United Nations, which is nearby.

The building is owned by AEW Capital Management, a real estate company based in Boston, which bought it for $129 million in August. “We did not forecast higher rents when we bought the building, because the Bear Stearns building was nearby, and we knew there would be a shakeout in the financial sector,” said Jeff Furber, the chief executive of AEW Capital Management, which is a subsidiary of Natixis Global Asset Management, a French investment firm. Indeed, he said, “we liked the building because it didn’t have a lot of financial firms in it.”

Mr. Furber said that tenants were driving the demand for short-term contracts and that he would be happy to sign office leases for five years or more. “But business conditions are deteriorating so rapidly,” Mr. Furber said. “Tenants are saying that they’re just not sure how much space they’ll need in a year or two, so it is hard for them to commit.”

Matthew Astrachan, an executive vice president at Cushman & Wakefield, who represents both office tenants and landlords, said that the Manhattan office market had recently become a “tenants’ market,” meaning tenants now have the upper hand in negotiations with landlords.

The vacancy rate for the entire Manhattan office market as of the end of February had risen above 9 percent. But vacancy rates are even higher in the most expensive top-notch buildings, known in the industry’s jargon as Class A office space. The vacancy rate for Class A buildings in Midtown Manhattan has climbed to 10.6 percent, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

Mr. Astrachan said that in times like these, tenants can often negotiate with landlords for concessions — like long periods of free rent and capital improvement allowances — if they are signing 5- to 10-year leases.

But tenants signing leases of one or two years cannot negotiate as many perks. “They are slightly overpaying, in order to keep their flexibility,” he said.

Charlie Malet, the executive vice president in charge of national leasing for Shorenstein, a real estate company based in San Francisco, which owns several office buildings in Manhattan, said that short-term leases were attractive for both landlords and tenants now.

“Landlords don’t want to tie up space for what they perceive to be a low rent,” he said. “And if the tenants are a little uncertain about the long-term business environment, they don’t want to lock themselves into a 10-year deal.”

Mr. Malet said that Shorenstein recently signed a one-year lease renewal with Harbor View Advisors, an investment advisory firm, at 850 Third Avenue. Shorenstein bought this 39-story, 1.2 million-square-foot office tower last summer. The price tag was around $325 million, according to Real Capital Analytics, a New York research firm that tracks sales of office buildings.

Ken Perry, the chief investment officer and director of asset management for the Swig Company, a real estate concern in San Francisco, said the company had recently signed about half a dozen short-term leases at 1411 Broadway, one of several office towers it owns in Manhattan. Swig has had a 50 percent stake in this building since it was built in 1970, and is currently a co-owner with the Blackstone Group.

“This is the first time that I can remember when both landlords and tenants want to do short-term leases,” Mr. Perry said.

He said that usually one side or the other saw an advantage in this approach, depending on which direction rents were thought to be heading. “But with all of this uncertainty in the markets, neither side wants to go long term.”

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