Look For Interest Rate Increases

Direct link at end of article.

Consumers in U.S. Face the End of an Era of Cheap Credit
By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ

Even as prospects for the American economy brighten, consumers are about to face a new financial burden: a sustained period of rising interest rates.

That, economists say, is the inevitable outcome of the nation’s ballooning debt and the renewed prospect of inflation as the economy recovers from the depths of the recent recession.

The shift is sure to come as a shock to consumers whose spending habits were shaped by a historic 30-year decline in the cost of borrowing.

“Americans have assumed the roller coaster goes one way,” said Bill Gross, whose investment firm, Pimco, has taken part in a broad sell-off of government debt, which has pushed up interest rates. “It’s been a great thrill as rates descended, but now we face an extended climb.”

The impact of higher rates is likely to be felt first in the housing market, which has only recently begun to rebound from a deep slump. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has risen half a point since December, hitting 5.31 last week, the highest level since last summer.

Along with the sell-off in bonds, the Federal Reserve has halted its emergency $1.25 trillion program to buy mortgage debt, placing even more upward pressure on rates.

“Mortgage rates are unlikely to go lower than they are now, and if they go higher, we’re likely to see a reversal of the gains in the housing market,” said Christopher J. Mayer, a professor of finance and economics at Columbia Business School. “It’s a really big risk.”

Each increase of 1 percentage point in rates adds as much as 19 percent to the total cost of a home, according to Mr. Mayer.

The Mortgage Bankers Association expects the rise to continue, with the 30-year mortgage rate going to 5.5 percent by late summer and as high as 6 percent by the end of the year.

Another area in which higher rates are likely to affect consumers is credit card use. And last week, the Federal Reserve reported that the average interest rate on credit cards reached 14.26 percent in February, the highest since 2001. That is up from 12.03 percent when rates bottomed in the fourth quarter of 2008 — a jump that amounts to about $200 a year in additional interest payments for the typical American household.

With losses from credit card defaults rising and with capital to back credit cards harder to come by, issuers are likely to increase rates to 16 or 17 percent by the fall, according to Dennis Moroney, a research director at the TowerGroup, a financial research company.

“The banks don’t have a lot of pricing options,” Mr. Moroney said. “They’re targeting people who carry a balance from month to month.”

Similarly, many car loans have already become significantly more expensive, with rates at auto finance companies rising to 4.72 percent in February from 3.26 percent in December, according to the Federal Reserve.

Washington, too, is expecting to have to pay more to borrow the money it needs for programs. The Office of Management and Budget expects the rate on the benchmark 10-year United States Treasury note to remain close to 3.9 percent for the rest of the year, but then rise to 4.5 percent in 2011 and 5 percent in 2012.

The run-up in rates is quickening as investors steer more of their money away from bonds and as Washington unplugs the economic life support programs that kept rates low through the financial crisis. Mortgage rates and car loans are linked to the yield on long-term bonds.

Besides the inflation fears set off by the strengthening economy, Mr. Gross said he was also wary of Treasury bonds because he feared the burgeoning supply of new debt issued to finance the government’s huge budget deficits would overwhelm demand, driving interest rates higher.

Nine months ago, United States government debt accounted for half of the assets in Mr. Gross’s flagship fund, Pimco Total Return. That has shrunk to 30 percent now — the lowest ever in the fund’s 23-year history — as Mr. Gross has sold American bonds in favor of debt from Europe, particularly Germany, as well as from developing countries like Brazil.

Last week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly crossed the psychologically important threshold of 4 percent, as the Treasury auctioned off $82 billion in new debt. That is nearly twice as much as the government paid in the fall of 2008, when investors sought out ultrasafe assets like Treasury securities after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the beginning of the credit crisis.

Though still very low by historical standards, the rise of bond yields since then is reversing a decline that began in 1981, when 10-year note yields reached nearly 16 percent.

From that peak, steadily dropping interest rates have fed a three-decade lending boom, during which American consumers borrowed more and more but managed to hold down the portion of their income devoted to paying off loans.

Indeed, total household debt is now nine times what it was in 1981 — rising twice as fast as disposable income over the same period — yet the portion of disposable income that goes toward covering that debt has budged only slightly, increasing to 12.6 percent from 10.7 percent.

Household debt has been dropping for the last two years as recession-battered consumers cut back on borrowing, but at $13.5 trillion, it still exceeds disposable income by $2.5 trillion.

The long decline in rates also helped prop up the stock market; lower rates for investments like bonds make stocks more attractive.

That tailwind, which prevented even worse economic pain during the recession, has ceased, according to interviews with economists, analysts and money managers.

“We’ve had almost a 30-year rally,” said David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor’s. “That’s come to an end.”

Just as significant as the bottom-line impact will be the psychological fallout from not being able to buy more while paying less — an unusual state of affairs that made consumer spending the most important measure of economic health.

“We’ve gotten spoiled by the idea that interest rates will stay in the low single-digits forever,” said Jim Caron, an interest rate strategist with Morgan Stanley. “We’ve also had a generation of consumers and investors get used to low rates.”

For young home buyers today considering 30-year mortgages with a rate of just over 5 percent, it might be hard to conceive of a time like October 1981, when mortgage rates peaked at 18.2 percent. That meant monthly payments of $1,523 then compared with $556 now for a $100,000 loan.

No one expects rates to return to anything resembling 1981 levels. Still, for much of Wall Street, the question is not whether rates will go up, but rather by how much.

Some firms, like Morgan Stanley, are predicting that rates could rise by a percentage point and a half by the end of the year. Others, like JPMorgan Chase are forecasting a more modest half-point jump.

But the consensus is clear, according to Terrence M. Belton, global head of fixed-income strategy for J. P. Morgan Securities. “Everyone knows that rates will eventually go higher,” he said. LINK

Volume of CMBS Delinquent Loans Climbs

We're not anywhere near out of the woods yet but it seems all these assets we anticipated to come to market are finally doing so (or are at least well on their way). There is a lot of money sloshing around out there, and buyers eager for aggressively priced (read: discounted) prime bank assets. Once we can get these assets on the market and into the hands of people who will capitalize upon them, I think we'll all be better off. For me this is some of the best opportunity I've seen since I started selling commercial real estate. Bring it on!

Volume of CMBS Delinquent Loans Climbs to $47.8B in February
Mar 29, 2010 - CRE News

Another $1.9 billion of CMBS loans became delinquent in February, bringing the total volume of delinquent loans to $47.8 billion, or 6% of the total universe tracked by Realpoint.

That compares with a rate of 5.76% a month earlier. If you exclude agency loans and those that are less than a year old, the delinquency rate in February was 6.32%.

Delinquencies will continue to increase. That's indicated by the $76.13 billion of loans that are in the hands of special servicers. While not all of those are delinquent, they're all at high risk of becoming late. Realpoint classifies loans as being delinquent when they're more than 30-days late.

To that end, Realpoint has updated its projection for delinquencies and now expects them to hit as high as 12% of the CMBS universe by the end of the year under a heavily stressed scenario. It expects delinquencies to be between 8% and 9% by mid-year. The $3 billion of financing on Manhattan's Stuyvesant Town/Peter Cooper Village apartment complex was not deemed delinquent as of the end of February, but did not make its March payment. So next month's delinquent-loan tally will be bolstered by at least $3 billion.

In a change from recent months, the Horsham, PA, rating agency saw a decline in the volume of loans classified as 30-days late. In February, $6.8 billion of loans were in that bucket, down from $7.7 billion a month earlier. The 60-day bucket also saw a decline, although not as pronounced, to $4.7 billion from $4.8 billion.

All other delinquency categories saw an increase in volume, with the 90-day bucket growing the most, to $25.9 billion from $23.8 billion. Many loans sit in that category for substantial periods of time as their workout or foreclosure strategies are ironed out. An example is the $4.1 billion of debt on the Extended Stay Hotels chain. It became delinquent last November, so its more than 90-days late. And it will stay that way as the hotel company gets recapitalized.

The delinquency rate for securitized hotel loans was 10.2% last month, up from 9.5% in January. Apartment loans have a 7.04% delinquency rate, up from 7%, and retail loans a 5.4% rate, unchanged from a month ago. The office delinquency rate, which has remained lower than that for the other major sectors, punched through the 4% market in February, to 4.2%, from 3.7% in January.

A total of $461.8 million of loans were liquidated during February, marking the third straight month during which more than $300 million were eliminated. Of the total, $222.2 million were resolved with little loss. Most of those were refinanced after their maturity date.

The best example of that was the $165 million of debt on 63 Madison Ave., a 797,377-square-foot office building in the midtown south area of Manhattan. The loan had matured in January.

A $105 million piece of the debt was securitized through COMM, 2005-LNP5, and the remainder through GE Commercial Mortgage Corp., 2005-C1. The loan was refinanced after its maturity date with a $150 million mortgage from Bank of China. The remaining $15 million was raised by the building's owner, George Comfort & Sons, by tapping a $15 million letter of credit that a tenant at the building used to guarantee its lease.

That resolution resulted in a loss of 1% to the deals that owned the matured debt.

Meanwhile, 44 loans with a balance of $239.6 million were resolved with losses that averaged 64.7% of their balance.

The largest of those had a $42.5 million balance and was backed by 1650 Arch St., a 553,349-sf office building in downtown Philadelphia that is owned by Behringer Harvard. The Dallas investment manager bought the loan, which was securitized through Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Securities Corp., 2002-CKS4, at a discount to its face value. The loan's resolution resulted in a loss of $9.5 million to the CKS4 deal.

Tough Times For Commercial Real Estate

Our local newspaper is figuring out what many of us have known for a while: the local commercial real estate market is pretty bleak. But that all depends on which side of the fence you're on. Interestingly, 2009 for me was a fairly busy one, with nearly all of my deals occurring on the leasing side. Last year I saw a lot of relocation...basically people moving from one leased space to another because of more favorable rents and aggressive tenant incentives. I did not see all that many startups, though. I do agree (as I had stated in this 12/19/09 post), GDP and employment will lead the way out of the recession. For the most part, however, asking rents are still way too high in some parts of town to attract new startups in such a tough economy. One thing's for sure, landlords who don't have particularly attractive or strategic locations, and who refuse to get aggressive are going to end up getting steamrolled. Story link below (Sarasota Herald).

Tough times for commercial real estate

By KEVIN L. McQUAID

Published: Monday, January 4, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

To borrow a biblical expression, it may be easier these days to pass a camel through the eye of a needle than it is to get a commercial real estate loan.

Despite federal bail-out money intended to stimulate lending, loans for investment in office buildings, shopping centers, industrial sites and raw land are increasingly rare, the result of falling values and other factors.

Commercial property owners and mortgage brokers say the lack of capital also stems, in part, from new federal regulations intended to staunch foreclosures and halt the aggressive lending practices of the early 2000s.

"It's ironic that the federal government put all the stimulus money into banks, while another branch of the government is over-regulating capital reserve requirements on banks," said Brett Hutchens, chief executive officer of Casto Lifestyle Properties, a Sarasota development firm that owns shopping and lifestyle centers nationwide.

"The same government is providing both the carrot and the stick to lenders," Hutchens said. "It's created gridlock and made lending and borrowing very, very difficult."

"It's a Catch-22 the government has imposed," said N.J. Olivieri, president and owner of Sarasota-based Horizon Mortgage Corp. "They tell the banks to make loans but then tell the FDIC to tighten the restrictions on new lending."

New regulations notwithstanding, lenders say the pullback in available credit is appropriate, given the shaky economy.

"Banks are simply not looking to take extended risk today," said Charlie Murphy, chief executive of the Bank of Commerce, a Sarasota lender, and a board member of the Florida Bankers Association, a trade group.

"It's not unusual for banks, in bad economic times, to tighten their lending standards," Murphy said. "And regulators are not too happy these days about allocating new money to commercial real estate."

Other forces

Banks have been hurt, as well, by other forces beyond their control.

Most notable has been the exit from the lending market by risk-averse insurers and pension funds, typically a key source for permanent mortgages.

That has crippled commercial real estate owners seeking to refinance or simply shift loans from banks, as is usually done.

That, in turn, has forced banks to keep mortgages on their books, which further limits their ability to cut new loans -- especially in the construction and real estate sectors.

The precipitous drop in commercial real estate values -- combined with falling rental rates on nearly every property segment -- represents the largest factor in the dearth of lending, however.

Retail rental rates have fallen by as much as half, and many tenants remain unable to pay rent at all, part of the fallout from the longest economic recession since the Great Depression.

Vacancies, too, from super-regional malls to neighborhood-anchored strip centers, have risen dramatically.

"In many cases, shopping centers are full, but not all of the tenants are paying rent," Olivieri said. "Landlords don't want their space to go dark, so they're letting them stay put."

Office rents have also fallen, in Southwest Florida and nationwide -- by 20 percent to 30 percent in some cases.

"In some submarkets, there is an even greater devaluation of rents," said John Harshman, president of Harshman & Co., a Sarasota commercial real estate brokerage firm.

The lack of income, and decrease in values, has forced many property owners to come up with new equity on loans to satisfy lenders' re-appraisals, investors say, even on performing mortgages.

Regulators, too, are calling on banks to beef up reserves and loan coverages by thinning loan-to-value ratios.

Restrictions

Meanwhile, the few commercial real estate loans that are available come with excessive restrictions, including onerous equity requirements and repayment schedules, which are also the result of new federal regulations.

In many cases, lenders that once required investors to put down 20 percent or 30 percent equity are demanding twice those percentages -- and borrowers' personal guarantees -- before they will consider loaning money.

"We've gone from having an unsecured line of credit, on a performing loan, to getting a commitment for just one-year from the bank, and the terms are complex," said Andy Dorr, a senior vice president with Githler Development Co., a Sarasota real estate investment and development firm.

As a result, Horizon and others have begun lining up equity partners for developers or investors, Olivieri said.

At the same time, Dorr said, the costs associated with commercial real estate borrowing -- appraisals, origination fees, legal expenses and environmental analysis -- have increased in many cases.

The hiked fees and the lack of new capital are both tied, investors and lenders say, to the fear that a commercial real estate meltdown is in the offing. Already, development giants such as mall owner General Growth Properties have defaulted on commercial real estate loans -- a signal to some analysts that another wave of foreclosures is ahead. Next year alone, hundreds of billions of commercial real estate loans, many of which were cut during the real estate boom and required interest-only payments, will mature or come due nationwide. When that occurs, many predict, defaults will spike.

"Everyone keeps saying that commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop," Hutchens said. "Well, I have to agree: It's about to drop."

The answer, industry experts say, can be summed up in a single word: Jobs.

"We have to stimulate the economy with more jobs and small business," Murphy said. "When we have jobs, then businesses expand and the economy cycles upward. The opposite is also true, and it creates a vicious, self-fulfilling prophecy."

"People have to go back to work," Olivieri said. "Specifically, in construction.

"Construction has always led the way out of recession; it's key. It starts the employment cycle, and then retailers hire and the cycle returns to supply and demand. But if you don't have a job, if you don't know where your next dollar is coming from, then you don't spend," Olivieri said.

Unfortunately, for Florida, that job growth may be a long time in coming.

Unemployment in Southwest Florida stands at 12.7 percent, slightly above the 11.5 percent statewide average, which is at the highest level since October 1975. Nationally, unemployment is just under 10 percent.

Even more dire are some economists' predictions that Florida's unemployment rate will not fall to 6 percent -- within the range of a moderately healthy economy -- until 2018.

If that proves true, experts believe commercial real estate will remain depressed well into the future.

"The 12 percent unemployment rate in Sarasota and Manatee counties, and the 10 percent rate nationally, will create more commercial real estate vacancies," Harshman said. "And more vacancies will, in turn, further drive down commercial real estate values."

LINK

Two More Banks Seized

Two more down.

Two Sarasota banks are seized and sold
Community National to reopen today, First State on Monday, as Stearns branches

By Michael Braga

Published: Saturday, August 8, 2009 at 1:00 a.m.

Regulators on Friday shut down First State Bank of Sarasota and Community National Bank of Sarasota County, two institutions that played in risky loans during the real estate boom and crumbled when the bubble burst.

The two banks, with a combined $560 million in assets, will reopen as branches of St. Cloud, Minn.-based Stearns Banks, which agreed to take over nearly all the failed banks' assets and property.

Community National's four branches are slated to open today under Stearns' ownership; First State's nine on Monday.

That is good news for a region already buffeted by the closings of Manatee County's First Priority and Freedom banks.

Though Community National and First State will be operating under new management, it is likely that Stearns will need some of the banks' more than 150 workers to operate in its first foray into Florida.

Finding a buyer also is easier on regulators, who have closed 71 federally insured banks so far this year. The two Friday closings bring to six the number of Florida banks that have been shuttered.

"We are very grateful that we found a buyer with the financial wherewithal to do this," said Linda Beavers, the FDIC's regional ombudsman. "It makes our job a lot easier."

Rather than sending deposit checks back to customers, regulators will simply have to account for the deposits and then transfer them to Stearns, a bank with nearly $1 billion in assets and seven branches in Minnesota and Arizona.

But shareholders for both banks were wiped out. First State's shares, which traded on the Nasdaq, was selling for 33 cents on Friday. Volume was more than three times normal the average.

Analysts fully expect more failures this year.

LINK

CMBS Red Shoots, RealPoint Report

From RealPoint. Tell us something we don't already know.

And I quoteth:

In June 2009, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by a substantial $9.87 billion, up to a trailing 12-month high of $28.65 billion. Overall, the delinquent unpaid balance grew for the 10th straight month, up an astounding 585% from one-year ago (when only $4.18 billion of delinquent balance was reported for June 2008), and is now almost 13 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. An increase in four of the five delinquent loan categories was noted in June, including a significant $6.82 billion increase in the 30-day delinquency bucket. Nearly one-half of this increase was driven by the reporting of $3.38 billion of GGP-sponsored but specially-serviced loans as 30-days delinquent (the ultimate resolution of such loans to be determined). In addition, the distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the 19th straight month – up 32% from the previous month and over 411% in the past year.

The full report is here.

Commercial Real Estate: "Ticking Time Bomb"

A few videos I ran across this week underscoring the current stress going on in the commercial real estate market.

Long, Hot Summer

CoStar recently polled some real estate experts and their findings are less than encouraging for the COMRE market. In fact, some of this is downright scary, depressing stuff. Below is an excerpt, follow the link below to read the entire article.

Despite Promising Signs, Many Wary that Recession's Knockout Punch Could Still Come
Commercial Real Estate Industry Says Recovery is Not Around the Corner

By Mark Heschmeyer
June 17, 2009
The End Is Near (for This Recession).

So read some of the economic placards that have been trotted out in policy statements these days with catchphrases such as 'Sustainable Recovery.' 'Recession Is Coming To An End.' 'Policy Actions Having an Effect.' 'Seeing Green Shoots of Growth.' and 'The Crisis Has Stabilized.' Many pointed to the more than 2,000-point climb in the Dow Industrial Average over the last three months as proof that federal stimulus measures appeared to be having an effect in rousing the slumping economy.

Just this week, chief economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., PNC Financial Services Group, Morgan Stanley and others said they expect the economy to "recover from its deep slump by late summer." The group that makes up the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers said they expect the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to increase 0.5% in the July-September quarter -- this after falling a projected 1.8% in the April-June period.

snip...

No Consumer, No Recovery

The bottom has not been reached in retail. Vacancies in the Whittier area are increasing and rents are still headed downward.
David Johnson, Partner at Johnson, O'Neill & Associates Inc. in Downey, CA

An alternative opinion to a quick 1.5- to 2-year recovery touted by many groups is that there can be no recovery because of the decline in consumer spending due to an individual's perceived loss on their net worth based on their home value.
Brian H. Strout, Acquisition Manager at Sciens Real Estate Management in Greenville, SC

The long and short of it is that so far, this seems like a recovery without the consumer. And I just don't think that in an economy driven 70% to 80% by the consumer, that a consumer-less recovery is possible. The credit card default rates are another telltale sign of mounting problems. Americans are running out of spending power from every angle (home equity, personal credit and now, income loss from job losses). And we haven't even seen the bubble start to burst in commercial.
Tony O'Neill, Broker at Voit Commercial Brokerage in San Diego, CA

I represent Healthy Fast Food Inc. They have a new branded concept they are opening up across the country called U-Swirl Frozen Yogurt. From a tenant point of view, HFFI along with my other clients are still very concerned about consumer spending, unemployment, consumer confidence, foreclosures, and the economy as a whole. If we have hit the bottom, then it is our view that we are going to stay there and bounce for quite a long time. U Swirl is only doing screaming deals. The kind where the landlord is screaming, not the tenant.
Ron Opfer, CCIM, Broker with Coldwell Banker Premier Realty in Henderson, NV

My assessment is that the economy will pick up starting fourth quarter of 2009 but the employment situation will only start to increase during first quarter of 2010. I think the worst of the commercial real estate market is still yet to come. Commercial markets will be in recession through mid next year.
KC Sanjay, Senior Economic and Real Estate Analytics at Guaranty Bank in Dallas, TX
Property Fundamentals Weak and Getting Weaker

I don't think the end is anywhere in site for a commercial real estate bottom. The CMBS market has yet to even start clearing the defaults. when these sales really start, they will dwarf the RTC volume. What these properties will sell for in a market without leverage is anybody's guess. My feeling is that the 25% percent down of years gone by will remain the same, although in the future, that will be the whole price! Just when things may hit bottom in a year or two, we will most probably be faced with hyper inflation, which is at best a forced savings account for performing assets, but at worst an additional huge stress for non-performing real estate. What will a half empty office building be worth in a declining market when prime is 14%? It is a scary thought.
Andrew J. Segal, President of Boxer Property in Houston, TX

I do not believe the end of the recession is in sight yet. The new 90-day moratorium on residential foreclosures commencing just [this week] will only exasperate a more severe response of the residential markets' attempt for correction upon expiration of the 90-day moratorium. The commercial real estate correction has only just begun and it will be a painful and significant correction. I believe 2009 will prove to be the worst single year of the last 50 years. Keep in mind; every office job loss represents a minimum of 250 rentable square feet, which goes idle and far more in other property types. When you do the math - it's staggering. Now factor in deleveraging the CRE universe, increased cap rates likely to settle in the 9% - 11% range based on stabilized income, increased cost of capital, high vacancy/availability rates, additional unemployment each month including continued historical layoff's post-bottom with a beginning recovery and the lack of debt and equity needed to help a correction along. . . what do you have? Answer = we have the "perfect CRE storm" and much restructuring to accomplish with no end in sight soon.
Richard A. Hawthorne, Principal of Hawthorne Cos. in Santa Monica, CA

The capital and debt markets for real estate remain dysfunctional. Moreover, there remains a large gap between the expectations of sellers and buyers. This means that virtually no arm's length commercial real estate sales are taking place. The small numbers of sales transactions that are reported mostly have been distressed sellers or workouts and do not establish an "arm's length" price or even a trading market. Until properties trade freely and with frequency, investors will remain reluctant to bid on acquisitions from fear of "catching a falling knife".
Louis J. Rogers, CEO of Rogers Realty Advisors LLC in Glen Allen, VA

Read the entire article here

South Florida Condo Developer Tarragon Files Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

The latest domino to fall. Tarragon was apparently caught up in the current perfect storm of bad timing, falling sales, lack of available credit and a sharp drop off in the housing sector.

Tarragon Corp. is the latest homebuilder to be hit by the housing crisis.

The company and 19 of its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization in New Jersey federal court on Monday.

Tarragon has developed four condominium projects in Jacksonville that include Bishop’s Court at Windsor Parke, Cobblestone at Eagle Harbor, Mirabella and Montreux at Deerwood Lake, none of which are sold out, according to the company’s Web site. Tarragon also owns four apartment communities, including Club at Danforth, River City Landing, Vintage at Plantation Bay and Woodcreek at Regency.

The estimated number of creditors is between 5,001 and 10,000. Assets have been estimated at about $841 million and liabilities at about $1.035 billion, court records show.

The three largest unsecured creditors are listed as New York-based Taberna Capital Management ($125.9 million), New Jersey-based AJD Construction Co. ($2.9 million) and Fort Lauderdale-based Omni Boys North Ltd. ($1.03 million).

Tarragon CEO William S. Friedman did not return a phone call for comment.

The firm has been an active developer of multifamily housing for rent and sale in Florida, Texas, Tennessee and the Northeast.

The bad news for Tarragon stockholders: The company said it does not expect there will be any distribution to equity holders in conjunction with the bankruptcy cases. Shares (NASDAQ: TARR) dropped from a dime to a nickel on the news.

The filing shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone who has followed the recent fortunes of the firm, which included steady losses – more than $105 million for the first nine months of the year – bargain sales of assets, shareholders suits, deposit forfeiture on land deals, compliance trouble with NASDAQ, margin calls on the stock of the chairman and his wife, and the company’s inability to secure long-term financing.

Tarragon said it had a commitment for debtor-in-possession financing from an affiliate of ARKO Holdings, an Israeli public company, and said the bankruptcy filing shouldn’t have any day-to-day effect on Tarragon’s property management subsidiary, or on the operation of its rental apartment properties.

Friedman said in a release that, based on discussions with unsecured note holders and the support of ARKO, he expects to structure a consensual plan with the creditors to preserve the value of its property management and development platforms, and maximize any return to creditors.

The Tarragon board is being advised by Lazard, and Friedman said in the company news release that the board did not rule out additional asset sales and “all available alternatives.”

Story Link

CoStar's First-Ever Vacancy Prediction Report: Tough Year Ahead

From CoStar this morning. Courtesy of CoStar:

This Year, Pain To Replace Gain

Nary a Bright Spot in CoStar Group’s First-Ever State of the Market/Industry Outlook

The pain felt throughout the U.S. housing market over the past two years is going to catch up with commercial real estate in 2009 when the country will begin to see spikes in office vacancy rates climbing as much as 300 to 400 basis points with many markets expected to experience severe negative net absorption.

That was the assessment of Andrew Florance, founder and CEO of CoStar Group Inc., as presented in the company’s first-ever 2009 State of the Office Market review and outlook delivered this afternoon from its Bethesda, MD, headquarters and webcast to CoStar clients across the country.

Florance’s presentation laid out the economics and fundamentals detailing the impact of the financial meltdown on commercial real estate, finding little upside to report with all indicators projecting continued:

• Constraint in the credit markets,


• Dearth of investment and construction activity,


• Corporate space contraction, and


• Falling property values.

The outlook is now for the current recession to take a higher toll, for a longer time, on commercial real estate than did the dot.com bubble burst of 2001-2002.

Rather than try to reproduce the entire presentation or beat the dead horse that is the economy, here is recap of just some of the highlights.

Contraction

Unlike in previous recessions in which the commercial real estate industry participated in its own demise through gross overbuilding, the current downturn was precipitated by an unparalleled run up in housing values and the subsequent burst of that bubble. Housing values continue to fall precipitously.

Overlaying commercial office values with housing values, Florance showed that, while commercial values also experienced a rapid ascent, those values peaked at substantially lower levels than the housing peak. Also based on historical norms, it appears housing values still have a ways to fall, while commercial office space values have already returned to much closer what are their norms.

That doesn’t mean that office values could hold at the level because clearly the market dynamics are working against them. The S&P 500 Index is down 40% from its highest levels and lower than what is has been in five years. The index is important to commercial real estate because without increasing stock prices, corporations will be less likely to expand. The lack of expansion is major drag on office space absorption, Florance said.

In addition to stock price declines, initial public stock offerings that fuel the growth of newer firms have dried up completely this year.

Corporate borrowing outside of federal government-assisted bailouts also has fallen to record lows - less than $25 billion/month in the most recent quarter compared to more than $400 billion just 18 months ago.

The commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS) markets also dried up completely in the fourth quarter and thus banks - were they even making loans - have nowhere to market or sell those loans to the secondary markets to make room to do more lending.

The employment picture is also dismal. The U.S. economy already lost more jobs (1.9 million) in 2008 than during the dot.com bubble burst in 2001-2002. Economy.com is forecasting as many as 3.1 million job losses in 2009.

Inventory Buildup

One small bright spot to current commercial real estate conditions is that there was very little surge of new supply leading up the recessionary environment starting in December 2007. Commercial office space is entering the downcycle from a position of relative strength. Nor is CoStar forecasting much additional in the way of new supply coming onto the market through 2012.

However, the office supply inventory is going to increase. In fact, the supply of available and vacant office space is beginning to increase as there is currently virtually no absorption of excess space occurring. Vacancy rates have begun to tick up as projects already under construction are being completed.

Combining the forecasts for job losses in 2009 and a dwindling supply of newly delivered space, CoStar is predicting that U.S. office vacancy rates could climb from a base of 11.1% at the start of last year to 15.1% in 2010.

Some U.S. markets will be hit harder than others but all are projected to grow to double-digit vacancy rates in 2009 and 2010. CoStar is projecting that the Phoenix and Detroit vacancy rates could exceed 20%.

Job losses are also projected to be heavy in South Florida, the New York Tri-State area and San Francisco and those markets will likely see fairly steep increases in their vacancy rates over the next two years.

There won’t be any clarity to when the markets can return to normal until the peaks in vacancies and the valleys in prices and rents hit top and bottom. In the two previous recessionary periods of early 1990s and 2001, office inventors did not return to the market until it was clear that the deterioration in conditions had stopped. And right now, the volume of investment activity is at or near its historical norms. So while the outlook for 2009 is grim, it is likely that the market for office building investments will remain flat through 2009.

"The market needs to establish a new bottom before a recovery can take hold," Florance cautioned. "The sooner we reach it, the better off we'll be. If property values need to fall to X, it's better to get there in 18 months not five years."

Faced with the grim outlook for 2009, a member of the audience asked Florance if he would advise the broker to give up his real estate practice and work on his golf game for the next 12 months. "Where do you golf?" Florance responded half jokingly before addressing the issue.

"We adjust. As we've all seen the industry do in past down cycles, we focus on leasing rather than sales and on property management rather than on new development. And we become advisors. Your clients are going to need your expert advice."

More Distressed Properties

Frequent readers of CoStar news are probably familiar with our coverage of distressed properties and delinquent loans. In preparation for its first market outlook, CoStar also undertook its first-ever complete analysis of delinquent and distressed properties in the CMBS market.

CoStar identified nearly 1,200 commercial real estate loans that were either delinquent in loan repayments or had reached maturity without pay off of the loan. The principal and interest outstanding on those loans as of mid December totaled nearly $8.2 billion.

CoStar also compiled a list of nearly 6,100 additional loans that servicers for the various securities have flagged as having potential credit concerns. The current scheduled ending balance of those loans totaled $57.8 billion.

In addition, CoStar identified more than 160 properties that had been repossessed by various CMBS trusts. The properties had a loan value at the time they were taken over of more than $1 billion. Based on the properties most recent valuations, the bondholders were likely to take a loss of more than $300 million.

Go Green

Not wishing to end on a dour note, CoStar’s Florance concluded the U.S. portion of the forecast with a look at so-called green properties, which continue to enjoy a premium in the marketplace in terms of higher occupancy levels, rental rates and sale prices compared with "non-green" peer buildings.

Currently in the U.S. only 1 in 15,000 properties are LEED or Energy Star certified. In fact, a new federal mandate that is set to go into effect in 2010 is that federal agencies will have to occupy green certified offices. According to Florance, the total federal requirement for green space outstrips the total available supply of green-certified buildings.

In analysis of 9.8 billion square feet of office inventory in CoStar’s database, CoStar found that the national occupancy rate of green-certified buildings was 300 to 588 basis points higher than non-certified buildings and commanded rents that were anywhere from $3 to $18 more per square foot per year than the average rent. Green buildings also sold at prices that were up to 64% than the average.

US Commercial In Downward Spiral

From the International Herald Tribune this morning. See bottom of the post for direct link.

U.S. commercial property in a downward spiral

By Charles V. Bagli

Monday, January 5, 2009

NEW YORK: Vacancy rates in office buildings exceed 10 percent in virtually every major city across the United States and are rising rapidly, a sign of economic distress that could lead to yet another wave of problems for the beleaguered financial sector.

With job cuts rampant and businesses retrenching, more empty space is expected from New York to Chicago to Los Angeles in the coming year. Rental income would then decline and property values would slide further. The Urban Land Institute predicts 2009 will be the worst year for the U.S. commercial real estate market "since the wrenching 1991-1992 industry depression."

Banks and other financial companies have not had the problems with commercial properties in this recession that they have had with residential properties. But many building owners, while struggling with more vacancies and less rental income, will need to refinance commercial mortgages in the coming year. The persistent chill in lending from banks to the credit markets will make that difficult - even for borrowers who are current on their payments - setting the stage for loan defaults.

The prospect bodes poorly for banks, along with pension funds, insurance companies, hedge funds and others holding the loans or pieces of them that were packaged and sold as securities.

Jeffrey DeBoer, chief executive of the Real Estate Roundtable, a lobbying group in Washington, is asking for government assistance for his industry and warns of the potential impact of defaults. "Each one by itself is not significant," he said, "but the cumulative effect will put tremendous stress on the financial sector."

Stock analysts say commercial real estate is the next ticking time bomb for banks, which have already received hundreds of billions of dollars in capital and other assistance from the U.S. government. Big banks - like Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley - each hold tens of billions of dollars in commercial real estate bonds, which were sliced and diced into securities. The banks also invested directly in properties.

Regional banks may be an even bigger concern. Over the past decade, they barreled their way into commercial real estate lending after being elbowed out of the credit card and consumer mortgage business by national players. Their weighting in commercial real estate has nearly doubled in the past six years, according to government data.

Just as home loans were pooled, then carved up and sold to investors as securities over the past two decades, commercial property loans were repackaged for the financial markets. In 2006 and 2007, nearly 60 percent of commercial property loans were turned into securities, according to Trepp, a research firm that tracks mortgage-backed securities.

Now that the market for those securities has dried up, borrowers cannot easily roll over the loans that are coming due. Many commercial property owners will face a dilemma similar to that of today's homeowners who cannot easily get mortgage relief because their loans were sliced and sold to many different parties. There often is not a single entity with whom to negotiate because investors have different interests.

By many accounts, building owners have been caught off guard by how quickly the market has deteriorated in recent weeks.

Rising vacancy rates were expected in Orange County, California, a center of the subprime mortgage crisis, and New York, where the now-shrinking financial industry dominates office space. But vacancies are also suddenly climbing in Houston and Dallas, which had been shielded from the economic downturn until recently by skyrocketing oil prices and expanding energy businesses.

"The economic recession is so widespread that we believe virtually every market in the country will see a rise in vacancy rates of between two and five percentage points by mid-2009," said Bill Goade, chief executive of CresaPartners, which advises corporations on leasing and purchasing office space.

Effective rents, which have already started to fall, are expected to decline 30 percent or more across the country from the euphoric days of the real estate boom, according to real estate brokers and analysts. That is making it all the more difficult for owners, who projected ever-rising rents when they financed their office buildings, hotels, shopping centers and other commercial property. Owners typically pay only the interest on loans of five, seven or 10 years, and refinance the big principal payments necessary when the loans come due.

Without new financing, owners will have few options other than to try to negotiate terms with their lenders or hand over the keys to banks and bondholders.

Among commercial properties, the most troubled have been hotels and shopping centers, where anemic sales and bankruptcies by retailers are leading to more vacancies and where heavily leveraged mall operators, like General Growth Properties and Centro, are under intense pressure to sell assets. But analysts are increasingly worried about the office market.

The Real Estate Roundtable sees a rising risk of default and foreclosure on an estimated $400 billion in commercial mortgages that come due this year. DeBoer, the group's leader, said building owners are by and large making their loan payments. It is the refinancing that is worrisome.

Most loans, he said, were made at 50 percent to 70 percent of property values. At the top of the market in 2006 and 2007, though, some owners took advantage of available credit and borrowed 90 percent or more of the value of a property, a strategy that works only in a rising market. Since then, property values have dropped 20 percent, DeBoer said.

Where possible, owners are trying to extend loans. A lender might agree to extend the term on a 10-year commercial mortgage, for example, if the borrower remains current on his payments and can make an equity payment to compensate for the decline in the building's value.

Already, $107 billion worth of office towers, shopping centers and hotels are in some form of distress, ranging from mortgage delinquency to foreclosure, according to Real Capital Analytics.

New York, the biggest market by far, leads the pack with 268 troubled properties valued at $12 billion. But there are 19 more cities, including Atlanta, Denver and Seattle, with more than $1 billion worth of distressed commercial properties. Analysts are especially concerned about buildings like 666 Fifth Avenue, One Park Avenue and the Riverton complex in New York, the Pacifica Tower in San Diego and the Sears Tower in Chicago, which were acquired in 2006 and 2007 with mortgage-backed financing based on future rents rather than existing income.

"Many of those buildings are basically underwater," said Goade of CresaPartners. "The price they paid was too high to begin with. There's no way anyone would lend that kind of money today."

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At Wa-Mu, EVERYTHING Was Approved

The stories are just starting to trickle out. Meth-snorting loan officers approving pretty much anything. Of particular interest locally because it mentions Bay area Wa-Mu locations, including Sarasota.

In 10 years there will be plenty of books written and plenty of perspective on exactly how insane the whole thing was.

From the New York Times (registration required):

The Reckoning
By Saying Yes, WaMu Built Empire on Shaky Loans
By PETER S. GOODMAN and GRETCHEN MORGENSON

“We hope to do to this industry what Wal-Mart did to theirs, Starbucks did to theirs, Costco did to theirs and Lowe’s-Home Depot did to their industry. And I think if we’ve done our job, five years from now you’re not going to call us a bank.”

— Kerry K. Killinger, chief executive of Washington Mutual, 2003

SAN DIEGO — As a supervisor at a Washington Mutual mortgage processing center, John D. Parsons was accustomed to seeing baby sitters claiming salaries worthy of college presidents, and schoolteachers with incomes rivaling stockbrokers’. He rarely questioned them. A real estate frenzy was under way and WaMu, as his bank was known, was all about saying yes.

Yet even by WaMu’s relaxed standards, one mortgage four years ago raised eyebrows. The borrower was claiming a six-figure income and an unusual profession: mariachi singer.

Mr. Parsons could not verify the singer’s income, so he had him photographed in front of his home dressed in his mariachi outfit. The photo went into a WaMu file. Approved.

“I’d lie if I said every piece of documentation was properly signed and dated,” said Mr. Parsons, speaking through wire-reinforced glass at a California prison near here, where he is serving 16 months for theft after his fourth arrest — all involving drugs.

While Mr. Parsons, whose incarceration is not related to his work for WaMu, oversaw a team screening mortgage applications, he was snorting methamphetamine daily, he said.

“In our world, it was tolerated,” said Sherri Zaback, who worked for Mr. Parsons and recalls seeing drug paraphernalia on his desk. “Everybody said, ‘He gets the job done.’ ”

At WaMu, getting the job done meant lending money to nearly anyone who asked for it — the force behind the bank’s meteoric rise and its precipitous collapse this year in the biggest bank failure in American history.

On a financial landscape littered with wreckage, WaMu, a Seattle-based bank that opened branches at a clip worthy of a fast-food chain, stands out as a singularly brazen case of lax lending. By the first half of this year, the value of its bad loans had reached $11.5 billion, nearly tripling from $4.2 billion a year earlier.

Interviews with two dozen former employees, mortgage brokers, real estate agents and appraisers reveal the relentless pressure to churn out loans that produced such results. While that sample may not fully represent a bank with tens of thousands of people, it does reflect the views of employees in WaMu mortgage operations in California, Florida, Illinois and Texas.

Their accounts are consistent with those of 89 other former employees who are confidential witnesses in a class action filed against WaMu in federal court in Seattle by former shareholders.

According to these accounts, pressure to keep lending emanated from the top, where executives profited from the swift expansion — not least, Kerry K. Killinger, who was WaMu’s chief executive from 1990 until he was forced out in September.

Between 2001 and 2007, Mr. Killinger received compensation of $88 million, according to the Corporate Library, a research firm. He declined to respond to a list of questions, and his spokesman said he was unavailable for an interview.

During Mr. Killinger’s tenure, WaMu pressed sales agents to pump out loans while disregarding borrowers’ incomes and assets, according to former employees. The bank set up what insiders described as a system of dubious legality that enabled real estate agents to collect fees of more than $10,000 for bringing in borrowers, sometimes making the agents more beholden to WaMu than they were to their clients.

WaMu gave mortgage brokers handsome commissions for selling the riskiest loans, which carried higher fees, bolstering profits and ultimately the compensation of the bank’s executives. WaMu pressured appraisers to provide inflated property values that made loans appear less risky, enabling Wall Street to bundle them more easily for sale to investors.

“It was the Wild West,” said Steven M. Knobel, a founder of an appraisal company, Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson, that did business with WaMu until 2007. “If you were alive, they would give you a loan. Actually, I think if you were dead, they would still give you a loan.”

Click here to read the rest of the article.

A Not So Happy 2009? Yep.

I made the local paper today with an article predicting the year ahead. For perspective, I did fairly well in 2008 but, like a lot of other folks in my business down here, many of us are concerned about the prospects for the year ahead. I don't know if I agree with a 50% drop in values over the year, but I can see some significant price cuts in BOTH lease rates and square-footage selling prices.

From the Sarasota Herald Tribune:

Unhappy new year for commercial Analysts say this real estate sector faces the biggest challenges in '09

By Michael Braga

Published: Monday, December 22, 2008 at 1:00 a.m.

The commercial real estate market has suffered this year as total sales and lease rates of everything from shopping centers to car dealerships have fallen.

But if you think things were bad this year, just wait until 2009.

"The next meltdown we are going to see is in commercial," said Gordon Hester, a Siesta hard-money lender whose customers include both commercial and residential developers. "The value of commercial real estate will probably drop 50 to 60 percent."

Investors began pouring money into commercial real estate in 2006, just after the residential real estate market peaked. Like residential investors, these commercial players abandoned the notion that properties need to kick off enough revenue to cover carrying costs, Hester said.

Instead, they banked on the bet that real estate could be purchased for one price and sold for a much higher price in a relatively short period.

"Now investors are only willing to pay based in returns," Hester said. "For that to shake out, values have to drop."

Unfortunately, the end of the "appreciation model" in commercial real estate coincides with one of the worst economic downturns since the 1930s.

Unemployment is up, consumer confidence and spending is down, and owners of shopping centers, hotels and office buildings are already feeling the pinch.

"After the Christmas season, we are going to see a ton of retailers and restaurants file for bankruptcy or go out of business," said Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach-based real estate consultant. "Obviously this will affect shopping centers and strip centers and the office market."

Sales dropping

The deterioration of the commercial real estate sector already is showing up in declining sales.

Only 89 properties in Sarasota County changed hands in 2008 for a total of $131.3 million, a 47.5 percent drop in sales volume from the 109 properties that sold for $250.3 million in 2007.

Office buildings saw the largest drop in dollar terms, followed by hotels and shopping centers.

"The whole thing is being driven by two things: the credit situation, which is nowhere at the moment, and investor confidence," said Stan Rutstein, a commercial agent with Re/Max in Bradenton.

Rutstein pointed to the fact that Nate Benderson, Nathan Forbes and the Taubman Cos. recently announced they were postponing construction of the new University Town Center Mall.

"If developers like Benderson, Forbes and Taubman, who are national scope, are being cautious -- if they don't want to take a risk -- then smaller players are not going to take a risk, either," Rutstein said. "Two-thousand nine is going to be a very challenging year."

Rutstein said that the only way commercial properties are going to move is if sellers come down hard on price. For example, a client who was offered $1.6 million from a bank for an acre near Wal-Mart in 2006, might only get $600,000 for that same property today.

"But there aren't any takers because banks are out of the market," Rutstein said.

The same downward trend is also affecting lease rates for both office and retail space, said Anthony Migliore, a commercial agent with Coldwell Banker in Sarasota.

"Landlords and owners are getting very reasonable," Migliore said. "There was one case in which the owners of an office building in Lakewood Ranch gave one year free rent to the Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation in return for signing a long-term lease."

Of course, that is an extreme example, Migliore said. But it illustrates the kind of lengths landlords are willing to go to get space rented.

"They may not be able to sell the space, but at least they can get it leased and ride out the storm," Migliore said.

Vacancies on the rise

"If you are a shopping center owner and you evict someone this year, you're crazy," said George Huhn, a Venice-based commercial real estate agent. "Vacancies are going to go through the roof, and everyone will be competing for tenants."

A lot of landlords are opting to carry mom and pop retailers through the bad times with rent abatements, renegotiations of leases and forbearance agreements, Huhn said.

"They're just looking to keep the guy in business, because something is always better than nothing," Huhn said.

Retail sales in Sarasota County were down by nearly $70 million, or 11 percent, in September compared with the same month a year earlier, and that was before the financial crisis really took hold. So it is no wonder that retailers and landlords alike are struggling.

But as in the residential market where foreclosures have led to amazing deals for savvy investors, the collapse of the commercial real estate sector will provide ample opportunities for investors looking for deals.

"Banks already have commercial property available that they have foreclosed on," Rutstein said.

"A good amount of it is dirt that has plummeted in value."

For investors like Michael Averbuch, commercial land represents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

"The biggest game in town is commercial land," Averbuch said. "Banks in Southwest Florida are nothing more than walking corpses. They are sitting on land and developer loans -- most of which are in default, and lot of that land will hit the market this year.

"The stuff is so distressed, that it can't get more distressed."

PricewaterhouseCoopers: Credit Crisis Halts Deals

For every positive article, there's a negative. From MarketWatch.

Commercial break
Credit crunch, economic turmoil halts commercial real estate deals: report

By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Commercial real estate deals are, for the most part, on hold these days as buyers and sellers wait for the credit crunch to ease and the economy to rebound, according to a report released Thursday by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Financing problems are keeping some deals stalled, but other would-be buyers just aren't willing to take a chance on properties as the country deals with increased job losses and problems on Wall Street, according to the firm's quarterly Korpacz Real Estate Investor Survey. They're questioning tenant demand in the near term for just about every type of property, from office space to retail, as workers lose their jobs and consumers tighten their purse strings.

"Few investors expect problems in the financial markets to ease any time soon and even fewer expect debt availability and lending practices to return to where they were prior to the credit crunch," said Tim Conlon, partner and U.S. real estate sector leader for PricewaterhouseCoopers, in a news release. "Uncertainty has stalled investments and dramatically reduced sales and leasing activity."

The roller-coaster ride that the markets have been on this week is only making matters worse, said Susan Smith, editor-in-chief of the survey and a director in the PricewaterhouseCoopers real estate sector services group.
"This just adds to more growing concern, more hits on confidence, more uncertainty on how long it's going to take to clean everything up," Smith said in a phone interview. "You're not going to see properties trade until investors are confident that the worst is over."

In the face of uncertainty, those who have commercial property now will likely hold on to what they have and ride out the correction, she said. Some investors are expecting an increase in distressed sales involving assets with nonperforming loans or discouraged owners in the coming months -- something that investors with capital on their hands may view as buying opportunities.

According to the report, the average overall capitalization rate showed a year-over-year uptick in an increasing number of markets. Higher cap rates typically mean lower values. Survey participants said they expected cap rates in each surveyed market to increase in the next six months.

That said, while the short-term out look is bleak, the long-term picture for commercial real estate is much brighter, Smith said.

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Paul Volcker et al: Resurrect RTC. V 2.0.

Probably one of the more sane things that's been proposed amidst the recent turmoil. Paul Volcker and some pretty heavy hitters chiming in on the idea. From the WSJ. Article continues with link below.

Resurrect the Resolution Trust Corp.
By NICHOLAS F. BRADY, EUGENE A. LUDWIG and PAUL A. VOLCKER

We are in the midst of the worst financial turmoil since the Great Depression. Absent bold action, matters could well get worse.

Neither the markets nor the ordinary diet of regulatory orders, bank examinations, rating downgrades and investigations can do the job. Extraordinary emergency actions by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to date, while necessary, are also insufficient to resolve the crisis.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the giants in the mortgage market, are overextended and now under new government protection. They are not in sufficiently robust shape to meet all the market's needs.

The fact is that the financial system needs basic, long-term reform, but right now the system is clogged with enormous amounts of toxic real-estate paper that will not repay according to its terms. This paper, in turn, is unable to support huge quantities of structured financial instruments, levered as much as 30 times.

Until there is a new mechanism in place to remove this decaying tissue from the system, the infection will spread, confidence will deteriorate further, and we will have to live through the mother of all credit contractions. This contraction will undercut the financial system, and with it, the broader economy that so far has held up reasonably well.

There is something we can do to resolve the problem. We should move decisively to create a new, temporary resolution mechanism. There are precedents -- such as the Resolution Trust Corporation of the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the Home Owners Loan Corporation of the 1930s. This new governmental body would be able to buy up the troubled paper at fair market values, where possible keeping people in their homes and businesses operating. Like the RTC, this mechanism should have a limited life and be run by nonpartisan professional management.

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100% Financing? In Miami? In This Market?

Apparently the answer is "yes", of course with some exceptions. Read on...

BY DOUGLAS HANKS AND ELAINE WALKER
dhanks@MiamiHerald.com

A day after one of the country's biggest investment banks collapsed, Graham Cos. CEO Stuart Wyllie readied for a conference call with lenders over his request for 100 percent financing of a new 270-unit residential building.

He wasn't worried.

''There's still money to borrow,'' Wyllie said, adding he expects to get three or four offers to loan the full $35 million needed to build the new Lakehouse Apartments complex in Miami Lakes. Banks are ``meeting with us and returning our phone calls.''

Wyllie admits he's far less confident than a year ago. But his prediction of a chummy chat with a lender reflects an overlooked element to the current credit crisis: Deals continue to get done, even in one of the nation's most stigmatized real estate markets.

''Credit's difficult now compared to two years ago -- that goes without saying,'' said David Dabby, a real estate analyst in Coral Gables with a number of banks as clients. ``But if a project has good economic characteristics to it, credit is available.''

GRIM CIRCUMSTANCES

This week's demise of Lehman Brothers shocked Wall Street and reinforced the grim circumstances gripping South Florida's economy. The New York investment bank backed a number of large local projects, and its demise sparked predictions of even more pullback by lenders.

But local developers and bank consultants viewed the Lehman collapse as just another eddy in an already roiled real estate industry, where many players are scrambling to survive but some continue to expand.

The planned Village at Gulfstream Park has turned to the city of Hallandale Beach for help building its $1 billion retail and residential complex. Developer Forest City Enterprises has asked the city for financial incentives to pay for infrastructure or to help subsidize retailers' rent.

''This is a unique time economically,'' said Will Voegele, vice president of development for Forest City.

Scott Sime, head of the Miami-Dade office for commercial brokerage CB Richard Ellis, said he's seeing brisk activity in the ''distressed'' sector -- that is, banks and developers trying to unload failed or struggling projects. Among would-be buyers: large investment funds eager to scoop up large blocks of condominiums for pennies on the dollar.

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Lehman Bankruptcy Puts Pressure On Apartment Investors

Cali, NY and DC investors likely to feel the pinch, pressure to sell and some value deterioration as Archstone assets start getting unloaded. They have a pretty large presence in the South Florida market as well; Lehman backed $226.5 million for construction of Donald Trump’s condo tower in Hollywood, $47 million for the new Canyon Ranch Miami Beach resort, and was part of the private consortium that infused $565 million into the Fontainebleau in Miami Beach. What happens from here is anyone's guess. From WSJ.

After Lehman, Banks Jettison
Commercial-Property Debt
By LINGLING WEI and MICHAEL CORKERY

The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. is adding pressure on banks and other financial institutions to sell off their holdings of commercial real-estate debt, as they try to stay out ahead of the Wall Street firm's expected liquidation of its $30 billion portfolio.

The likely rush to sell is driving down the already battered market, forcing financial firms to take additional losses mated $150 billion worth of commercial real-estate debt on their books as the once relatively resilient pocket of the property sector now comes under heavy fire.

"As a result of Lehman's bankruptcy, other financial institutions will feel more pressure to sell assets at deeper discounts sought by investors," said Spencer Garfield, a managing director of Hudson Realty Capital, a New York-based real-estate fund manager.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Tuesday said it had reduced its portfolio of commercial mortgages and securities by about $2 billion to $14.7 billion as of the end of its third quarter, which ended Aug. 29, taking a $325 million loss.

"It sure doesn't feel like the real-estate markets are improving anytime soon, and we will reduce that class going forward even if we think they are good assets," said Goldman Sachs Chief Financial Officer David Viniar. "Those assets are marked where they can be sold."

Lehman's collapse was the most dramatic sign so far that the financial crisis sparked by residential real estate is spilling over into office buildings, strip malls, hotels and other commercial real estate. The firm was one of the most aggressive lenders on Wall Street, making whole loans, bridge loans and packaging debt into commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS.

About $4.3 billion of Lehman's $30 billion portfolio consists of securities. The prospect of that getting liquidated sparked the latest selloff in the CMBS market, as evidenced by widening spreads between the benchmark U.S. Treasury notes and the CMBX, a credit-market index that tracks the value of the bonds.

Apartment-building investors also are likely to feel significant pressure to sell as Lehman unloads its debt and equity pieces of the $22 billion purchase of Archstone, the large multifamily company with buildings concentrated in Washington, D.C., California and New York City. For months, Archstone had tried to sell assets to reduce debt, but met mixed success. It resisted for months lowering its prices, even as buyers balked. It has sold some complexes but not as many as it hoped, according to a person familiar with Archstone.

Prices are now likely to soften. In markets with apartment buildings that compete with Archstone, "there is no question that if you need to sell assets, you will try to get ahead" of the Lehman selloff, said Jeffrey Spector, a real-estate analyst at UBS. "Every day that goes by there will be more pressure on pricing."

For most of this year, commercial real-estate debt has held up better than housing-related debt. Commercial property values haven't deteriorated as much as homes, thanks to the still-healthy cash flows of most properties, lack of overbuilding and low default rates.

Delinquencies have been mounting in loans tied to construction and land development, a major commercial real-estate category. At the nation's largest construction lender, Bank of America Corp., about half of its $13 billion home-builder portfolio are loans that "we are watching and paying special attention to, because there could be structural deficiency or a market deficiency," said Gene Godbold, president of Bank of America's commercial real-estate banking, in an interview.

Mr. Godbold emphasized that the bank has adequate capital to offset possible losses from its home-builder portfolio.

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Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged

Good deal. The Fed stared down the market and the market blinked. My earlier blog post reckoned rates would increase. Glad to see the news today.

Fed Keeps Rate at 2%, Rebuffing Call for Reduction

By Scott Lanman and Craig Torres

Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve left its main interest rate at 2 percent, rebuffing calls by some investors for an immediate cut after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s bankruptcy shook markets worldwide.

The Fed did signal it will consider a reduction in the future by acknowledging in its statement that strains in financial markets are increasing. The central bank also said that employment is weakening and export growth is slowing, and dropped a reference to elevated inflation expectations.

``Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and some slowing in export growth are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters,'' the Federal Open Market Committee said after meeting in Washington.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is trying to draw a line between interest rates, which will be set based on its assessment of the broader economy, and emergency operations designed to combat financial turmoil. Less than 48 hours before today's decision, the Fed expanded its lending to securities firms in the wake of Lehman's failure, including accepting equities as collateral for the first time.

Stocks initially fell after today's decision, then rallied after a report that the central bank is considering a loan to American International Group Inc. That would be a shift from yesterday, when officials were inclined against providing funds.

Lehman Failure May Hurt Commercial Real Estate Market

Second bottom coming? Interesting theory. Read the rest at Earth Times (link below).

By Ilaina JonasNEW YORK (Reuters) - A bankruptcy by Lehman Brothers may prompt the sale of its $32.6 billion of commercial real estate investments, and that just may be the jolt the U.S. property market needs to get sales started again, some real estate executives said.But the elusive bottom that buyers and sellers have been waiting for could be short-lived and be followed by an even greater fall in prices until new lenders step in to fill the void left by the retreat of large banks from the market."There's a whole group of people looking to be vultures to pick Lehman's bones," said Jay Rollins, president of Denver-based JCR Capital, a boutique commercial real estate capital provider."The other half of the story is what's left of the financial infrastructure that's going to be in place to do transactions," he said.Lehman Brothers was teetering on the verge of bankruptcy early on Monday after Britain's Barclays Plc withdrew from talks to take over part of Lehman.As of August 31, Lehman held $32.6 billion in commercial real estate loans and equity. Most experts expect that under U.S. bankruptcy procedures, the investments will be sold slowly and not unloaded onto the market in one fell swoop."Once it goes into bankruptcy, there will be a lot of people with their hands all over the place," said Barry Gosin, CEO of real estate services company Newmark Knight Frank."It becomes a much more cumbersome process."But the sale of so many real estate investments may help set values of similar assets and break the standoff between potential buyers and sellers."I think it could very well be the moment when the spreads are wide enough for the money players to come in and say, 'OKnow the returns are good enough for us to go in and invest,"' Gosin said.

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Investors Confident About Florida's Future

Angel or vulture? You decide. It's certainly not a bad time to have cash, although I'm fairly certain commercial still has some room to drop. It sure ain't over. From MarketWatch.

Kitson & Partners and Their Investors Confident About Florida's Future
Capital partners commit $750 million for residential and retail acquisitions

PALM BEACH GARDENS, Fla., Sept 10, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- A leading institutional investor is demonstrating confidence in the long-term prospects for Florida's real estate market. Chicago-based real estate private equity investor Evergreen Real Estate Partners and its backers have committed $750 million to Palm Beach Gardens-based developer Kitson & Partners to pursue additional residential and commercial real estate development projects in Florida.

Named 2007 Developer of the Year by Real Estate Finance & Investment for its work on the Babcock Ranch project in Southwest Florida, Kitson & Partners has an established track record of conscientious master planning and development throughout the State of Florida. Kitson & Partners has acquired in excess of $900 million of residential and commercial assets within Florida over the past two years. The capital commitment puts Kitson & Partners in a strong position to close additional deals as the opportunities present themselves.

"In a tight credit market, land owners are looking for certainty," Syd Kitson, CEO of Kitson & Partners, explained. "If our company makes an offer, we can close the deal with the seller. We have the financial strength to finish what we start."

Kitson said the firm is targeting high quality locations throughout the State of Florida including raw land, entitled land and improved or semi- improved land for residential development. The company is currently developing 21,270 acres in Florida which will include 25,770 residential units. Kitson & Partners is also actively seeking to grow its retail property portfolio by acquiring stabilized and value-added shopping centers as well as considering joint venture development opportunities. Kitson & Partners currently owns and operates eleven shopping centers around the state.

SOURCE Kitson & Partners

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Buffett on the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Takeover

Just in case you missed it, here's The Oracle of Omaha on FBN discussing his take on the bailout. Parts 1 and 2.