Commercial REITS Back On The Move

Recharged REITs

Peter Slatin, 06.03.09, 06:00 PM EDT
Forbes Magazine dated June 22, 2009

Excitement has returned to the market in anticipation of the bargains to be found in distressed commercial buildings.

When it comes to investor interest, the resilience of real estate never ceases to amaze me. Despite the recent devastating downturn in demand for space, real estate investment trusts are coming back with a vengeance. There have been $10 billion in new equity offerings this year, mostly since March. According to research firm SNL Financial, the median price gain for REITs that sold equity was 35% from Mar. 31 through May 26. SNL's Equity REIT index, representing all U.S. publicly traded REITs, has gained 28%. This rebound comes after a devastating two years in which REIT shares lost 75% of their value.

What you are seeing is more than a turnaround in investor attitudes and a need by issuers to deleverage their balance sheets. Many REITs intend to finance the purchase of distressed commercial real estate at bargain prices. My firm, Real Capital Analytics, has more than $90 billion of commercial property listed as "troubled" in its database.

Among the REITs raising equity capital: mall giant Simon Properties, mall and office building owner Vornado and shopping center landlord Kimco. Joining them are smaller companies like Acadia Realty Trust ( AKR - news - people ), Digital and Kite Realty. All these companies are sending a message that they intend to be players in the newly reshaped realty market. The public entities, interestingly, are having a field day at a time when private equity partnerships are hard-pressed to raise new capital.

You are witnessing another phenomenon at work. The REIT world is beginning a Darwinian bifurcation into companies that will, and companies that won't, make the transition from an old-style business model rife with opacity, cowboy swagger and good-old-boy networks into a transparent and more efficient business platform. For real estate investors the new reality will be no less hard-knuckled or even ruthless than it has been for decades. For many years real estate has been a shadowy business. It's often been difficult to understand just where the money comes from or where and how it is spent. Public vehicles, while still capable of cloaking a lot of activity, are inherently more accessible and visible than private investment funds.

Before you charge headlong back into REITs be aware that the business is not yet out of the woods. The global recession is real and commercial; office and residential REITs will continue to feel pain. The average REIT will see a small shrinkage this year in earnings, as measured by adjusted funds from operations (net income plus depreciation, minus maintenance-level capital expenditures).

Two REITs that recently tapped capital markets that I favor are shopping center REIT Regency Centers (34, REG) and industrial property owner AMB Property (17, AMB). Both have smart management, high-quality properties and strong balance sheets. They are now clearly ahead of their peers. Regency is priced at 13 times likely adjusted FFO for 2009. AMB also goes for 13 times likely adjusted FFO.

Link