2009 Retail Sales Down 6.2%, Highest Since 1992

Considering this news, I would expect to see more store closings, more layoffs and more vacant retail space in the coming months. 2008 wasn't nearly as bad and we saw quite a few retailers go under in 2009, namely Waldenbooks, Circuit City and Boater's World.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Retail sales fell in December as demand for autos, clothing and appliances all slipped, a disappointing finish to a year in which sales had the largest drop on record.

The weakness in consumer demand highlighted the formidable hurdles facing the economy as it struggles to recover from the deepest recession in seven decades.

The Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales declined 0.3 percent in December compared with November, much weaker than the 0.5 percent rise that economists had been expecting. Excluding autos, sales dropped by 0.2 percent, also weaker than the 0.3 percent rise analyst had forecast.

For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent, the biggest decline on records that go back to 1992. The only other year that annual sales fell was in 2008, when they slipped by 0.5 percent.

The 0.3 percent decline in December was the first setback since September, when sales had fallen 2 percent. Sales posted strong gains of 1.2 percent in October and 1.8 percent in November, raising hopes that the consumer is starting to mount a comeback.

Consumer spending is considered critical to any sustained economic revival since consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.

The December drop in sales was a surprise given that the nation's big retailers had reported better-than-expected results last week, reflecting a surge of last-minute holiday shopping. But even with the rebound reported by the nation's biggest chains, these retailers suffered their worst annual performance in more than four decades in 2008, according to data from the International Council of Shopping Centers.

The 6.2 percent fall in the government's retail sales figure is only the second decline on records that go back to 1992. In all other years, even during previous recessions, retail sales, which are not adjusted for inflation, have managed to increase.

For December, sales of autos dropped by 0.8 percent following a 1.2 percent rise in November.

Sales at specialty clothing stores fell by 0.6 percent while sales at general merchandise stores, a category that includes big retailers such as Wal-Mart, were down by 0.8 percent while sales at department stores were flat.

Sales at electronics and appliance stores dropped by 2.6 percent and sales at hardware stores dropped by 0.4 percent.

The weakness over the year reflected the battering that consumers have taken from the worst recession since the Great Depression, a downturn that has cost 7.2 million jobs and left households trying to rebuild savings depleted by losses on Wall Street and a crash in housing prices.

Economists are worried about consumer spending in the months ahead given their forecasts that unemployment, currently at 10 percent, will keep rising until perhaps midyear.

The overall economy, as measured by the gross domestic product, grew at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the July-September quarter and many economists believe that growth strengthened even further in the final three months of last year. However, the worry is that GDP will slow significantly in the early part of 2010 unless consumers continue to spend.

For December, a diverse group of retailers including Costco Wholesale Corp., Target Corp., Macy's Inc. and TJX all reported increases. Luxury stores like Saks Inc. and Nordstrom also saw strong December sales gains and even Sears Holdings posted a small gain on rising sales at its Kmart chain.

Also helping to support retail spending in December was a hint of better days ahead for the battered auto industry. Automakers in the United States ended their worst year in almost three decades in December with slight improvements, led by gains in sales of small cars.

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Is The Bottom Near? Forecast Says So.

Tough to say.

I'm of the belief that rents in certain areas of town cannot go much lower at this point. I have a few properties where, after the pass-through expenses are stripped out of the gross rental figure, the owner is maybe taking in $0.50 a foot or even less at the end of the day. Doesn't leave much room for error. And even with these record low rents, tenants are tough to come by. In some of these cases, theoretically, the property is probably worth more vacant than with a credit tenant in place. Sad but true.

Pricing anything is very difficult due to a lack of reliable comps. I get some ridiculous "drive-by" sign calls from people offering $20/ft for halfway decent downtown property. Can't blame 'em for trying, I guess!

Emerging Trends: "The Bottom is Near!" Predict CRE Forecasters
Most Market Forecasters See a Pricing Bottom Next Year, and at Least One Prognosticator Suggests that Transaction Pricing for Institutional Investment-Quality Real Estate May Have Already Bottomed in the Third Quarter

By Randyl Drummer

November 4, 2009

Having reviewed the next round of commercial real estate surveys, forecasts and emerging trends issued this past week for 2010, about the only good news appears to be that the market has hit bottom -- or will soon. Rents and values have continued to fall across virtually every commercial real estate sector and across almost every market.

However, forecasters see the prospect for near-term opportunity once the markets bottom out, bringing a long-expected deluge of loan workouts, write downs, defaults and foreclosures -- along with the time-tested rush by patient, cash-rich investors, who, with some fortunate timing, will be able to tap some very attractive buying opportunities at bottom-of-the-cycle prices.

Also, leasing activity is expected to increase as tenants seek to take advantage of sharply lowered rents, resulting in more potential commissions for brokers, but also likely resulting in more pressure on highly leveraged building owners.

At least five major surveys and forecasts have been released since late last week by such influential industry groups as Real Estate Roundtable, the MIT Center for Real Estate, the National Multi Housing Council and NAIOP. PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute released one of the industry's most widely watched surveys, the annual Emerging Trends in Real Estate, on Thursday morning.

The surveys tend to confirm the 2010 projections made last month by CoStar and its newly acquired analytics and forecasting advisory firm, Property Portfolio and Research Inc. (PPR), which were among the first forecasts to be released. The office vacancy rate stood at 13% at the end of the third quarter, and CoStar forecasts several more quarters of negative absorption and another 300-basis-point increase in the vacancy rate to 16% as the office market trails what's shaping up to be a "jobless recovery." Strong demand for office space is not expected to return until 2011-12, but when it does recovery should be robust, with the national office vacancy rate expected to fall to 10.5% by 2014 if job numbers begin to pick up as expected, according to CoStar and PPR projections.

Looking ahead, CoStar forecasts that the national industrial vacancy rate will rise from 10.2% in the third quarter to as high at 11% next year, but the amount of negative net absorption -- which approached nearly 150 million square feet year to date through the end of the third quarter -- should taper off over the next couple of quarters. The industrial market will slowly resume leasing activity starting in mid-2010, generating reasonably strong positive quarterly absorption through 2013. Rents, however, likely will remain moribund for two or three more years.

Coming off an idle 2009, the next year will likely rank as the slowest year of the modern era for new development, according to projections covering US market conditions presented by CoStar in a series of webinars last month.

A record 900 people participated in this year's Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010 survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and ULI. The results won't do much to either comfort the pessimists or encourage the optimists.

Across the board, investor sentiment was at or near record lows. Survey respondents predicted that vacancies will rise and rents will fall in all property types before the market hits bottom next year. Only apartments rated as a "fair" prospect, with all others sinking into the fair to poor range, with respondents especially bearish on retail and hotels. Development prospects ranged from "dead" and "abysmal" to "modestly poor."

"Not surprisingly, the overwhelming sentiment of Emerging Trends interviewees remains decidedly negative, colored by impending doom and distress over prospects for an extended period of anemic demand and costly deleveraging," the report said.

On the other hand, value declines of 40% to 50% off 2007 peaks will present once-in-a-generation opportunities, respondents said. "A sense of nervous euphoria is growing among liquid investors who can make all-cash purchases” from distressed sellers and banks, said ULI Senior Resident Fellow for Real Estate Finance Stephen Blank.

Debt markets will begin to recover, but loans will be conservative, expensive, and extended only to a lender's best customers. REITs and private equity funds will get into the action, providing loans to battered borrowers at a steep price.

The survey finds near-record lows in investment sentiment in every property type. Only apartments registered fair prospects with all other categories sinking into the fair to poor range. Hotel and retail record the most precipitous falls. Development prospects are “largely dead” and drop to new depths and practically to “abysmal” levels for office, retail and hotels. Warehouse and apartments scored only marginally better at “modestly poor.”

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Just Listed the Binz Building

Just a note: I am not intending to write about my listings here as that's not the point of the blog, but this one is worth a mention. I took this listing over from another agent in my office and, quite frankly, it's one of the coolest buildings I've had the pleasure of marketing. I've been driving by it for years and always thought the place would make a great loft to both live and work in. It's not zoned for that kind of use, but I could envision someone putting their business in the downstairs and (wink, wink) living upstairs.

Since so in many in town seem willing to tear the bulk of our historical landmarks down to make way for shiny new glass and steel buildings, you really don't see this type of commercial property in Sarasota anymore. FWIW, the last time I was in a vintage freight elevator was when I was in Brooklyn several years ago.

Check out the video below.