Long, Hot Summer

CoStar recently polled some real estate experts and their findings are less than encouraging for the COMRE market. In fact, some of this is downright scary, depressing stuff. Below is an excerpt, follow the link below to read the entire article.

Despite Promising Signs, Many Wary that Recession's Knockout Punch Could Still Come
Commercial Real Estate Industry Says Recovery is Not Around the Corner

By Mark Heschmeyer
June 17, 2009
The End Is Near (for This Recession).

So read some of the economic placards that have been trotted out in policy statements these days with catchphrases such as 'Sustainable Recovery.' 'Recession Is Coming To An End.' 'Policy Actions Having an Effect.' 'Seeing Green Shoots of Growth.' and 'The Crisis Has Stabilized.' Many pointed to the more than 2,000-point climb in the Dow Industrial Average over the last three months as proof that federal stimulus measures appeared to be having an effect in rousing the slumping economy.

Just this week, chief economists from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co., PNC Financial Services Group, Morgan Stanley and others said they expect the economy to "recover from its deep slump by late summer." The group that makes up the Economic Advisory Committee of the American Bankers said they expect the nation's gross domestic product (GDP) to increase 0.5% in the July-September quarter -- this after falling a projected 1.8% in the April-June period.

snip...

No Consumer, No Recovery

The bottom has not been reached in retail. Vacancies in the Whittier area are increasing and rents are still headed downward.
David Johnson, Partner at Johnson, O'Neill & Associates Inc. in Downey, CA

An alternative opinion to a quick 1.5- to 2-year recovery touted by many groups is that there can be no recovery because of the decline in consumer spending due to an individual's perceived loss on their net worth based on their home value.
Brian H. Strout, Acquisition Manager at Sciens Real Estate Management in Greenville, SC

The long and short of it is that so far, this seems like a recovery without the consumer. And I just don't think that in an economy driven 70% to 80% by the consumer, that a consumer-less recovery is possible. The credit card default rates are another telltale sign of mounting problems. Americans are running out of spending power from every angle (home equity, personal credit and now, income loss from job losses). And we haven't even seen the bubble start to burst in commercial.
Tony O'Neill, Broker at Voit Commercial Brokerage in San Diego, CA

I represent Healthy Fast Food Inc. They have a new branded concept they are opening up across the country called U-Swirl Frozen Yogurt. From a tenant point of view, HFFI along with my other clients are still very concerned about consumer spending, unemployment, consumer confidence, foreclosures, and the economy as a whole. If we have hit the bottom, then it is our view that we are going to stay there and bounce for quite a long time. U Swirl is only doing screaming deals. The kind where the landlord is screaming, not the tenant.
Ron Opfer, CCIM, Broker with Coldwell Banker Premier Realty in Henderson, NV

My assessment is that the economy will pick up starting fourth quarter of 2009 but the employment situation will only start to increase during first quarter of 2010. I think the worst of the commercial real estate market is still yet to come. Commercial markets will be in recession through mid next year.
KC Sanjay, Senior Economic and Real Estate Analytics at Guaranty Bank in Dallas, TX
Property Fundamentals Weak and Getting Weaker

I don't think the end is anywhere in site for a commercial real estate bottom. The CMBS market has yet to even start clearing the defaults. when these sales really start, they will dwarf the RTC volume. What these properties will sell for in a market without leverage is anybody's guess. My feeling is that the 25% percent down of years gone by will remain the same, although in the future, that will be the whole price! Just when things may hit bottom in a year or two, we will most probably be faced with hyper inflation, which is at best a forced savings account for performing assets, but at worst an additional huge stress for non-performing real estate. What will a half empty office building be worth in a declining market when prime is 14%? It is a scary thought.
Andrew J. Segal, President of Boxer Property in Houston, TX

I do not believe the end of the recession is in sight yet. The new 90-day moratorium on residential foreclosures commencing just [this week] will only exasperate a more severe response of the residential markets' attempt for correction upon expiration of the 90-day moratorium. The commercial real estate correction has only just begun and it will be a painful and significant correction. I believe 2009 will prove to be the worst single year of the last 50 years. Keep in mind; every office job loss represents a minimum of 250 rentable square feet, which goes idle and far more in other property types. When you do the math - it's staggering. Now factor in deleveraging the CRE universe, increased cap rates likely to settle in the 9% - 11% range based on stabilized income, increased cost of capital, high vacancy/availability rates, additional unemployment each month including continued historical layoff's post-bottom with a beginning recovery and the lack of debt and equity needed to help a correction along. . . what do you have? Answer = we have the "perfect CRE storm" and much restructuring to accomplish with no end in sight soon.
Richard A. Hawthorne, Principal of Hawthorne Cos. in Santa Monica, CA

The capital and debt markets for real estate remain dysfunctional. Moreover, there remains a large gap between the expectations of sellers and buyers. This means that virtually no arm's length commercial real estate sales are taking place. The small numbers of sales transactions that are reported mostly have been distressed sellers or workouts and do not establish an "arm's length" price or even a trading market. Until properties trade freely and with frequency, investors will remain reluctant to bid on acquisitions from fear of "catching a falling knife".
Louis J. Rogers, CEO of Rogers Realty Advisors LLC in Glen Allen, VA

Read the entire article here